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Just as the rise of cities is a complex phenomenon, comprising a multitude of external dynamics and internal factors, their decline, too, contains a combination of external and internal factors. Global climate change, natural disasters, war, shifting power equations, technology, and innovation are forces that can impact cities severely. Unfortunately, individual cities cannot be expected to counter these factors entirely on their own.
However, even in the absence of such factors, local decision-making and man-made disasters could play a decisive role in the fate of cities. For example, Kolkata was once India’s foremost centre of economy, commerce, culture, academics, theatre, and the arts. But post-Independence, amongst other factors, decisions inimical to industry and trade that were taken locally led to the city’s economic decline. Businesses relocated out of the city and professionals migrated to other parts of the country or abroad. Within decades, Kolkata was eclipsed by Mumbai, which became the beacon of the national economy, wealth, and glamour. However, Mumbai’s advantages appear to be suffering an erosion on account of its prohibitive land prices, the lack of affordable housing, overwhelming population density and declining quality of life.
Businesses relocated out of the city and professionals migrated to other parts of the country or abroad. Within decades, Kolkata was eclipsed by Mumbai, which became the beacon of the national economy, wealth, and glamour.
The last two decades saw Bengaluru and Pune stand out as centres of attraction, offering a better quality of life unmatched by other Indian cities. These qualities included better weather, great employment opportunities, an acceptable standard of infrastructure, a green environment, and functioning law and order. In 2018, in a nationwide survey carried out by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Pune was declared the most liveable city in India. Two years later, the city slipped to the second position in the Ease of Living Index survey carried out by the Ministry.
In 2024, Bengaluru topped the list, obtaining the highest score of 66.70 on the Ease of Living Index. The city was acclaimed as the ‘Silicon Valley of India’, drawing the brightest to take up jobs in the Information Technology (IT) sector. Its cultural and recreational strengths as well as its affordable rents made it the most sought-after destination for those who aspired to a better quality of life. Pune had similar strengths and competed with Bengaluru in cosmopolitan culture, safe environments, reasonable costs, and a strong job profile. Sadly, these strengths of the two cities seem to be dissipating at some speed.
To take the case of Bengaluru, the city had a population less than 1 million (790,308) in 1951. By 2021, its population had swelled massively to 12.76 million and is currently estimated at 14 million. Along with its population, both its human density and built density have grown per square kilometre. These local factors have had their share, along with climate change, to make Bengaluru a much hotter city. In 2024, the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) reported that temperatures in the city had crossed 40 degrees Celsius, reaching 41.8 degrees Celsius on 30 April 2024. The KSNDMC further informed that it was not just the day temperature that had shown an upward trend; the city’s minimum temperature was also on the rise, adding to the discomfort of the citizens, especially at night. Along with heat in the summer, Bengaluru has been repeatedly visited by floods, disrupting city life, destroying infrastructure, causing huge economic losses and claiming human lives.
The KSNDMC further informed that it was not just the day temperature that had shown an upward trend; the city’s minimum temperature was also on the rise, adding to the discomfort of the citizens, especially at night.
The city is now additionally beset with serious drinking water problems. Last summer, the Karnataka Chief Minister was on record stating that Bengaluru was short of 500 million litres of water every day, one-fifth of the city’s total water demand. A part of the citizenry is forced to have its demand met by purchasing water from tankers. As the city population rises, greater water demand is leading to larger quantities of groundwater extraction. As a consequence, groundwater levels are dropping and wells are drying up.
To add to the woes of India’s Silicon Valley, Bengaluru has a huge traffic congestion problem. Tom Tom, a multinational developer of location technology, in its global Traffic Congestion Index 2023, ranked Bengaluru the most congested city in India and the sixth-most congested in the world. It took 28 minutes and 30 seconds on city roads to cover a distance of 10 kms with an average speed of 18 km per hour. This was one minute longer than in 2022, indicating the worsening of the traffic situation.
The city has also witnessed an increase in crime. Between 2021 and 2023, crime incidents rose from 7,566 to 12,627. Murders increased from 145 to 205, robberies from 364 to 673, and thefts from 1,167 to 2,493. What was worrisome was that crime detection dropped from 47 percent in 2021 to 28.5 percent in 2023. Crimes against women and children also registered an increase. Cybercrime made a remarkable three-fold jump, from 6,422 in 2021 to 17,623 cases in 2023. The city police were under much greater pressure to tackle rising multi-dimensional delinquency.
Pune’s situation was no better. It has witnessed a demographic explosion, similar to Bengaluru. A city with 0.58 million people in 1950 has added huge human numbers and is now estimated at 7.3 million. Like Bengaluru, its temperate climate is increasingly becoming a thing of the past. This summer, the Indian Meteorological Department issued advisories for the people to reschedule their outdoor activities and keep hydrated following the temperatures soaring to 43.3 degrees Celsius. In 2024, the maximum temperature crossed the 40 degrees Celsius mark on more occasions than in the past. Clearly, population growth, greater human and built density and deforestation had combined with climate change to radically alter the temperature profile of the city. Additionally, in Tom Tom’s Traffic Congestion Index 2023, Pune was placed right after Bengaluru as the seventh-most congested city in the world. It took an average of 27 minutes 50 seconds to negotiate a distance of 10 kms with an average speed of 19 km per hour during peak traffic period.
The handling of the Porche car road crash that killed two young professionals, the murder of a senior citizen out on a morning walk and the slaying of a former corporator by bike-borne assailants have left the city shaken.
While Pune’s overall crime figures show no significant changes over a decade per the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) annual survey, some recent incidents have raised a sense of alarm and insecurity among citizens. The handling of the Porche car road crash that killed two young professionals, the murder of a senior citizen out on a morning walk and the slaying of a former corporator by bike-borne assailants have left the city shaken.
Pune also had terrible floods this year when parts of the city went under water, severely disrupting normal life and raising concerns about the city’s capacity to handle such disasters. Its road system, riddled with potholes, too, is unable to cope with increasing traffic. The overall deficit in road space and the lack of dedicated service roads overcrowd the main arteries of the city. Citizens, required to commute daily, have been openly voicing their annoyance at city road infrastructure.
Overall, the two city governments, handicapped by a fractured governance architecture, stymied by financial feebleness and hammered by the consequences of climate change, seem to be unable to respond to the colossal challenges. Unless the situation is taken seriously and radical steps are initiated by the higher levels of government, Bengaluru and Pune’s rankings in the Ease of Living Index may carry no meaning for the unfortunate citizens.
Ramanath Jha is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
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Dr. Ramanath Jha is Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. He works on urbanisation — urban sustainability, urban governance and urban planning. Dr. Jha belongs ...
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