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The Pahalgam attack exposes Pakistan Army’s frustration as Kashmir embraces peace, pushing it to revive terrorism through proxies to disrupt the region's progress
Image Source: Getty
The tragic terror assault in Pahalgam, located in Anantnag district of South Kashmir, on 22 April 2025, resulted in the death of 26 innocent tourists and left many others injured. The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy outfit linked to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), took responsibility for the terror act. This incident marks the worst attack since the February 2019 Pulwama event, which took the lives of 40 security personnel. The tragedy resonated across the nation, also uniting Kashmiris across all faiths and identities against this barbaric act and in denouncing Pakistan’s terror actions in the region. For the first time in the 35 years of violence and terrorism in the Valley, a total shutdown occurred, accompanied by protests throughout the region condemning the terrorism. Growing calls for justice have emerged, with the Valley witnessing demonstrations against terrorism, including candlelight vigils, in response to this horror, condemned by Islam.
The evolving situation in Kashmir has compelled the Pakistani Army chief, Asim Munir, to assume control of the proxy war and become directly involved in the Pahalgam attack.
The Pahalgam attack reflects the rising frustration of Pakistani terror groups and the military establishment, stemming from the absence of support for terrorism in the valley, diplomatic isolation, domestic pressures, and unrest in Pakistan-administered territories. In the past five years, the evolving situation in Kashmir has compelled the Pakistani Army chief, Asim Munir, to assume control of the proxy war and become directly involved in the Pahalgam attack. On 15 April, Asim Munir, a madrasa student, delivered a speech urging Pakistanis to uphold the two-nation theory, claiming Kashmir is “our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it”, and will support Kashmiris. On 18 April, LeT commander, Saifullah Musa, hosted a rally in Rawalkot, a town in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (Pok), and declared that New Delhi wants to change demography in Kashmir: “Jihad will continue, guns will rage, and beheadings will continue in Kashmir”.
After the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35 A in 2019, the inhabitants of the Kashmir Valley emerged from the shadow of terrorism with an enhanced aspiration to assimilate with the broader Indian nation and its culture. The decline in terror incidents and local terrorism recruitments—dropping from 120 in 2021 to just seven in 2024—highlights a significant contrast to previous periods in Kashmir. The declining trend in local recruitments, coupled with a stringent security grid and the absence of Over Ground Workers (OGWs) support, has compelled Pakistan to dispatch a greater number of foreign terrorists. In 2024, out of the 68 terrorists neutralised in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), 42 were foreigners, armed with M4 carbine assault rifles, night vision goggles, as well as highly encrypted telecommunications equipment typically utilised by the Pakistani Army. Due to the absence of ground support in the Valley and their inability to confront the security forces in urban regions, the terrorists were compelled to select dense forests as the location to engage with the security forces. The terrorists were forced to relocate from the Valley to the south of Pir Panjal range and Jammu following 2020, employing guerrilla tactics—attacking security forces and subsequently retreating to the dense forests in the mountain area to regroup for another assault.
The declining trend in local recruitments, coupled with a stringent security grid and the absence of Over Ground Workers (OGWs) support, has compelled Pakistan to dispatch a greater number of foreign terrorists.
Since 2019, the economic transformation in J&K, along with the tourism boom over the past three years, has led to an economic growth rate of 7.8 percent, marginally surpassing the national average of 7.77 percent. The tourism sector's contribution to this growth also rose, creating employment opportunities for thousands of local youth through government initiatives such as the homestay project, which receives special assistance for each unit under the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Kashmir has consistently functioned as a significant narrative and political strategy for the Pakistani Army establishment and its government, effectively redirecting focus from the nation's political instability and economic difficulties. Over the past four years, Pakistan's economy has experienced a downturn, and the Army's grip on the country is currently being contested by the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). Since the Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan, the TTP has heightened its attacks. In the first 21 months of the Taliban rule, Pakistan observed a surge of 73 percent in terror attacks, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa experiencing an alarming 279.8 percent increase, escalating from 572 incidents in 2021 to 2,173 incidents in 2024. Similarly, the BLA and BLF have intensified their attacks against Pakistani establishments, particularly its military, from various fronts.
Over the past four years, Pakistan's economy has experienced a downturn, and the Army's grip on the country is currently being contested by the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF).
In light of the altered circumstances in the Kashmir Valley, characterised by economic transformation, a peaceful environment, booming tourism, and transforming local perceptions, Pakistan endeavoured to incite unrest and enhance radicalisation primarily through virtual terror groups. They intensified activities opposing India across social media platforms, and in October 2024, Indian security agencies reported over 2,000 concerning posts, compared to only 89 during the corresponding period in 2023; however, they ultimately did not succeed in these endeavours, as Kashmir and its people were happily enjoying life after 2019 and had the region was fast regaining its reputation as one of the best holiday destinations, becoming a go-to destination for both domestic and foreign tourists. Even the Pakistani terror groups and their proxies were unable to disrupt positive developments in Kashmir applauded by foreign diplomats and dignitaries from time to time.
The Chief of Army of Pakistan, expressing frustration over the nation's security challenges and masking his own failures, has taken measures to revive the divisive rhetoric associated with the two-nation theory. He also characterised Kashmir as Pakistan’s “Jugular vein” to boost the morale of terrorist factions, with the central theme of alleged demographic change and endorsed within days by LeT commander Saifullah Musa, at a rally hosted in Rawalkot. This signal was sufficient for the TRF and its terrorists to target a popular tourist destination, sabotage the region’s economic growth, and create fear psychosis, as well as to inspire terror recruitment to sustain the strategy of terrorism in the Valley. The act was also designed to maintain a proxy war, impede normalisation efforts, and obstruct the integration of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Asif Munir was also implicated in the February 2019 Pulwama attack, as he was leading the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s notorious intelligence agency. During his period as ISI chief from October 2018 to June 2019, Kashmir saw heightened terror activities and radicalisation among the Kashmiri youth.
Asif Munir was also implicated in the February 2019 Pulwama attack, as he was leading the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s notorious intelligence agency.
The targeted strategy of inquiring about the names and identities of the deceased tourists constitutes a broader initiative by the Pakistani military establishment aimed at fostering divisions within India's predominantly homogeneous society, thus intensifying the communal divide. It is noteworthy that only one Kashmiri individual lost his life in the Pahalgam terror attack; specifically, a pony operator who endeavoured to disarm a terrorist by seizing a weapon.
In the past five years, New Delhi has accomplished significant milestones in Kashmir, marked by Kashmiri youth taking to the streets to protest against terrorism for the first time in 35 years of conflict. To combat Pakistani terrorism in J&K, New Delhi must enhance diplomatic efforts to reveal the Pakistani army's malevolent intentions, especially within the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Additionally, New Delhi should utilise its strategic partnerships with the United States (US) and European nations to impose sanctions on the Pakistani Military establishment. It's crucial to achieve strategic clarity on how Pakistan sustains its proxy war in J&K with local support at an all-time low.
Ayjaz Wani (PhD) is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation
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Ayjaz Wani (Phd) is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. Based out of Mumbai, he tracks China’s relations with Central Asia, Pakistan and ...
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