The re-rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a stark reminder of how the more the world changes, the more it remains the same. In the end, America will move on and India will manage. But it is the ordinary Afghans who had placed their faith in the goodwill of these nations that are left to fend for themselves.
Myth-making is an integral part of international relations. Some myths emerge organically in response to certain foreign policy manoeuvres. But some myths are created deliberately to sustain narratives that have no legs to stand on.
For the last few years, sections of the strategic community in the West and especially the US started making the case about the need to engage with the Taliban in order to reach a sustainable solution to the Afghanistan crisis.
This case was premised on the myth that the Taliban had evolved from their earlier 1990s avatar and therefore were more amenable to a negotiated settlement to bring an end to the ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan.
This myth was always more about the war fatigue in the body politic of the US than it was about the ground realities. But it was sold as the new strategic paradigm in a part of the world that few in the West understood or even wanted to understand.
This myth-making resulted in a back and forth between the various bureaucracies in Washington first: the civilians versus the military; the State Department versus the Pentagon; the Republicans versus the Democrats.
It led to the Obama Administration talking about withdrawing troops from Afghanistan but ending up in a last-minute surge. It led to the Trump Administration coming to office talking about ending the war but then staying put for a while before finally signing an ill-conceived pact with the Taliban that made the Afghan government in Kabul a veritable sitting duck.
And ultimately, it led to the Biden Administration deciding within months of coming to office that it’s time to pack up and leave Afghanistan wholesale without any serious thought to the consequences.
Ignoring the warnings of his generals, Biden decided to exit Afghanistan in a hurry. And while explaining his decision, he has continued to insist a Taliban takeover of the country was not inevitable as the Afghan government troops were as “well-equipped as any army in the world”.
Ignoring the warnings of his generals, Biden decided to exit Afghanistan in a hurry. And while explaining his decision, he has continued to insist a Taliban takeover of the country was not inevitable as the Afghan government troops were as “well-equipped as any army in the world”.
Now, with Afghanistan reeling as the Taliban knock on the doors of Kabul with their trademark brutality, the myth perpetrated by the West has finally been put to rest.
The Taliban remain as brutal, as medieval and as intolerant as they were before. Reminiscent of the 1990s, the radical Islamist group with an intent of installing an Islamic Caliphate in Afghanistan, is once again busy imposing its regressive ideas and targeting minorities and women.
They clearly have no interest in political reconciliation with other stakeholders and the only language they seem to understand is one of force. The momentum is on their side and they feel no real need to engage in the “peace process” – a process that was never about peace in the first place.
The Taliban view the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a victory over the most powerful military in the world. And have internalized the message that ideological agenda can be carried forward through the use of force.
This was not Biden’s war but the spectacle of US troops evacuating American diplomats and civilians, after a 20-year engagement, spending $800 billion and loss of around 2300 soldiers, will result in this being viewed as Biden’s surrender to the marauding forces of the Taliban.
Biden Administration’s defence, getting feeble by the day, however, continues. Recently, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, “If the Taliban claim to want international legitimacy, these actions are not going to get them the legitimacy they seek. They do not have to stay on this trajectory. They could choose to devote the same energy to the peace process as they are to their military campaign. We strongly urge them to do so.”
Apparently, no one has informed Washington that there is no “peace process” and the Taliban are least bothered about “legitimacy.”
The geopolitical fallout from the Taliban’s success in forcing out America will have implications far beyond Afghanistan as jihadists around the world will get emboldened and seek to emulate this model.
An Islamic Caliphate in Afghanistan will reverberate across multiple geographies, challenging most nations. It also remains a fact that whatever the Taliban would have said in the past, they are unlikely to deny sanctuaries in Afghan territory to extremist groups.
From Pakistan to Central Asia, foreign fighters will find a new destination. This is not a regional problem but a global challenge that cannot be ignored, howsoever hard Washington may try.
And then there is Pakistan and its military-intelligence complex that is relishing the latest turn of events, not realizing that their myopic approach is likely to bring Pakistan even more misery. The inability of the West to take on Pakistan has, perhaps, been the single most important factor in the disaster that is now unfolding in Afghanistan.
In its desperation to get out, Washington decided to lean on Pakistan’s promises, knowing full well that Rawalpindi has no intention of keeping them. As the Biden Administration faces its reckoning with the collapse of all that was achieved in Afghanistan over the last two decades, Pakistan’s duplicity stands out as the key variable that destroyed Afghanistan and brought ignominy to the US.
India, of course, has been right in its assessment throughout. Its assertions that the real source of the problem in Afghanistan is Pakistan, that the “peace process” is a sham, that the Taliban has not really evolved have all proven to be prescient.
But New Delhi’s inability to chart out an independent course also means its allies are left asking for help it cannot provide. The political consensus in the country that India should not put troops on the ground also means New Delhi is marginal when the chips are down.
New Delhi’s inability to chart out an independent course also means its allies are left asking for help it cannot provide. The political consensus in the country that India should not put troops on the ground also means New Delhi is marginal when the chips are down
The debate in India still has not moved beyond engaging the Taliban or not. For the last two decades, it is India only that has undercut itself by believing that only economic partnership and capacity building can help Afghanistan tide over the crisis.
Asking the US to continue fighting in Afghanistan when we ourselves are unwilling to stand up for our interests is the hypocrisy of the highest order. Worse, it leaves us vulnerable when the other side is willing to use all instrumentalities at their disposal.
In the end, America will move on and India will manage. But it is the ordinary Afghans who had placed their faith in the goodwill of these nations that are left to fend for themselves.
For all the talk of liberal world order, its defenders are not yet ready to stand for their values. While the extremists are ready to use swords to push for ideological purity.
The re-rise of a Talibanised Afghanistan is a stark reminder of how the more the world changes, the more it remains the same.
This commentary originally appeared in CNBCTV18.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...
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