Jordan's position in the Middle East, particularly its cultural and historical ties to Palestine, places it in a precarious situation amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza
While Jordan is seen as a relatively stable country in the Middle East which also enjoys a reasonable standing among Western nations, the fact that it shares a border with the West Bank and Israel might mean that the ongoing Israel-Hamas War could spill over to its borders. Its relations with Israel have been on shaky terrain as a consequence of the broad condemnation of Israel’s action in the Occupied Palestinian Territories by King Abdullah and his government officials. In concurrence, Amman has become an arena for struggle between Israel (and its allies) and non-state actors from the ‘Axis of Resistance’ amid the ongoing Israel-Iran shadow war. Jordan and Palestine are forever connected on cultural and political fronts and therefore any political upheaval in Gaza would inevitably have serious implications for Jordan. Set against this backdrop, this article unpacks Jordan's positions, opportunities, and challenges emitting from the ongoing war in Gaza.
The modern state of Jordan is inextricably linked to Palestine as the two territories emerged to be viewed as separate only after 1921 when the region was partitioned by the British mandate establishing the Emirate of Transjordan as a British protectorate. Throughout the mandate period, Abdullah I of the Hashemite dynasty ruled Transjordan, formally becoming the king after gaining independence from the British in 1946. During the Arab-Israeli War in 1948, Jordan fought against Israel alongside other Arab states and captured the West Bank. During Jordan’s annexation of the West Bank, all Palestinians in the West Bank immediately gained Jordanian citizenship and received political representation in the parliament. At present, about 50 to 60 percent of Jordan's population is of Palestinian descent, and therefore, the ongoing war in Gaza is an important and emotional issue for many Jordanians, who still have family ties to people in both the West Bank and Gaza.
The modern state of Jordan is inextricably linked to Palestine as the two territories emerged to be viewed as separate only after 1921 when the region was partitioned by the British mandate establishing the Emirate of Transjordan as a British protectorate.
Further, despite losing control of the West Bank—including East Jerusalem—during the Six-Day War, Jordan continued to uphold the custodianship over Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem, a role the Hashemite family has held since 1924. In 1983, on Jordan’s proposal, the Old City of Jerusalem and its Walls were inscribed on the list of World Heritage in Danger, citing deliberate destruction of religious property as a threat to the old city. Subsequently, UNESCO launched its ambitious heritage preservation programme in the old city, with an interim funding of US$100,000 from Jordan. Particularly within the context of Al-Aqsa Mosque, Jordan has spent US$ 2.1 billion over the course of five major heritage restoration cycles. Jordan has asserted its role as a guardian of peace, religious coexistence, and respect for religious sites in Jerusalem. At present, as enshrined in the 1994 Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty, Jordan is the official and internationally-recognised custodian of Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem.
The Palestine connection of Jordan has ostensibly resulted in massive public protests across the Kingdom which have gone far beyond to clash with security forces, threatening to attack the Israeli Embassy in Jordan. Jordanian authorities were not pleased with the protests; evident from a thousand arrests made in Amman during pro-Palestinian demonstrations between October and November 2023. However, with the public opinion against Israel growing to scale comparable to those witnessed during the Arab Spring, the Jordanian government understands the necessity to align itself with public opinion by intensifying its criticism of Israel. This is reflected in public condemnations of Israel’s action in Gaza by Abdullah II, reiterating that the two-state solution is the only way forward for peace between Israel and Palestine. Further, Jordan’s withdrawal of its ambassador from Tel Aviv and its announcement to scrap a water-for-energy deal with Israel over the war in Gaza is reflective of its stance against Israel.
Despite its wider criticism of Israel, Jordan has been striking a balance with its neighbour with which it signed a peace treaty in 1994. This is evident from its participation in the international efforts—led by the US—to “thwart Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel” on 13 April. Jordan played a key role in intercepting multiple missiles and drones that passed through its territory to Israel during Iran’s assault. Albeit King Abdullah II has stressed that his aim was to safeguard their own sovereignty rather than defend Israel”, Jordan’s participation sent a wider message of its political allegiance with Israel—and the US. Jordan’s positioning during the attacks also stems from its pursuit to maintain cordial ties with the US, its biggest aid provider. Jordan has been a close US ally and as per official reports, the US has announced US$1.45 billion aid for Jordan in April this year. Jordan’s action during the attack is also underpinned by the suspicion that Iran is recruiting Jordanian youth (from the Muslim Brotherhood) to its allied groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Despite its wider criticism of Israel, Jordan has been striking a balance with its neighbour with which it signed a peace treaty in 1994.
