In recent years, the South Asian neighbourhood has been a cause of consternation as well as camaraderie for India. It’s neighbourhood policies, thus, cover a motley of pursuits, from implementing surgical strikes to prioritising bilateral cooperation and invigorating regional forums. Naturally, India’s engagement with its neighbouring countries—Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives—has been the topic of much deliberation in policy circles as well as in academia. While this has culminated in nuanced analysis of challenges and specialised recommendations from experts, it does not reflect the perceptions of the general population, shaped through media coverage, hearsay, and memories. However, for the world’s largest democracy—India—an understanding of public opinion is essential to respond effectively to the needs of its people.
India’s engagement with its neighbouring countries—Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives—has been the topic of much deliberation in policy circles as well as in academia.
The first iteration of ORF’s “Foreign Policy Survey”, devotes an entire chapter to understanding the perceptions of India’s urban youth towards ‘India and the Neighbourhood’, revealing deep predictable and unpredictable fault lines, worth contemplation. To understand the perceptions, the respondents were questioned on their trust in the above-mentioned countries on responsible behaviour, status of bilateral ties with India, and whether such engagements had increased in the last five years. Based on the optimism of the responses received, the countries were listed, indicating which enjoyed public favour and which did not.
Sri Lanka, has been perceived as the most congenial neighbour, despite concerns harboured by the Indian strategic community about its growing proximity with China and leasing of the Hambantota Port. This positive attitude is predominantly because of its niche achievements as a key trans-shipment hub in the east-west trade route, a growing market economy, and a flourishing tourism industry. However, there is also a flaw in this amicability, as respondents from Tamil Nadu remain skeptical, given the history of ethnic contention between them and Sri Lanka-based Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and the persisting problem of fishermen transgression in the Palk Strait and Bay of Bengal.
Similarly, Nepal has reached an overall complimentary vantage point in the survey despite having one of the most tumultuous relationships with India in the past year. The political map row and border dispute of 2020 had unearthed a host of memories like the economic blockade of 2015 in Nepal. Referred to as a humanitarian crisis, undercurrents of anti-Indian sentiments are still prevalent notwithstanding the recent efforts in trade or connectivity. Even with considerable media coverage, the Indian youth might have moved beyond such developments. This may be attributed to the shared cultural heritage between the two countries, free movement of people across the open border, and Nepal’s appeal as a tourist destination, which endows it with a positive visage.
Nepal has reached an overall complimentary vantage point in the survey despite having one of the most tumultuous relationships with India in the past year.
For Bhutan and the Maldives, the survey records an ambiguity, in public opinion. Given the geographical size and stable political climate in these countries, Indian media coverage is less, often issue based such as shared threat perceptions. For example, Bhutan received a lot of media attention during the Doklam tri-boundary region crisis of 2017, when India perceiving it as a mutual concern, held back Chinese road construction in the region. However, the prevailing ambiguity is also characterised by positive undertones, as Bhutan remains a favourite tourist destination, marked by an all-weather friendship between the two countries. Maldives too is a favourable destination for Indian tourists, attracting India’s development assistance in connectivity projects, post COVID economic recovery and infrastructure.
One of the most unpredictable outcomes of the poll has been about Bangladesh–India relations. Considered in policy circles, to be a ‘model’ partnership in South Asia, the country does not retain the same position in Indian public perception. In fact, rather than superlative, the views are more neutral, which can be traced to a dearth of media coverage on the booming developmental cooperation between the two countries. Nonetheless, there exists a general attitude of trust across India, except in Assam. This state, bordering Bangladesh, experiences frequent inflow of illegal Rohingya migrants from the latter, which explains its aura of doubt. Adding fuel to fire is the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act and the National Register of Citizens, prepared to identify illegal Bangladeshi migrants living in Assam.
Like Bangladesh, regarding Afghanistan too, the perceptions are neutral, owing to the absence of skirmishes, and a prevailing sense of empathy and diplomatic concord between the two countries. Results would perhaps have been more positive with adequate media coverage of India’s substantial development cooperation in Afghanistan, but a sizeable section of the respondents reported being unaware of the progress.
Maldives too is a favourable destination for Indian tourists, attracting India’s development assistance in connectivity projects, post COVID economic recovery and infrastructure.
The story is, however, starkly different although rather predictable regarding perceptions about Pakistan. Bilateral ties already overcast with the shadow of past animosity; recent developments have done little to change the existing public opinion. The country finds itself at the other end of the spectrum from Sri Lanka, with little trust in it for responsible conduct. Recurrent terrorist attacks on India, such as the Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama attack in 2019 perpetrated by Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad, provoking counter surgical strikes, made news headlines and were even adapted as films. Naturally, very few remain unaware of India’s dwindling relation with Pakistan, which has deteriorated further since the special status of Jammu and Kashmir was revoked by the Indian government.
The above observations suggest, a more positive inclination of India’s urban youth towards its eastern neighbourhood, complementing the Indian government’s interest to further cultivate relations in this geography. This idea has only been reinforced through several developments that have taken place since this survey was conducted, particularly the politics of vaccine diplomacy following the second wave of COVID-19. Therefore, the perceptions of India’s youth, who are vital stakeholders of its future, align well with the government’s prerogative to enhance eastern bilateral ties and strengthen the multilateral institutions like BIMSTEC. Nonetheless, more positive media coverage is desirable to further uplift public opinion.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Kolkata with the Strategic Studies Programme. Her area of research is India’s eastern maritime ...
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Sohini Nayak was a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Presently she is working on Nepal-India and Bhutan-India bilateral relations along with sub regionalism and ...
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