The high influx of refugees into Thailand due to the Myanmar crisis continues with a fundamental division in the ASEAN regarding the issue.
Myanmar remains ensnared in conflict and violence, with Operation 1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance—an alliance between ethnic-armed groups Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army—last October signalling a significant shift in dynamics. Clashes have surged by approximately 67 percent since the 2021 coup as resistance groups intensify efforts to remove the military from power.
In this evolving landscape, resistance forces have demonstrated remarkable resilience, securing substantial provincial gains, achieving numerous successes, and enticing additional ethnic armed groups (EAOs) to join the alliance. This has amplified pressure on the Junta. Notably, the recent seizure of the pivotal trading hub of Myawaddy on 11 April, followed by its recapture by Junta forces by the end of April, underscores the conflict's dynamic nature.
Myawaddy, nestled in the Kayin/Karen State of Myanmar, bordering Mae Sot in Thailand, holds immense symbolic and strategic significance. Despite its modest size, it facilitates cross-border trade exceeding US$ 1 billion annually. Control over Myawaddy provides the Junta with a substantial portion of trade with Thailand.
Beyond its commercial importance, Myawaddy serves as a focal point for various ethnic and pro-democracy movements opposing military rule in Myanmar. Its strategic location has made it a rallying point for those advocating for change and autonomy within the country.
Beyond its commercial importance, Myawaddy serves as a focal point for various ethnic and pro-democracy movements opposing military rule in Myanmar. Its strategic location has made it a rallying point for those advocating for change and autonomy within the country.
The Karen, constituting approximately 7 percent of Myanmar's 58 million population, ranks as the country's third-largest ethnic group. Like other minority communities residing in border regions, the Karen have persistently advocated for increased autonomy from Myanmar's central government. They have faced marginalisation and human rights abuses inflicted by the Junta forces, leading to major displacements to the Thai side of the border. A significant portion of the approximately 90,000 refugees from Myanmar residing in nine established refugee camps in Thailand consists of Karen individuals who fled previous bouts of conflict.
The Karen National Union (KNU) and its armed faction, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), have been engaged in a 74-year-long struggle against the military regime on behalf of the ethnic Karen community. They were among the initial rebel factions to resist the 2021 coup. Shortly after the military seized power, the KNU nullified a previous ceasefire agreement and recommenced assaults on military outposts throughout southeast Myanmar. KNU leadership claims to have provided arms and training to numerous insurgents from diverse ethnic backgrounds. Since the coup, the KNLA has expanded its ranks to over 10,000 soldiers.
These groups have targeted Myawaddy town since the start of April, culminating in the KNLA's seizure of the final military outpost on 11 April. A drone-assisted attack by the KNLA on 19 April and intensified assaults on 20 April aimed to secure complete control of Myawaddy then ensued. Simultaneously, the Junta conducted airstrikes as part of Operation Aung Zeya to regain control and ensure stability.
The Junta announced Myawaddy's recapture on 24 April with Karen National Army (KNA) assistance, raising questions about the KNA's allegiance. Border Guard Force units in Kayin/Karen state recently severed ties with the military and renamed themselves the KNA, seemingly joining the ethnic armed groups in the current battle.
The KNA, originating from a KNLA faction in 2010 and formerly known as the Border Guard Force under Saw Chit Thu's leadership, faces British sanctions due to its involvement in human trafficking. Saw Chit Thu's extensive business interests in Myawaddy, which include gambling and fraudulent activities, further complicate the situation. Notably, Shwe Kokko, designated as a 'Special Economic Zone' along the Thai-Myanmar border, has transformed into a hub for gambling and scams, with the KNA reportedly earning US$ 190 million annually from these activities.
Chit Thu's connections to Myanmar's military rulers are underscored by his receipt of an honorary title from the Junta general in November 2022. These accolades and economic interests intertwine, potentially influencing the KNA's alignment amidst the ongoing political turmoil. The sensitive condition of the border region fuels concerns over lingering conflict, casting uncertainty on regional stability.
