A failed state’s fangs

The lull in Kashmir has been broken by the wailing cries of innocent tourists. Amidst the verdant climes of the valley lies a dreaded thought process that keeps rearing its ugly head time and again even when the situation seems normal on the surface. Elections had happened peacefully, the state and the Central governments seemed more in sync than before, and the locals had begun to enjoy a peace dividend that would have been difficult to comprehend a few years back. Most important perhaps was a new equilibrium that has been emerging in the relationship between Kashmir and the rest of India. The rhetoric of the past that Kashmir belongs to India was becoming a practical, operational reality as the rest of India embraced the beauty and the warmth of Kashmir with full abandon.

The abrogation of Article 370 had redrawn the regional map and India had made it clear to all who mattered that there was no real Kashmir problem.

And it is this new reality that troubles those who, for the past seven decades, have thrived on the political economy of violence and instability in Kashmir. The terror groups and their operators in Pakistan have found themselves moving to the margins of the political and the security discourse in India and the wider world. The abrogation of Article 370 had redrawn the regional map and India had made it clear to all who mattered that there was no real Kashmir problem. The problem that remained to be discussed with Pakistan was the territory occupied by Pakistan. The world had no time for Pakistan’s shenanigans on Kashmir. The more Rawalpindi spoke about Kashmir, the more it exposed its own burgeoning domestic challenges.

No wonder the Pakistani army chief, General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, had to express his desperation by reminding his country that Kashmir is the “jugular vein” of Pakistan, underlining the importance of remembering the sacrifices made for Pakistan’s formation. “Our forefathers, they have sacrificed immensely, and we have sacrificed a lot for the creation of this country, and we know how to defend it,” he told a recent gathering in Islamabad. But he did not stop there. The closet Islamist in him came out when he reiterated the logic of the two-nation theory. “Our forefathers thought we are different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations, we are not one nation,” he said.

The manner of killings in Kashmir suggests that the terror eco-system has been taking its cue from the Pakistani army chief with an eye towards bringing back some international attention to the conflict. It is not surprising that these attacks were carried out when the vice-president of the United States of America, J.D. Vance, was in India. Washington has lost all interest in Pakistan, even to the point where during the visit to the US by Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year, India’s western neighbour was not even part of the footnote. The world has bigger issues to worry about and American sights are on reconfiguring its domestic economy and the emerging contestation with China. It is India that has the heft to shape the emerging balance of power in partnership with the US.

Washington has lost all interest in Pakistan, even to the point where during the visit to the US by Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year, India’s western neighbour was not even part of the footnote.

One of the biggest success stories of the Modi government’s foreign policy over the last decade has been making Pakistan almost irrelevant in the Indian foreign policy calculus. After an initial attempt, Modi realised the futility of engaging with Pakistan and, in fact, made it a point to ignore Pakistan. India’s global stature has continued to grow based on its economic heft and diplomatic skills while the perception of Pakistan being a global nuisance has got strengthened with even its all-weather partner, China, finding it impossible to work with it. The fact that Pakistan’s close allies in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are now India’s strategic partners is also a testament to India’s growing profile on the global stage.

Domestically, a troubled economy and growing disaffection in Balochistan have dented the image of the Pakistani army even further. Here is an institution that claims to be the final guarantor of Pakistani security but has nothing to show for results. So the fallback on the Hindu-Muslim binary and Kashmir is a natural recourse for a failing institution.

It is now New Delhi’s turn to send out a clear message. It has several options on the table and all carry both risks and rewards. It has made operational some of these by announcing several retaliatory steps against Pakistan. As we see around the world today, wars are easy to start but conflict termination is not an easy task. Pakistan would be betting that India’s response will be predictable. India should ensure that it will be anything but predictable.

This commentary originally appeared in The Telegraph.

• International Affairs
• India
• Pakistan
• Article 370 abrogation
• India-Pakistan relations
• Kashmir conflict
• Kashmir peace process
• Kashmir violence
• Modi government foreign policy
• Pakistan political instability
• Pakistan-backed terrorism

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