End of A Nuclear Order

On the nights of June 12 and 13, the Israeli Air Force launched a massive air assault against Iran. The targets included nuclear scientists, Iranian generals, missile batteries, radars, military installations, and above all, nuclear facilities. The latter set of targets were a red line that hitherto nations avoided breaching. Yet, despite expectations of the same from Israel, Tel Aviv pushed ahead with strikes against all of Iran’s nuclear installations — Natanz, Bushehr, Isfahan, and the deep subterranean Fordow nuclear uranium enrichment facility, where Iran is believed to have stored a few nuclear weapons or at least possess all the technical accoutrements necessary to assemble nuclear bombs at short notice. Indeed, it has been noted that Iran was days away from assembling at least 10 nuclear bombs — a key factor that may have precipitated the Israeli attack, which Tel Aviv has dubbed a pre-emptive strike. This is the first time a country struck another country’s operational nuclear facilities where active enrichment and radioactivity was underway, and the latest Israeli strikes have caused radiation to remain underground at the Natanz and Isfahan facilities. Evidently, the last time a state struck another’s nuclear installation was when Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor facility in 1981, which was not loaded with fuel, obviating the release of radiation.

Penetrating the Fordow nuclear enrichment installation is the real test for the Israelis. It is buried well beneath the mountain terrain, in a facility reinforced by concrete at 60 m or more.

Israel’s prior destruction of Iranian air defences set the stage of the first wave of Israeli attacks — the cost inflicted by Israel against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure is substantial, but hardly devastating to the point of crippling Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme. Penetrating the Fordow nuclear enrichment installation is the real test for the Israelis. It is buried well beneath the mountain terrain, in a facility reinforced by concrete at 60 m or more. Only the United States Air Force B-2 stealth bombers can deliver, at most, two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators or “bunker busters” that are capable of penetrating up to 60 m or more, and they too would have to be delivered in a succession of attacks if the depth of the enrichment facility at Fordow is greater than that. Further, the Arak Heavy Water Facility has also shown no visible signs of serious damage as yet. Hostilities have continued into the fifth day. Israel has claimed that it has complete control over Tehran’s airspace. If the latter is true, it allows Israel to expand its target list to secure its objectives.

Following Israel’s very audacious assault, Iran’ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has retaliated with dozens of missiles and drone attacks against striking targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa. These strikes and counter-strikes, which are still underway, represent a significant departure from the past. Previously in April 2024, Iran and Israel exchanged air and missile salvos, but did not cross vital thresholds. In that instance, Iran especially relayed advance warning of an impending attack. This time, the consequences are more minatory not simply because of the range of targets that Israel struck and the magnitude of the destruction it has inflicted, but equally owing to the scope of Israel’s ambitions and aims that involve a regime change. This could very well catalyse a widening of the war and accelerate Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, which, as noted, Tehran was on the cusp of doing. Of course, that could happen unless Israel is able to — unambiguously or with absolute certitude — destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and possibly topple the revolutionary regime or force its capitulation. That would allow an internationally enforced termination of its enrichment programme and bomb-making capacity.

The key factors that paved the way for Israel’s latest assault against Tehran was the Israel Defence Forces methodically and brutally dismantling Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and, to a considerable extent, weakening the Houthis in Yemen.

Since hostilities are still underway, Israel’s technological prowess is more than offset by Iran’s geographic strategic depth as well as its large stockpile of 2,000 odd ballistic missiles — a sizeable number of which Tehran has already launched against Israel. The key factors that paved the way for Israel’s latest assault against Tehran was the Israel Defence Forces methodically and brutally dismantling Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and, to a considerable extent, weakening the Houthis in Yemen. Second, the Trump administration deceptively concealed its true intent by tacitly greenlighting the latest Israeli attack notwithstanding the fact that President Trump did give a 60-day window during which the US negotiated with Tehran, only to be frustrated by Iran’s delaying tactics to end its nuclear enrichment programme and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Consequently, Tel Aviv became more optimistic and seized the opportunity to mount the attack. Yet, the Iranian response with ballistic missile attacks, which have claimed several Israeli lives, has proved to be a formidable foil to Israeli successes, reflecting how demanding it is going to be for Tel Aviv to subdue its mortal adversary.

More consequentially and regardless of the denouement of the current Israel-Iran war, there are real implications for regional proliferation as well, because it could compel other countries such as Saudi Arabia (with Pakistani assistance) to quickly acquire an atomic capability that is rapidly deployable or something akin to a launch on warning posture. Egypt and Turkey too may reconsider their commitments under the Non-proliferation Treaty as non-nuclear weapon states. We are witnessing not only an end of the post-World War 2 nuclear order but also, most likely, the growing temptations to launch pre-emptive strikes against an adversary’s nuclear facilities. More hair-trigger nuclear postures might ensue among countries in the region and beyond.

This commentary originally appeared in Finanacial Express.

• Nuclear Security
• Middle East
• ballistic missile retaliation
• ballistic missile retaliation
• bunker buster bombs
• bunker buster bombs
• Fordow enrichment
• Fordow enrichment
• Iranian nuclear facilities
• Iranian nuclear facilities
• israel iran conflict
• Middle East escalation
• nuclear proliferation
• nuclear strike
• nuclear strike
• pre-emptive attack
• pre-emptive attack
• regime change

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