Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on Aug 31, 2021 Updated 26 Days ago
Iran’s new President has the United States struggling to see him as a real partner
Ebrahim Raisi has delayed revival of nuclear deal

Iran’s ultraconservative Shi’ite cleric Ebrahim Raisi struck a conciliatory note with the United States soon after he was endorsed to be the President in an official ceremony by the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"We will seek to lift the tyrannical sanctions imposed by America,” Raisi said in a televised speech. Some in the US saw it as an indication that he might make more room for the US’ demands in order to rejoin the nuclear deal. But he also assuaged the fears of the Iranian hardliners as he said he will not tie Iran’s economy to the “will of foreigners”.  The conflicting messages have made it hard for the US to determine which way Raisi might lead the talks.

Earlier this year the Biden administration started talks to revive the landmark deal first signed under Obama in 2015 and intended to deter Iran from making a nuclear bomb. In 2018, it was abandoned by Donald Trump who pursued a campaign of maximum pressure against Iran to discourage it from supporting its many militias in the region that threaten both Israel and America’s Arab allies.

Raisi is seen as Khamenei’s man; he was showered by compliments from the Supreme Leader and described as “Indefatigable, experienced, and popular” even though he won an election, which saw the lowest turnout in Iran’s electoral history and one without real competition since anyone who could have defeated him was disqualified.

The talks were organised in Vienna along with five co-signatories to the deal and were reportedly going well until Raisi won the elections mid-June. He replaced moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Raisi is seen as Khamenei’s man; he was showered by compliments from the Supreme Leader and described as “Indefatigable, experienced, and popular” even though he won an election, which saw the lowest turnout in Iran’s electoral history and one without real competition since anyone who could have defeated him was disqualified.

Moreover, Ayatollah Raisi’s career is stained by allegations of severe human rights abuses and he himself is subjected to American sanctions. Activists have called for an investigation against the 60-year-old judge who sat on the death committee in the ’80s that sent thousands of Iranian dissidents to the gallows.

Raisi is under immense domestic pressure as Iran’s tattered economy continues to deteriorate under the weight of American sanctions. Whatever Raisi says, he is nonetheless accused of adopting an aggressive posture in the region.

“That Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran,” said Amnesty International. “In 2018, our organisation documented how Ebrahim Raisi had been a member of the ‘death commission’ which forcibly disappeared and extra judicially executed in secret thousands of political dissidents in Evin and Gohardasht prisons near Tehran in 1988. The circumstances surrounding the fate of the victims and the whereabouts of their bodies are, to this day, systematically concealed by the Iranian authorities, amounting to ongoing crimes against humanity.”

Raisi is under immense domestic pressure as Iran’s tattered economy continues to deteriorate under the weight of American sanctions. Whatever Raisi says, he is nonetheless accused of adopting an aggressive posture in the region.

Early this month, Iran was accused of carrying out an attack against an oil tanker owned by a British company off the coast of Oman. It was the deadliest attack in a series of covert naval attacks against Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati ships since 2019. Two seamen, one of them British, were on board the MV Mercer Street merchant vessel and were killed in the attack. The fallout escalated as the United Kingdom summoned Iran’s ambassador and the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the incident as “outrageous.” The United States and Israel also held Iran responsible.

In a cabinet meeting on Sunday, the Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that Israel, not England, was the real target of the attack since the ship was linked to an Israeli.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told reporters in Washington DC that America was confident Iran was responsible. “It follows a pattern of similar attacks by Iran including past incidents with explosive drones,” Blinken said. “There is no justification for this attack on a peaceful vessel on a commercial mission in international waters. Iran’s action is a direct threat to freedom of navigation and commerce.”

In a cabinet meeting on Sunday, the Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that Israel, not England, was the real target of the attack since the ship was linked to an Israeli. “We know how to send a message to Iran in our own way,” PM Bennett was reported to have posted on his Twitter account.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh denied all responsibility and in turn accused Israel of slander. “Whoever sows wind will reap a storm,” Khatibzadeh threatened Israel.

Israel has since hit Iranian targets inside Syria. Raisi’s arrogance, however, might inflict a bigger cost on Iranians. The US is struggling to see Raisi as an earnest partner. A sixth round of indirect talks between Iran and the US were adjourned on June 20 and have not yet been resumed. There is no word on when the dialogue might restart.

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Contributor

Anchal Vohra

Anchal Vohra

Anchal Vohra was a Fellow at ORF. She writes on contemporary developments in West Asia and on foreign policy.

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