Chit Thu's connections to Myanmar's military rulers are underscored by his receipt of an honorary title from the Junta general in November 2022. These accolades and economic interests intertwine, potentially influencing the KNA's alignment amidst the ongoing political turmoil.
The ongoing conflict has caused the displacement of citizens to neighbouring countries, prompting thousands of individuals from Myanmar's Kayin/Karen State to seek refuge in Thailand amid escalating clashes between Myanmar Junta forces and ethnic Karen troops. Thailand received around 3,000 individuals from Myanmar on 20 April. While the numbers have decreased somewhat as the conflict has eased, they will likely rise again in future. Furthermore, Myanmar's conscription law has led to thousands of youths seeking entry into the neighbouring nation.
In March, a humanitarian corridor with Myanmar to provide aid to those affected by the civil war was operationalised by the Thai government in March. The aid, worth about US$ 138,000, mainly consisted of food, instant beverages, and toiletries and was distributed in three towns within Kayin/Karen state. According to UN agencies, more than 2.8 million people in Myanmar are displaced, with most fleeing the fighting that ensued after the army’s takeover. Thai officials emphasise that the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management will oversee the distribution process to ensure equitable and impartial delivery to all individuals as one of the parts of the ASEAN peace plan. However, there are apprehensions from several sectors that the military regime might manipulate this procedure to allocate services exclusively to territories under their authority.
To stay informed about developments, Thai Prime Minister Srettha has formed a committee and a subcommittee, which he leads. They comprise representatives from the National Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and various security agencies. They visited Mae Sot on 22 April to assess the situation. The Prime Minister has also expressed concern regarding the spillover of fighting into Thai airspace.
In early April, Thailand announced its readiness to welcome 100,000 individuals seeking refuge from Myanmar, with plans to accommodate more refugees if displacement continues. Camps have been set up in border regions of Thailand to provide shelter to those fleeing. However, details regarding their stay duration and eligibility for ‘protected person’ status under the National Screening Mechanism remain uncertain.
Thailand's response to the refugee influx should reflect an understanding of both immediate challenges and long-term ramifications. If the situation remains unstable in the coming years, there will be a pressing need to prioritise social integration, economic opportunities, and healthcare access for refugees. Furthermore, collaboration with neighbouring countries and international organisations to address cross-border security threats and to maintain regional stability will be indispensable.
Thailand has proposed to Laos, in its capacity as the chair of ASEAN, the possibility of hosting a meeting aimed at resolving the Myanmar crisis. The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus provides a framework for fostering peaceful dialogue and cooperation in addressing the situation. However, practical solutions require the involvement of all stakeholders, including the military regime and other key actors, a factor that has been lacking thus far. The role of Laos, as the current chair, in steering a different course remains to be determined.
A fundamental division exists within the ASEAN bloc regarding appropriate responses to the Myanmar situation. While some advocate for holding the Junta entirely accountable and excluding the nation from ASEAN until it adheres to the peace plan, others, such as Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, want the “Junta to be presentable” while allowing Myanmar to maintain its membership.
A fundamental division exists within the ASEAN bloc regarding appropriate responses to the Myanmar situation. While some advocate for holding the Junta entirely accountable and excluding the nation from ASEAN until it adheres to the peace plan, others, such as Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, want the "Junta to be presentable" while allowing Myanmar to maintain its membership.
Thailand acknowledges the multifaceted nature of the crisis and is committed to upholding humanitarian principles and providing assistance. By recognising the need for sustained domestic and international efforts, Thailand is taking proactive measures to address the refugee crisis and mitigate its impact on the country and the region. However, the effectiveness of these efforts still needs to be seen.
Sreeparna Banerjee is a Junior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Sreeparna Banerjee is a Junior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation Kolkata with the Strategic Studies Programme.
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