Want innovation in space? Support arms control

Arms control and innovation seem like odd bedfellows. But maybe not as much as you’d think. Instead of seeing emerging technology as a challenge to arms control, and arms control as a means of inhibiting innovation, we need to consider the ways in which arms control can and does support technical innovation, as well as the ways in which new tech can enable and facilitate arms control agreements.

In 1985, Thomas Schelling described arms control as a form of military cooperation to reduce the risk of war, its scope, or the costs of being prepared. Although some measures involve legal agreements that classify and count weapons capabilities and inhibit their development, arms control can focus on behaviours, through the development of principles, norms, and rules that govern how we operate and interact with others to promote safety and confidence. Rules do not necessarily restrict innovation, but can instead indicate how technology should be used. The Hague Code of Conduct is one such tool that applies to outer space, with rules that call for pre-notification prior to the launch of ballistic missiles as well as space launch vehicles.

Many arms control agreements include rules that cover both civilian and military uses of technology. Rules around nuclear power are a good example. They help to distinguish and differentiate benign from harmful applications, boosting public confidence while also increasing public safety. For these reasons, some states support measures for the responsible use of Arifitical Intelligence.

While some analysts argue that arms control measures are too easily outstripped by innovation, arms control agreements can be more flexible than this criticism suggests. For example, the Chemical Weapons Convention keeps ahead of change by regulating use, not substance, and by enforcing certain prohibitions.

The Hague Code of Conduct is one such tool that applies to outer space, with rules that call for pre-notification prior to the launch of ballistic missiles as well as space launch vehicles.

Finally, we must remember that arms control is not just about rules but about instilling confidence that the rules are being followed. Such confidence is achieved through transparency, communication, and data sharing. Here, technical innovation can work to benefit arms control. For example, advances in commercial space situational awareness capabilities are facilitating the ability to monitor objects and activities in space.

Outer space is burgeoning with new actors and new activities. One way to see this growth is in the number of new launch vehicles and active satellites, which have more than doubled in just a few years. But the qualitative change in our space activities is the most striking. Innovations in technology are suggesting new possibilities for what we do in space. There are, for example, new projects focused on removing or mitigating orbital debris; they can feature harpoons or nets, tethers or solar sails, lasers or magnets. Advanced sensor and robotics capabilities are enabling new on-orbit services such as repair and refueling. Such critical capabilities can make space safer and more sustainable for everyone.

But only if the right rules are put in place. At present, there are huge gaps in international law when it comes to the deployment of weapons or use of force in outer space. Such gaps are permitting an accelerating arms race.

The ability to put new technology to work in practical ways—and especially in commercial ways—depends on the stable operating environment that such rules provide. Investors, operators, and customers all benefit from established boundaries and predictability. Rules are also important for safety, particularly as space becomes more crowded and objects move with extreme speed, making mishaps or impacts catastrophic. There are no fender benders in space. In response to this reality, some space industries are developing their own codes of conduct.

Clear rules are also important to ensure security in space, but they are not easy to create. Most, if not all, technology in space is dual-use, with a variety of purposes that meet the needs of diverse actors, including militaries. It’s no secret that many innovative technologies grow out of advancing counterspace programs. There are even suggestions to use civilian or commercial technologies, such as active debris removal, for active defense in space. The multiple functions that space hardware can support present real challenges for regulators.

Rules are also important for safety, particularly as space becomes more crowded and objects move with extreme speed, making mishaps or impacts catastrophic.

An incident in July 2020 is illustrative. Following observations of what appeared to be the release of a ‘projectile’ from a small Russian subsatellite in orbit, the United States and United Kingdom decried the action as a weapons test. Russia insisted that it was part of a satellite servicing experiment. The event itself was shrouded in secrecy. It was definitely unsafe. Yet, Russia has stated that its actions in this event “did not breach any norms or principles of international law.” Mostly because those norms and principles are so poorly developed.

We need to remember that many of the processes that support arms control, including transparency and communications measures, also enhance safety and benefit all. And arms control is more than just an agreement. It’s a process, an ongoing commitment to keep space safe and secure for all. In fulfilling this commitment, innovation can play a key role while also flourishing.

• Space
• India
• Emerging technology
• Outer Space Treaty

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