Rethinking Non-Alignment in South Asia Amid Uncertainty in Pakistan

As hostilities escalate between India and Pakistan, South Asian countries which had been quick to condemn and criticise the terror attacks in Pahalgam, are yet to condemn the perpetrator — Pakistan. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal have continued to maintain neutrality and expressed the need to de-escalate.

In the past, India’s South Asian neighbours — Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh — have remained publicly neutral when India and Pakistan have gone to war. Bhutan’s support to India during the 1971 war and the Taliban’s passive support to Pakistan during the Kargil war are the few exceptions. However, this policy of non-alignment seems severely misplaced in the current regional and world order. The three factors that influenced their policy are becoming increasingly irrelevant.

Bhutan’s support to India during the 1971 war and the Taliban’s passive support to Pakistan during the Kargil war are the few exceptions.

In the Cold War era, Pakistan emerged as a reasonable trade, development, and defence partner to Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, (post-1975) Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Today, however, Pakistan is the hub of extremism and cross-border terrorism, which has become a nuisance to its neighbours and deterred investments in itself. Pakistan continues to witness severe long-term structural issues with looming external debts.

Other South Asian countries are overtaking Pakistan on multiple economic indicators. For instance, between 2001 and 2023, Bangladesh’s economy grew from $54 billion to $437 billion, and India grew from $500 billion to $3.5 trillion. Pakistan’s economy grew from $97 billion to a mere $338 billion USD. In fact, in 2023, its growth rate was -0.2 per cent. For more than three decades, the per capita income and investment rate in Pakistan have been lower than that of India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. The country is also experiencing political instability, and the military has continued dictating most of its politics and security calculations.

Two, India’s neighbours relied on Pakistan to assert its autonomy and push back against India and its influence in the region. This calculation emerged from the fact that India is a significantly powerful country, and a lack of a revisionist power like Pakistan would have given it a free hand in the region. Perceptions of domination by India, no matter how misplaced, necessitated their ties with Pakistan. Lack of importance to South Asia from other powers further mandated these countries to bet on Islamabad. With the Indo-Pacific becoming important, South Asia is evolving as a geopolitical hotspot. In fact, over the last two decades, China has emerged as a major and viable alternative to India in the region across all areas of cooperation. By 2022, China accounted for 47 per cent of the total outbound FDI for the region. Other powers like the US, Japan, Australia, and the EU have also demonstrated interest in expanding their presence. In other words, South Asian neighbours have more alternatives to balance and diversify relations with India.

Indian influence, assistance, and connectivity have, therefore, gradually increased as Pakistan’s economy continues to be in deep distress.

On its part, the entry of new powers is compelling Delhi to be more accommodating of its neighbours and their interests. It has prioritised connectivity, economic linkages, and assistance in its “Neighbourhood First” policy. By 2023, India had offered $8 billion to Bangladesh and $1.6 billion to Nepal in credit lines. To Bhutan, India has pledged $1 billion for its 13th five-year plan. India has also offered assistance worth $850 million to the Maldives and $4.5 billion to Sri Lanka to help them recover economically. Indian influence, assistance, and connectivity have, therefore, gradually increased as Pakistan’s economy continues to be in deep distress.

Finally, India’s South Asian neighbours believe that good relations with Pakistan would eventually contribute to more regional stability and integration, especially vis-à-vis SAARC. As a result, they have continued to push Delhi and Islamabad to revive the organisation, despite the latter being the biggest challenge to regional stability and integration. Islamabad has used SAARC to politicise Kashmir, as seen with the leaders’ video conference in 2020, and has continued nurturing terrorism. These policies have hindered SAARC’s functionality and motivated India to explore alternatives. On their part, despite being victims of cross-border terrorism, South Asian countries are failing to call out Islamabad for hindering SAARC and promoting terrorism. This has only encouraged Pakistan to continue its policy and contribute to the current regional instability and (dis)integration.

South Asian countries continue to see Pakistan as a major defence partner, especially in military training and maritime cooperation. In fact, as tensions escalated between India and Pakistan, an annual defence dialogue took place between Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the last week of April, and a military delegation from Pakistan reportedly visited Nepal. That said, the benefits that Pakistan could bring to the region are rapidly declining. As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, it is perhaps time for South Asian countries to re-evaluate the merits of their non-aligned and neutral policy, and ask themselves how best to further their interests, regional peace, and integration.

This commentary originally appeared in The Indian Express.

• International Affairs
• India
• Pakistan
• south Asia
• cross-border terrorism
• geopolitical shift South Asia
• India regional influence
• India-Pakistan tensions
• Neighbourhood First policy
• non-alignment policy
• pakistan economic crisis
• regional instability
• SAARC deadlock
• South Asian neutrality

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