All’s not well between the US and Japan amid Trump’s return to power

US allies in Europe are growing anxious as the Trump phenomenon has struck the world like a lightning bolt once again. The focus is not solely on Europe, however; Trump’s campaign has turned its attention to US allies in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Japan, calling for diplomatic and economic reciprocity. This demand for reciprocity with Japan seems peculiar, especially in light of the two leaders’ February bilateral meeting, during which they pledged to work towards "a new golden age for US-Japan relations." However, remarks and events since the meeting have cast a shadow of uncertainty, indicating that things are not going well, regardless of the official bilateral statement emphasising friendliness.

Separating Reality from Rhetoric

While the diplomatic rhetoric around Ishiba’s successful visit to the US is indeed reflected in the joint statement, the reality since the meeting has diverged from expectations. In his second term, bilateral trade with Japan has become a contentious issue. Notably, just one week after their meeting, the US administration announced 25 per cent tariffs on imports of Japanese steel. Beyond trade frictions, some critical investments have also come under heightened scrutiny, including the USD 14.9 billion Nippon Steel deal. Trump’s unilateral announcement about Nippon abandoning its plans to buy was an attempt to brush the issue under the rug. However, despite opposition, the company’s insistence on proceeding with the deal suggests that the matter will not disappear anytime soon.

Trump’s unilateral announcement about Nippon abandoning its plans to buy was an attempt to brush the issue under the rug.

Furthermore, on the security front, Trump’s comments questioning Japan’s role as a trusted ally and the current bilateral security arrangement have added to concerns. He stated, ‘I love Japan. We have a great relationship with Japan … but they don’t have to protect us,’ effectively categorising Japan as a freeloading country. Besides this criticism, calls for increasing Japan’s defence expenditure to 3 per cent of GDP by Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for Undersecretary of Defence for Policy, have further contributed to tensions. This has been met with pushback from the Japanese Prime Minister, who asserted, ‘[Japan] determines its defence spending, not at the direction of any other country.’ It is evident that Japan no longer enjoys the favour it did in Trump’s previous term.

Apart from the bilateral issues, the Trump administration’s handling of some critical issues, like Ukraine’s invasion by Russia and the increasing protectionism in the form of tariffs, has generated a lot of debates about the alliance with the US. Japan fears that with the return of Trumpian Mercantilism and Transactional diplomacy, the US is giving up its role as the leader of the free world, turning its back on free international trade and looking away from its security commitments. The US allies think the US backtracking further risks giving China and Russia an upper hand in the geopolitical and geoeconomic game.

These concerns have ignited fears of ushering in a different world order that favors the whims and fancies of revisionist states like China and Russia. Adding to this worry is Trump’s rejection of the existing world order, his oblivious attitude toward Ukraine's security concerns, and his justification of Russia’s illegal actions. All these intersecting issues have forced allies like Japan to question US reliability. Furthermore, taking into account the rise of China, the increasing risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait, and Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine, the concerns have only intensified.

Japan-US Ties in the Trumpian Era

Under the Biden administration, the US and Japan invested in expanding and strengthening the network of like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific, with the likes of South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines pitching in. However, Trump's presidency is more focused on demanding obeisance and reciprocity from allies than continuing its predecessor’s initiatives. This has left Japan wondering whether the current US administration is still committed to upholding the liberal international order it espoused for so long. Even other US allies, such as Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea, and Australia, are concerned with the legitimacy of security commitments, with many advocating for a more pragmatic approach. This shows that the allies' perception of the US is changing, forcing each nation to diversify its diplomatic engagements, including with China.

Under the Biden administration, the US and Japan invested in expanding and strengthening the network of like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific, with the likes of South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines pitching in.

Japan, for example, under Ishiba, has again started mending its ties with China, with whom the relations were frozen. For instance, the Japanese delegation visited for the 9th meeting of the China-Japan Ruling Party exchange mechanism after a hiatus of six years (2018). The delegation was led by Hiroshi Moriyama, Secretary General of the LDP, and Makoto Nishida, Secretary General of the Komeito Party, on an invitation from the communist party of China. Following the visit, Ishiba Shigeru, the Japanese Prime Minister, also expressed his intention to visit China, signalling a softening approach towards Beijing.

Future of US-Japan ties under Trump

The US remains the preferred partner despite the softening ties with China. The pros of the US and Japan alliance outrightly outweigh the cons in terms of both trade and security. Most Japanese companies continue to see the US as their biggest export market and have followed up with increased investments across sectors. Even among the public, the US stands as a trusted ally. Based on a survey conducted by the Foreign Ministry Survey of Japan, 52.1 percent of Japanese citizens still see economic cooperation with the US as critical. Japan’s Trade minister's visit to the US signals that despite the trade irritants, Tokyo prefers to engage the US in resolving disagreements.

The two primary focuses for Tokyo are to continue standing up for free international trade and extend moral and material support to Ukraine.

However, at the same time, Japan is adopting a more pragmatic approach, offsetting the space left by the US in the region, taking on greater responsibility by working closely with like-minded countries to uphold the international rules-based liberal order, which it sees as critical for protecting its national interests. The countries include both European and Indo-Pacific countries. The two primary focuses for Tokyo are to continue standing up for free international trade and extend moral and material support to Ukraine. All of this shows that the level of trust in the US is dropping, which in the short term may not have an impact but will seriously affect US perception in the long term.

For now, Japan will continue emphasising the importance of rules-based order and free international trade. It will also focus on strengthening its security alliance with the US and diversifying ties with other countries, including China.

This commentary originally appeared in Money Control.

• International Affairs
• China
• India
• Russia and Eurasia
• USA and Canada
• The Pacific, East and Southeast Asia
• defence spending
• diplomatic reciprocity
• economic cooperation
• free trade
• geopolitical shift
• liberal order
• Taiwan Strait
• Tariffs
• trade tensions
• transactional diplomacy
• Trump phenomenon
• US allies

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