Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on Aug 25, 2021 Updated 3 Days ago
Why China remains top on minds of India’s youth In a democracy, the youth have a quantifiable impression on the formulation of foreign policy. While problems related to livelihood do outweigh security concerns, proliferation of social media has meant that Gen Next is vocal in expressing their opinion related to the nation’s foreign policy. Thus, young people are becoming a pressure bloc that governments are taking very seriously. As seen in the early 20th century, the world is once again witnessing new powers competing to take centre stage resulting in a challenge to the old order. While competition is certainly the hallmark of international politics, two geopolitical poles—China and the United States (US)—are emerging. Even as Asia was coming to terms with a resurgent China, the culmination of the Taliban’s “Long March” from rural Afghanistan to the high seat in Kabul has caused consternation.
Even as Asia was coming to terms with a resurgent China, the culmination of the Taliban’s “Long March” from rural Afghanistan to the high seat in Kabul has caused consternation.
ORF’s 2021 “Foreign Policy Survey” tried to map the minds of the young and argumentative India. While improving the economy, combatting terrorism remain topmost on their mind, they want India to resolve differences with China. In pursuit of this, the Narendra Modi government pursued a policy of engaging with it as evidenced from Modi meeting the Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Wuhan and Mamallapuram summits. At each of these conferences, the discussions focused on issues like strengthening peace along the border and tackling terrorism, amongst others. But while paying lip service to combatting terror, China has repeatedly tried to thwart moves to punish Masood Azhar, who heads Jaish-e-Mohammed that is responsible for killing 40 security personnel in a suicide bombing in Kashmir. Many in India view China’s manoeuvres to diplomatically insulate Islamabad from accountability for its terror activities, at the same time noting efforts made by US and its allies at bringing Azhar to justice. Despite engaging with India, China’s creeping expansionism resulting in the 2017 Doklam standoff, and recurrent incursions at various points at Eastern Ladakh that culminated in a carnage in Galwan in June 2020, which led to fatalities on both sides, has created a sentiment that makes many wary of its intentions. This has resonated in the survey in which an overwhelming 77 percent of the respondents expressed “distrust” of the authoritarian nation. Could a more definitive shift in India’s foreign policy towards Beijing be in the offing?
Many in India view China’s manoeuvres to diplomatically insulate Islamabad from accountability for its terror activities, at the same time noting efforts made by US and its allies at bringing Azhar to justice.
While ‘non-alignment’ has been an article of faith for India’s foreign policy establishment, South Block mandarins have reviewed this sine qua non. The current government’s new foreign policy orientation has moved closer to the US and its allies in Asia like Japan and Australia in the Quadrilateral (Quad) framework. The survey found that more than 60 percent of the respondents prefer to forsake non-alignment due to a resurgent China. In fact, Modi’s approach to China has an approval rating of nearly 80 percent amongst those surveyed. The same percentage of respondents view the US as India’s leading ally in the decade ahead. Further, Chinese seizure of territory in Ladakh came against the backdrop of the Modi-Xi summits in Wuhan and thereafter in Mamallapuram, revealing the planning and deception behind Beijing’s stealth aggression in Ladakh. The IFP survey poll results on China should be seen in the context of this duplicitous conduct by Beijing. While there may be a sliver of a thaw on the Himalayan heights on account of the partial disengagement along the Sino-Indian border, friction points like Depsang where Chinese troops have been blocking Indian patrols cast a cloud over the relationship. Since more than 80 percent of the respondents have taken a view that the challenge over the border issue with China is more acute than with Pakistan, there remains little hope that there may be a change in the mood of the Indian youth.
Chinese seizure of territory in Ladakh came against the backdrop of the Modi-Xi summits in Wuhan and thereafter in Mamallapuram, revealing the planning and deception behind Beijing’s stealth aggression in Ladakh.
Consequently, there is every possibility of a stronger convergence between the United States and India. The US–India relationship is likely to deepen as Sino-Pakistan relations deepen in the wake of Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban. These strategic dynamics that are at work will evolve and in flux. However, they very critically confirm or at least reinforce the data of Indian youth attitudes towards China captured in the foreign policy poll. Beyond the increasing strategic convergence between India and the US, there is every possibility of the Quadrilateral arrangement or Quad, which is grouping whose membership consists of the US, India, Japan, and Australia gaining an impetus. The persistence of a revisionist territorial agenda by China against India, a growing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and Beijing’s strategic nexus with Pakistan will remain sore and adversarial issues in Sino-Indian relations significantly congealing Indian hostility against Beijing. In a nutshell, the Foreign Policy Survey captures youth attitudes and views on international relations and could be a bellwether for change.
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Authors

Kartik Bommakanti

Kartik Bommakanti

Kartik Bommakanti is a Senior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme. Kartik specialises in space military issues and his research is primarily centred on the ...

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Kalpit A Mankikar

Kalpit A Mankikar

Kalpit A Mankikar is a Fellow with Strategic Studies programme and is based out of ORFs Delhi centre. His research focusses on China specifically looking ...

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