Unravelling AAP’s freebie model

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The crucial legislative assembly elections for Delhi is slated to be held on 5 February 2025. The incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government is seeking a third term in office after its back-to-back electoral landslides in 2015 and 2020. After spending a decade in power, the AAP is facing one of the toughest fights from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is in power at the Centre and in many states. While key parties are making all kinds of promises to voters, from making Delhi a global city to checking air pollution and cleaning the Yamuna River, freebies and welfare schemes are overwhelmingly dominating the campaign narratives.  A cursory glance at a number of schemes/freebies (see Table 1) promised by major parties indicates the election in the national capital is about “our freebies vs yours”. In some sense, this election is a test of AAP’s famed Welfare Model.

After spending a decade in power, the AAP is facing one of the toughest fights from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is in power at the Centre and in many states.

A peep into AAP’s welfare model 

It may be recalled that while the AAP, under the mercurial leadership of Arvind Kejriwal, toppled Sheila Dixit’s 15 years rein in Delhi on the back of its successful anti-corruption agitation in 2011, its stellar electoral performances in 2015 were largely premised on a slew of welfare promises or freebies. While the promise of enacting the much touted Jan Lokpal Bill was on the top of its poll manifesto, it was the promises of reducing electricity bills by half, free water, and free wifi that brought the newbie party a massive electoral dividend. The party honoured its poll promise in less than a month as the budget announced a series of freebies, including free electricity (up to 200 units), and free water, among others.

In 2020 polls, riding on the success of the welfare schemes and freebies, the AAP government expanded on these by adding several new schemes to its poll manifesto. Apart from continuing with free electricity and water, the party declared its intention to provide free public transport for women in Delhi Transport Corporation buses. To bolster its credibility, the AAP government had rolled out some of the freebies several months prior to the elections which included free rides for women in metro trains, waiver of arrears in water bills, and free entrance coaching to all students whose annual family income is less than INR 8 lakh. It announced to run a doorstep delivery of rations and provide free pilgrimage to 1 million senior citizens, among others. Given its credible records of delivery in the first term, these new promises of freebies along with its impressive works on education (revamping government schools) and healthcare (famed neighbourhood clinics or Mohalla Clinics as popularly known) delivered another electoral landslide in 2020 notwithstanding BJP’s massive efforts to unseat it. AAP’s freebies model along with its success stories in education and healthcare helped it to sweep Punjab elections in 2022. Beyond this, its freebies model such as free bus rides for women found resonance among other parties. The Congress Party in Karnataka made it a poll promise (part of five guarantees) and swept the state elections in 2023.

AAP’s freebies model along with its success stories in education and healthcare helped it to sweep Punjab elections in 2022.

Come the 2025 elections, AAP’s famed freebies model has taken an even more curious turn. Facing visible anti-incumbency pressure (the party denied tickets to 27 MLAs) after being in power for two consecutive terms and some of the schemes losing their vote bank appeal, the ruling party has only expanded the freebies matrix while seeking its bid for the third term. A major addition to existing freebies is the promise to provide a monthly allowance of INR 2,100 for women in Delhi. During the 2024-25 State Budget, the AAP government had announced to provide  INR 1,000  to unemployed women every month, but closer to the elections, it enhanced the amount to INR 2,100 under  Mahila Samman Yojana. This apart, the party has added other freebies such as Pujari Granthi Samman Yojana, under which the government will pay INR18,000 a month to Hindu and Sikh priests. Notably, to appease the middle class, the party has promised financial assistance to RWAs (Resident Welfare Associations) to hire private security for their colonies and Sanjeevani Yojana to provide free healthcare for senior citizens. There are numerous new schemes (15 guarantees) that the ruling party has outlined in the recently released poll manifesto. In short, AAP has considerably expanded its freebies kitty to retain its power in Delhi, setting the stage for counter-freebies from rival parties.

Implications of AAP’s freebies model 2.0

The most highlighted subsidies of the Delhi government are free electricity, water, and transport for women, and they have major allocations in the budget. In the below graph, it can be seen that there has been a continuous increase in the subsidy expenditure as a percentage of the Delhi budget between 2019 and 2024. While the total subsidies in 2014-15 were Rs 1,550 crore, this figure is projected to be Rs 11,000 crore in 2024-25. The subsidies have had an impact on capital expenditure, which has shrunk to 16,404 crore (of the total budget of Rs  88,200 crore). Between 2015-16 and 2021-22, on average the Delhi Govt. spent 39 percent less on capital outlay than it was originally budgeted, making it significantly higher than average underspending on capital outlay of 19 percent by other states.  The fallout of low capital expenditure is that Delhi’s roads, bridges and flyovers which need urgent repairs will have to wait.  If the government’s new promises like Rs 2,100 under Mahila Samman Yojana are to be implemented, this would further squeeze the allocation for the critical capital expenditure sector.

Chart-1: Subsidies as percentage of Delhi Budget

Source: Extracted from Delhi state budgets

Spectre of competitive populism

Freebies, notwithstanding the ballooning subsidies burden and creating financial pressure on the state, have had multiple positive impacts, particularly for the low-income sections even the middle class have benefited from free electricity and water schemes. However, the electoral appeal (and the past successes of AAP) of the freebies model has inevitably created space for competitive populism. To take the steam out of AAP’s freebies armoury, both the BJP and the Congress Party have come out with all kinds of welfare schemes, many of them outright freebies. For instance, the BJP, which shied away from taking freebies path in previous elections, has come out with a litany of schemes to outbid the AAP. The party has promised to dole out INR 2,500 to women under the Mahila Samridhi Yojana, another Rs 21,000 to pregnant women under the 'Chief Minister Matritva Suraksha Yojana and LPG cylinders for INR 500 to women from underprivileged backgrounds. A standout freebie is its readiness to launch Atal Canteen (emulating Jayalalitha’s famed Amma Canteen) which would provide subsidised meals to urban poor. The Congress, on the back of its electoral successes, particularly in Karnataka and Telangana through guarantee schemes has unleashed guarantees for Delhi voters. In short, the 2025 Delhi election is about “my freebies versus yours” and the real issues, whether air pollution, Yamuna cleaning, or infrastructural challenges have taken a backseat. 

Table 1: Welfare promises made by major parties in Delhi

Conclusion 

The 2025 Delhi elections should have been fought on the burning issues of air pollution, Yamuna river cleaning, crumbling infrastructure, employment and women’s safety rather than a litany of freebies. However, largely in the backdrop of AAP’s electorally rewarding freebies model, the rival parties have doubled down with their list of welfare schemes and freebies to appeal to the voters.  Irrespective of who wins the polls, this has serious consequences for the city state’s fiscal situation and its ambition to become a liveable global city.

Niranjan Sahoo is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation

Prarthna Bhattacharya Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation

• Domestic Politics and Governance
• State Level Politics
• India
• Aam Aadmi Party
• app governance model in Delhi
• delhi election 2025
• delhi election freebies
• delhi election political parties
• delhi elections 2025 freebies
• delhi government subsidy
• Delhi Government Welfare Schemes
• freebies announced by Delhi political parties
• freebies in delhi elections

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