Introduction
In a year marked by widening inter-state conflicts and intensified great-power hostilities, India’s national security outlook remained complex. Even as the four-year-long border standoff with China in the Himalayas showed initial signs of thawing in 2024, it did little to bridge the trust gap or address the roots of India-China security competition. Beijing’s sustained military and nuclear modernisation, along with its ever-expanding collusion with Pakistan, necessitates that India maintain its guard. Compounding New Delhi’s threat perception is China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean and influence in India’s neighbourhood. The spectre of instability in India’s east, brought about by the violence in Manipur and the rapid spread of disorder in Bangladesh following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, only adds to these complications.
In India’s west, Pakistan remained mired in instability in 2024 aggravated by the state’s inability to tackle security challenges and stem economic decline. Yet, these precarious circumstances have not deterred the military establishment from carrying on with its anti-India terrorism campaign. The activation of militancy south of Pir Panjal and the continuing push for cross-border militant infiltration by the Pakistan Army has had unsettling consequences for Jammu and Kashmir’s security situation. These dynamics threaten to undo the gains that followed the constitutional amendments of August 2019. More importantly, any potential revival of militancy in Kashmir Valley will boost the terrorist propaganda that endures despite the significant decline in terrorist violence globally. Indeed, radicalisation has taken new channels, including social media propaganda, as seen in the stories of individuals apprehended last year in a spate of arrests across India of suspects belonging to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Perhaps the only silver lining in this sobering landscape has been the decisive blow dealt by India’s security forces to Left-Wing Extremism, with Chhattisgarh leading the heightened crackdown on the Naxalites’ cadres and hideouts. Pursuing the battle to its logical end will require efforts not just on the security front but also economic development.
Overall, despite resource constraints, India’s national security establishment has exerted earnest efforts to respond to the evolving security landscape. The military’s push for jointness and theaterisation, as well as moves to bolster naval capabilities reveal its commitment to more effectively tackle the China challenge. Likewise, the focus on inter-agency coordination and intelligence-led operations in Naxalite-affected regions and Jammu and Kashmir has yielded pivotal results. The National Investigation Agency’s steadfast clampdown on terrorist financing and money laundering has also dented the capabilities of terrorists and their ecosystem of supporters. As the developments in Manipur and Bangladesh show, however, New Delhi must become nimbler in anticipating emerging trends and adopting more appropriate and proactive measures. Reforms in the intelligence apparatus that complement these efforts are also imperative.
This also holds true in the domain of critical and emerging technologies, where a raft of advancements has taken place in cyber, drones, space, quantum computing, and chemical and biological weapons. New Delhi has ramped up its capabilities in the last decade, particularly in the cyber and space domains. It must adopt a similar strategy for its R&D in other technological innovations.
This inaugural edition of Annual Trends in India’s National Security brings together ORF’s subject matter experts to decipher the vital trends that were palpable in their respective areas in 2024. The report is divided into two sections. The first section assesses the most crucial challenges to India’s national security. Essays in this section cover geographies like Jammu and Kashmir, the Northeast, China, and the Indian Ocean region while also understanding related issues such as defence reforms, cybersecurity, terrorism, Left-Wing Extremism, and intelligence. The second section delves into key technological domains such as space, nuclear, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and chemical and biological weapons. The aim is to illustrate important technological developments not only in the domestic arena but beyond, and gauge their national security implications for India.
It is ORF’s intention to release this publication annually, to spur meaningful conversations on national security issues and stimulate debate about the strategies and pathways that the country’s policymakers must craft for a secure and stable India.
Read the report here.
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