Caught between two colliding hegemons both of whom believe in and function on the idea of a unipolar world, the political⎯strategic⎯economic⎯military reset in Asia last week is one more round of power play. And in the backyard of China’s multi⎯designated Core Leader Xi Jinping, this round goes to US President Donald Trump. There are two resets — North and South Koreas, the journey for which has begun though the destination is fuzzy; and India⎯China, the foundations for which have been laid and we wait for the building to come up — that seems to have sowed the seeds for a third (India⎯Pakistan), which we watch with dollops of scepticism.
First, the much⎯celebrated and unbelievable turnaround of North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong⎯un on 27 April towards denuclearisation and peace with South Korea, including a walk towards one language, one culture, one history, one time zone — and one nation. This follows Trump’s pressure on Kim as well as on Xi. That Kim chose to come out waving a white flag now, and not earlier or later, coincides with Trump’s tweets. But Kim is an unpredictable leader and we wait to see how the opening up of his nuclear sites to global media finally plays out. Could he be the leader who brought prosperity to North Korea?
Kim Jong⎯un is an unpredictable leader and we wait to see how the opening up of his nuclear sites to global media finally plays out.
Second, the rather overrated reset between India and China, once again coinciding with Trump’s unleashing a trade war with China — definitely a correlation, if not a causality — under which the world’s two most populous nations agreed to hold back their militaries and end the trust deficit, though the real and troubling issue of India’s sovereignty violation through China’s CPEC passing through Indian territory remains untouched. For China, a fast⎯growing India is a natural partner; for India, a large and strong China is a necessary embrace. We look at the 27⎯28 April meeting of neighbours as little more than symbolism and signalling. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi is playing ball, the ball itself remains in the court of an aggressive Xi. Will the ride over the calm waters of East Lake translate into a strategic and military calm over which the two nations can negotiate more pressing issues like trade and terror?
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third, the somewhat hopeful peace between India and Pakistan, which the foreign policy fraternity seems to be hinging its bets on, following the model created by North and South Korea. Trump’s pressure on Pakistan through the end of military aid on the one hand and hard reaction to trade and intellectual property violations by its latest sponsor China on the other seem to be creating new alignments, forcing Xi to retreat in order to get the leadership of Financial Action Task Force in the immediate term. In this clash of hegemons, Pakistan remains a bystander on its own soil, wondering how long its all⎯weather friend China will continue to whether the US and international pressure on a terror⎯sponsoring state.
For China, a fast⎯growing India is a natural partner; for India, a large and strong China is a necessary embrace. We look at the 27⎯28 April meeting of neighbours as little more than symbolism and signalling.
Despite the joint military drills in September, an India⎯Pakistan reset is far⎯fetched. What endears the global community towards optimism in North Korea’s Kim is because a dictator, who controls every institution in a nation, from the government and judiciary to military and media, can get things done. Like in the case of China, you only need to convince this one person. In a democracy like India, there are several checks and balances that prevent a unilateral decision. The case of Pakistan is even more complex: nobody knows who to deal with or who is calling the shots — the military, the civilian government, the judiciary or the terrorists. Having nurtured hatred as an existential lifeboat, this failing state will implode before it warms up to peace.
Whatever the case and complexities, once we step back and observe this Asian geopolitical play from 36,000 feet, we see that it is being driven by Trump’s actions, as he defangs the two rogue nations China is hyphenated with — finger⎯on⎯the⎯nuclear⎯button North Korea and terror⎯as⎯state⎯policy Pakistan. This duo is the only friend China has in the region. It is in a high⎯alert mode with most nations in its neighbourhood, from India, South Korea and Vietnam to Japan, Philippines and Taiwan. Its relationship with Russia is linked with Socialism of the past and the $850 billion gas pipeline of the future, while Mongolia remains a silent spectator.
As the centre of global growth shifts towards the East, Xi needs to realise that even though it is the largest and its greatest beneficiary, the new centre of gravity is not China but the region it resides in (Asia) and the world from which it sources its growth (the West).
Xi’s aggression in the region, from South China Sea to the Indian Ocean region and its beggar⎯thy⎯partner economic pipelines to Sri Lanka and now Pakistan through his most ambitious project, the Belt and Road Initiative, is not a currency of collaboration but a medium of isolation. In a unipolar world of the past, this was possible, as the case of Latin America has shown. In a multipolar world, it is not.
As the centre of global growth shifts towards the East, Xi needs to realise that even though it is the largest and its greatest beneficiary, the new centre of gravity is not China but the region it resides in (Asia) and the world from which it sources its growth (the West). Exhausted by China’s refusal to engage the world by the rule of law, using intellectual property theft and trade barriers as its levers to growth, the West seems to have had enough of this aggression.
Aggression today cannot yield leadership. And hence, the Asia reset that should have been drafted and crafted by Xi is instead being pushed down Xi’s throat by Trump. The real reset, therefore, is between US and China that Trump is pushing for, and in which North and South Korea, India and Pakistan, and India and China are collateral opportunities.
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