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As global powers race for space autonomy, the US faces hard lessons—balancing monopolies, budgets, and its own vulnerability in a shifting cosmos.
Image Source: Getty
The game of tariffs, cancellations, and sanctions has reached its climax in Washington, where the chickens have come home to roost. Today, commercial space companies and financiers have created a complex interplay of leverage among themselves, leaving the United States (US) government to seek a new grip on its space programme. As the Ukraine-Russia war reaches a point where peace negotiations have made inroads into the larger narrative surrounding it, the multipolar world’s primary attribute—the desire for autonomy—has come to the fore. This desire is fuelling an even more powerful drive to reduce vulnerabilities.
The Russia-Ukraine War has worsened global space cooperation in both commercial and non-commercial realms. At the beginning of the conflict, when Europe began cancelling its space missions in response to the situation, no one anticipated that the European Union (EU)-Russia and US-Russia space bilateral relations would remain suspended for over a few weeks or months. A lack of sensible dialogue and the erosion of back-door channels have opened up deep-rooted grievances, even among the best partners. Washington may be on the brink of realising that the erosion has hit the rock bed.
A lack of sensible dialogue and the erosion of back-door channels have opened up deep-rooted grievances, even among the best partners.
The space ecosystems around the world—including those in Europe and North America—have strongly expressed their opposition to monopolisation and the usurping of their ‘space autonomy.’ Europe seeks to achieve greater ‘space autonomy’ and reduce dependence on US technology and finances. Even in North America, Canadians have become protective of their commercial space entities, which are often overshadowed by the financial might of the US. Maxar—which provided geospatial images in the aftermath of India’s Operation Sindoor in Pakistan—was formerly a US-Canadian company. However, Canadians extricated their homegrown assets from the US to secure their autonomy. Today, Maxar is a Colorado-registered company, while its former parent—the Canadian company MDA—has decided to divest its investments and relocate its Canadian assets from Colorado back to Ontario. It is not just Canadians and Europeans interested in regaining their autonomy from the US; the meteoric rise of SpaceX since the mid-2000s can also be credited to Washington’s decisive push to regain autonomy over space-proven rocket engines. Washington spent considerable financial resources to eliminate its dependency on Russian RD-180 engines, which at one point remained the only option powering Boeing-Lockheed Martin’s workhorse Atlas V vehicles. As Washington has reduced its dependency on Moscow, an interesting rapprochement is on the horizon.
Since assuming office, the Second Trump Administration has emphasised tariffs and budget cuts amid growing concerns about the country's financial stability. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is among the numerous governmental agencies witnessing massive funding cutbacks. The multi-billion-dollar cuts to NASA's budget and the layoffs of thousands of temporary workers have been justified by the Trump Administration as a means to achieve taxpayer stewardship and cost efficiency in the national budget. In its pursuit to reduce/prune costs and reorient itself—a strategy backed by the Trump Administration—the US government's space programme risks becoming politically uncertain about its direction: whether to invest in the expensive human spaceflight to Mars or continue the long-standing, more cost-effective robotic missions it has pursued since the 1970s. It may be that the ambitious human spaceflight to Mars project is now appearing cost-efficient in times that demand US fiscal discipline. With the Moon as a top priority for all, including Russia, China, Japan, and India, and none of them interested in a Mars-oriented human spaceflight programme, Washington is perhaps recalibrating its space strategy and overruling the Mars caucus, led by SpaceX, in its space ecosystem.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is among the numerous governmental agencies witnessing massive funding cutbacks.
Texas—now the de facto hub for space innovation and manufacturing in the US—has its senator, Ted Cruz, subtly articulating that the Senate Commerce Committee under his leadership is more interested in reviving NASA's lost lustre. The Committee intends to:
The proposed US$10 billion Budget Reconciliation Bill put forth by the Committee could benefit a broader range of commercial space contractors that rely on the NASA ecosystem. This, in turn, may help expand the manufacturing footprint, a goal that the White House is currently pursuing.
There is a message coded in this reorientation of the US. All perceptive national capitals—particularly those with strong mandates—share one commonality: they dislike it when others, including their own, threaten to pull the plug, even if some capitals do the same to others. SpaceX’s recent threat, stemming from dissatisfaction with the White House, to decommission its Dragon space capsule—currently the only reliable vehicle transporting logistics and crew to the International Space Station (ISS)—would have significant ramifications. Even if this dissatisfaction is addressed, Washington—now fighting a looming economic recession—may become wary of creating enormous monopolies and brands, regardless of their efficacy and impact, if they seek to pressure it beyond their bounds. The White House may continue to use SpaceX's rideshares but is likely to develop alternative options, especially those that do not involve coercion. Boeing may be pushed to improve its Starliner capsule, which has had its share of glitches and may not have been as functionally excellent as SpaceX’s Dragon.
The Russia-US space diplomacy stands at a precipice: beyond the committed launches of the ISS, which sees Russian cosmonauts and US astronauts collaborating, there is little on the horizon for reviving their bilateral space relations.
President Trump appears eager for rapprochement with Moscow. If the conflict in Ukraine is to reach a lasting resolution, both the US and Russia must identify a new path for their bilateral relations. The Russia-US space diplomacy stands at a precipice: beyond the committed launches of the ISS, which sees Russian cosmonauts and US astronauts collaborating, there is little on the horizon for reviving their bilateral space relations. A joint space project could serve as the best flagship for a Russia-US détente. In this scenario, NASA and Roscosmos are well-positioned to lead the space initiative. Even if the cancelled joint US-Russia Venera-D mission to Venus—initially announced in 2017 and cancelled in 2022—is not revived, the Trump administration might take a feasible and impactful next step: postpone the retirement of the ISS beyond 2030 and thereby commit to rideshares on Soyuz. This would create three contingencies for the US’s access to low-Earth orbit: SpaceX, Boeing, and the Russian Soyuz. Washington may not want to depend on any single option and remain vulnerable.
These are cathartic times for global space aspirations. Nearly all major space agencies, companies, and astropolitically inclined governments have reached a shared conclusion: each striving for autonomy in space. Companies seek financing from investors and governments who do not exert undue influence; space agencies look for independence from governments that do not impose excessive delays and budget constraints; and pragmatic governments will not relinquish their dominant position in outer space, not even to the most influential brands, and instead, aim for diversification and ensuring contingencies. This fundamental desire for autonomy can drive friends apart and unite adversaries; it is here that astropolitics and geopolitics intersect.
Chaitanya Giri is a Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Observer Research Foundation.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Dr. Chaitanya Giri is a Fellow at ORF’s Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology. His work focuses on India’s space ecosystem and its interlinkages with ...
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