Hungary’s election shows how governance failures—not ideology alone—can unseat entrenched populist incumbents, with implications for Europe and the American right
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On 12 April 2026, Hungarians voted in a new government, ousting far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party after 16 years of rule.
Peter Magyar and his Tisza party secured 138 seats in the 199-member parliament, comfortably crossing the two-thirds parliamentary majority, leaving Fidesz, which had won four consecutive elections since 2010, reduced to a mere 55 seats. Voter turnout exceeded 77 percent—a record, the highest in a Hungarian election since the fall of communism in 1989—underscoring the depth of public demand for change amid the realities of daily life under Orban’s rule.
Economic growth in 2025 stood at 0.4 percent, far behind neighbours Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, while unemployment reached its highest level in a decade. Transparency International ranked Hungary the most corrupt country in the European Union (EU). Meanwhile, the billions of euros in EU cohesion and development funds frozen by Brussels since 2022 over rule-of-law concerns exacerbated fiscal pressures, leaving a significant gap in public finances.
Orban’s campaign relied on geopolitical abstractions that portrayed Ukraine and the EU as threats to Hungary’s security and economy, while paying limited attention to domestic economic conditions.
Magyar, a conservative former Fidesz loyalist who split from the party in 2024 following a scandal that forced President Katalin Novak, as well as Magyar’s ex-wife and former justice minister Judit Varga, to resign, centred his campaign on Orban having turned Hungary into a kleptocracy that enriched a small circle of loyalists while ordinary citizens struggled. By contrast, Orban’s campaign relied on geopolitical abstractions that portrayed Ukraine and the EU as threats to Hungary’s security and economy, while paying limited attention to domestic economic conditions.
Across the EU, relief was evident. Under Orban, Hungary acted as the EU’s chronic disruptor, blocking sanction packages against Russia, vetoing a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, and even sharing sensitive information with the Kremlin.
Magyar, on the other hand, has pledged to rebuild Hungary's relationship with the EU and NATO, marking a fundamental reorientation of the country’s strategic posture following years of clashes between Brussels and Budapest. He is likely to stop obstructing the 20th EU sanctions package against Russia, which includes measures targeting maritime services for Russian oil exports and has already called on Orban to lift the veto on the €90 billion loan to Ukraine that has been frozen. Brussels, in turn, is negotiating the unlocking of the billions of euros that it had so far frozen.
However, the picture is nuanced. Magyar has indicated that he will not provide direct military or financial assistance to Ukraine, while opposing fast-tracking Kyiv’s accession to the EU. Hungary’s dependence on Russian oil rose to 93 percent of imports last year from 61 percent in 2021, rendering it difficult for the new government to reverse this trend. The ethnic Hungarian minority, numbering around 150,000 in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region, will remain a sensitive issue. Yet a Hungary that participates constructively in European security discussions rather than sabotaging them and serving as a Trojan horse for the Kremlin’s interests will represent a significant shift in the bloc’s ability to act cohesively.
For far-right populists globally, Orban’s fall has seismic consequences. As one commentator put it, under Orban, Budapest had become a “Disneyland” for the MAGA brigade, granting fellowships to disenchanted conservatives. Orban’s playbook for building an “illiberal state” was studied and admired from Washington to Warsaw, with Steve Bannon, Trump’s former aide, referring to Orban as “Trump before Trump”. MAGA’s most powerful leaders—US President Donald Trump phoning into a Fidesz stadium rally to declare his support, and Vice-President JD Vance flying to Budapest days before the vote to campaign for him and criticise the alleged interference of “Brussels bureaucrats”—were heavily invested in Orban’s success. With Orban’s defeat, alarm bells are likely to be most pronounced in the US, especially with midterm elections approaching and Trump’s poll ratings under pressure following his war in Iran.
The election outcome underscores the importance of governance, highlighting the gap between nationalist rhetoric and culture wars and the reality of Hungary’s stagnant economy and everyday frustrations.
Some argue that Magyar himself is a conservative, with his views on immigration, sovereignty, and progressive social causes, and that his victory does not represent a repudiation of right-wing ideology. However, unlike Fidesz, on the far-right of the spectrum, Tisza aligns more closely with the centre-right. The election outcome underscores the importance of governance, highlighting the gap between nationalist rhetoric and culture wars and the reality of Hungary’s stagnant economy and everyday frustrations.
Magyar owes his win to voters whose primary desire was to remove Orban. The pressures of governance, including delivering improvements in public services and living standards, will test his government’s resolve and ability to translate its strong mandate into lasting institutional reform. The challenges will be formidable given Fidesz’s entrenchment in institutional structures, local patronage networks and the media landscape.
The Hungarian election serves as a stark and hopeful reminder that even after years of systematically dismantling institutions, capturing the media, using state funds for propaganda, and enjoying the active support of both the Kremlin and the White House, the democratic system can yield uncontested change. It demonstrates that autocracy can be reversed through the ballot box, even when the playing field is almost completely tilted to one side.
Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director - Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on ...
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