Ambitious expansion meets internal divisions as the bloc strives to redefine global power dynamics.
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The year 2024 has witnessed significant developments in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc, marking a defining chapter in its evolution. As global power dynamics continue to shift amidst economic turbulence, geopolitical conflicts, and technological advancements, BRICS has captured the world’s attention as a potential counterweight to Western-led institutions.
With its ambitious expansion efforts to include six new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Argentina—BRICS appears poised to reshape the contours of global governance. Argentina declined its invitation, while Saudi Arabia’s membership remains dubious, balancing its ties with BRICS, China, and Russia and its relationship with the United States. However, the question remains: Can the bloc move beyond rhetoric to deliver substantive outcomes?
The BRICS countries, home to nearly 42% of the world’s population, are an increasingly influential force. Together, they account for 37.3% of global GDP (purchasing power parity) and control significant shares of global trade, energy production, and critical mineral reserves. In 2024, the International Monetary Fund projected that global economic growth would increasingly depend on the BRICS bloc, underscoring its potential to drive development in the Global South.
The expanded BRICS members control nearly half of global oil production, dominate the market for critical minerals such as lithium, and account for a substantial share of international goods trade.
The bloc’s recent expansion, dubbed “BRICS Plus,” enhances its energy and resource profile. Collectively, the expanded BRICS members control nearly half of global oil production, dominate the market for critical minerals such as lithium, and account for a substantial share of international goods trade. Such economic heft presents an opportunity to challenge the dollar’s dominance, mainly through the development of digital currencies.
BRICS has achieved notable milestones, particularly in trade and investment. Intra-BRICS trade has doubled over two decades, accounting for 40% of global trade in goods in 2022. With establishing the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS nations have mobilised over $71 billion to finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects, creating a robust framework for economic cooperation. In the digital economy, too, BRICS countries have made significant strides, with almost universal coverage of 3G and 4G networks and the ongoing rollout of 5G.
Despite its growing influence, BRICS faces significant hurdles. The bloc’s political heterogeneity is both a strength and a liability. Strained relations between India and China, as well as between Saudi Arabia and Iran, exemplify the internal divisions that complicate unified decision-making. Moreover, divergent economic priorities and ideological differences raise questions about the bloc’s ability to maintain cohesion, especially with its expanded membership.
Geopolitical tensions further complicate BRICS’s trajectory. While the bloc aims to promote a multipolar world order, it risks being perceived as “anti-Western,” particularly given China’s dominance within the grouping. For India, balancing its leadership role in BRICS with its strategic interests in the West and its apprehensions about China’s Belt and Road Initiative presents a delicate challenge.
While BRICS has made significant progress in fostering a multipolar global order, its ability to deliver on its lofty ambitions remains uncertain. The bloc must address internal divisions, enhance cooperation, and ensure its initiatives translate into tangible outcomes. Whether through innovative financial mechanisms, expanded trade, or reformed global governance structures, BRICS must demonstrate its capacity to act as a transformative force for the Global South.
The future of BRICS lies in its ability to balance diversity with unity and ambition with pragmatism. If successful, the grouping could redefine global power structures and become a cornerstone of an equitable world order. If not, its influence may remain limited to rhetoric, leaving the promise of a truly multipolar world unfulfilled.
This commentary originally appeared in ISPI.
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Soumya Bhowmick is a Fellow and Lead, World Economies and Sustainability at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy (CNED) at Observer Research Foundation (ORF). He ...
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