The ongoing shadow war between Iran and Israel poses a significant risk of dragging the Kingdom into a widening regional confrontation. For instance, in May, Jordan found itself caught in an arms plot, allegedly negotiated by the Muslim Brotherhood, which is said to have links with Hamas; later foiled. The attempt was perceived as an act to destabilise Jordan—a country which has the potential to be a regional flashpoint in the Gaza crisis on account of it hosting a US military base and sharing borders with Israel as well as Syria and Iraq, both home to Iranian-backed militias. The country has ostensibly become “an arena for regional tensions between Israel and its allies, and armed groups from the ‘axis of resistance’, which most recently resulted in the deaths of US army personnel on Jordanian soil.” Both Jordan and Israel face security threats from Iran—and its regional ambitions—as well as from radical Islamist elements and therefore, peace with Israel remains a strategic choice for Jordan.
On domestic fronts, Jordan fears that the war in Gaza will increase Hamas’s popularity among its subjects, emboldening the group’s supporters at a time when it is preparing for an upcoming parliamentary election in September. Another major challenge is posed by the potential Palestinian refugee crisis that might erupt at its doorsteps. Despite a long history of integrating Palestinian refugees, Jordanian leadership has been adamant about accepting new waves of refugees as a result of the ongoing war in Gaza and adopted a strict policy against any possible displacement to its territory. One of the factors underpinning Jordan’s reluctance is the growing grievances over its socio-economic and political problems, further marred by a struggling economy, high public debt and high youth unemployment. For instance, the Hashemite Kingdom has witnessed a significant decline in tourism, a main pillar of its economy, and foreign direct investment since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. In concurrence, unemployment across the kingdom has grown to approximately 22 percent.
On domestic fronts, Jordan fears that the war in Gaza will increase Hamas’s popularity among its subjects, emboldening the group’s supporters at a time when it is preparing for an upcoming parliamentary election in September.
The refugee influx has long exacerbated endemic political, economic, and resource challenges for Jordan. It was foreseen when after the outbreak of the Hamas–Israel war on 7 October, Amman warned Tel Aviv that any Palestinian displacement from Gaza or the West Bank would amount to a ‘Declaration of War’ on the Hashemite Kingdom. Jordan’s geographical location, sharing a long border with the West Bank, has ostensibly fueled Jordan’s susceptibility to the second-order effects of the ongoing war in Gaza, including exacerbated economic, financial, and refugee crises. The Israel-Hamas War threatens Jordan’s interests in ways not seen since the country lost control of the West Bank in 1967. Since the outbreak of the war, it had “an immediate impact on Jordanian streets and the country’s national security.” Indeed, Jordan is historically linked to Palestine and that any political turmoil in the region would have serious implications for the Hashemite Kingdom.
Jordan's position in the Middle East, particularly its cultural and historical ties to Palestine, places it in a precarious situation amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The Kingdom's complex relationship with Israel, shaped by both a peace treaty and rising public dissent, highlights the challenges it faces in balancing internal pressures at home and external alliances with Israel and its Western allies. The potential risk of a refugee crisis and economic strain from the war exacerbate Jordan's domestic issues, including unemployment and economic instability. Additionally, Jordan faces the risk of being drawn into a broader regional conflict involving Iran and its allies, which could destabilise the Hashemite Kingdom. The ongoing conflict and shifting political dynamics could further influence the upcoming election in Jordan with public opinion sympathising with Hamas. The impact of war on Jordan is multifaceted, influencing its domestic politics, security dynamics, and international standing. Navigating these complexities would require Jordan to strategically balance its national interests, public sentiment, and its international alliances.
Sabine Ameer is a doctoral researcher in Politics and International Relations at the University of Glasgow, United Kingdom.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Sabine Ameer is a doctoral researcher in Politics and International Relations at the University of Glasgow, United Kingdom. Her research analyses whether there has been ...
Read More +
PREV