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With Trump’s unexpected nod last month, the UK-Mauritius Chagos deal moves forward, but questions over security, justice, and regional influence persist
Image Source: Getty
The United States (US) President Donald Trump has approved the United Kingdom’s decision to recognise Mauritian sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago, while retaining control of the joint US-UK military base on the largest island, Diego Garcia, through a 99-year lease. Trump’s sign-off surprised many, as several senior Republicans in the US, including key members in the Trump administration, strongly opposed the deal. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, prior to entering office, had criticised the draft agreement for posing “a serious threat to U.S. security by ceding the archipelago - with its strategic base used by U.S. long-range bombers as well as warships - to a country allied with China”.
Trump’s sign-off surprised many, as several senior Republicans in the US, including key members in the Trump administration, strongly opposed the deal.
There is a strong lobby against the Chagos deal both in the UK and the US, mainly within the Conservative and Republican parties respectively, that revolve primarily around a potential China threat–“that ceding sovereignty over Diego Garcia will enable future Mauritian Governments to make further financial demands, perhaps initiate a bidding war with China, or even terminate the lease agreement altogether.” Regional experts have dismissed these concerns, emphasising that there is simply no evidence to support assertions about China’s military plans for Diego Garcia or that Mauritius would allow a Chinese military base on the archipelago. There is also a wide consensus that Mauritius has closer ties with countries such as France, India and Australia than it does with China. In fact, UK National Security Adviser, Jonathan Powell, recently stated in a radio interview that he was reassured by the fact that “Mauritius is very very close indeed to India and the Indians have also welcomed this agreement because they see it as so important for security in the Indian Ocean.”
This deal has been in the works since UK-Mauritius talks were officially announced in November 2022 under the then Prime Ministers Rishi Sunak and Pravind Jugnauth. The UK had made clear from the very beginning that Diego Garcia was a vital asset and “with any negotiated outcome, it has to be beyond doubt that there is no danger to this vital national US-UK asset of not being able to function and operate properly”. At the time, the UK had stated its intention to resolve all outstanding issues and to arrive at an agreement by early 2023.
A change of government in all three countries involved complicated negotiations, resulting in several starts and stalls. In the UK, when the newly elected Labour government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer took office in July 2024, it moved quickly to put together an agreement within the mark of completing 100 days in office. This agreement was signed in October and heralded as ‘historic’ and “a seminal moment in UK-Mauritius relations.” Then, in November 2024, Mauritius saw a change of government following elections. Newly elected Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam expressed reservations about the deal struck by his predecessor and ordered an independent review.
At the time, the UK had stated its intention to resolve all outstanding issues and to arrive at an agreement by early 2023.
Ramgoolam has been vocal in criticising the previous deal, reportedly calling it a “sell out”. He expressed concerns regarding the deal being “inflation-proof” and has sought a variable exchange rate. He further wanted some of the payments to be front-loaded. Ramgoolam’s government submitted counter-proposals to address these and other concerns. Though no details are available about the new proposals, UK parliamentary debates indicate that the new deal includes a front-loaded payment.
Once Trump took office, both Starmer and Ramgoolam acutely understood that no matter what they agreed upon, there would be no deal without Trump’s approval. Ramgoolam, when questioned in Parliament, said that Mauritius welcomed the prospect of the US examining the deal, and that “President Trump is not a wolf. Let him see if the agreement is good or not.” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy went further and placed the ball firmly in America’s court, emphasising, “If President Trump doesn't like the deal, the deal will not go forward”.
Given Trump’s transactional foreign policy style, it was feared that he would not be won over by a deal that simply set out to right a historical wrong but also potentially jeopardised US interests in the Indo-Pacific, as believed by many Republicans. However, Trump ended up surprising everyone by publicly backing the deal as early as February 2025, during Starmer’s visit to the White House. Trump told Starmer that he had “a feeling it’s going to work out very well.” In a quick turnaround on 2 April 2025, it was announced that Trump had given his final sign-off and the UK was free to finalise the agreement.
Though no details are available about the new proposals, UK parliamentary debates indicate that the new deal includes a front-loaded payment.
The US has, over the years, displayed an unwillingness to be dragged into the sovereignty dispute between the UK and Mauritius, but has always maintained the vital importance of Diego Garcia to its military operations. Though Washington’s official stance has been that this is “a bilateral matter” for the UK and Mauritius to work out, it has a large stake in the final outcome. Referring to the October agreement, Powell confirmed that under Biden, the US was intimately involved in the negotiations and that “every single sentence and paragraph has been through an inter-agency process.” Given that Trump signed off on the deal without raising any objections, it is clear that the current version addresses all US security red lines. It also appears that in operational terms, things remain status quo for the US, and the deal guarantees the continuity of US operations.
It is stated that the UK will agree to Mauritian sovereignty over the entire Chagos Archipelago, including Diego Garcia. Mauritius, in turn, will authorise the UK to exercise its sovereign rights with respect to Diego Garcia for an initial period of 99 years. There will be a financial settlement attached to the agreement that is “acceptable to both sides.” The UK and Mauritius will commit to supporting Chagossians’ welfare through a resettlement fund and a programme of visits to the archipelago. Mauritius will be free to implement a resettlement programme to islands other than Diego Garcia.
The UK and Mauritius will commit to supporting Chagossians’ welfare through a resettlement fund and a programme of visits to the archipelago.
There was initially bipartisan consensus in the UK that handing over the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius was the right thing to do. It was the previous Conservative government in the UK that began negotiations with Mauritius. However, today, many Conservative MPs oppose the deal. The Opposition criticises the reported cost of the deal, though reports vary vastly from £9 billion to £18 billion. In some ways, this is simply attributable to how domestic politics works. Decrying government spending is the role of the opposition. Amidst high energy prices and increased cost of living, questions in the UK parliament about the Chagos financial settlement are to be expected. The government has made clear that it “does not normally reveal payments for our military bases overseas” and that “it would be inappropriate to publicise further details of these arrangements at this stage.”
Government sources have confirmed that it is now down to the UK and Mauritius to finalise the deal, with no further sign-off needed from the US. Trump’s approval has sped up the process and generally augurs well for the progress of the deal. Yet, the road ahead is not a smooth one. Some Chagossians have protested that their community, yet again, has been excluded from the process. While the agreement commits to supporting Chagossian welfare, for this deal to truly right the wrongs of the past, more will need to be done to address Chagossian grievances.
Some Chagossians have protested that their community, yet again, has been excluded from the process.
Looking ahead, all three governments will necessarily want the opportunity to scrutinise the treaty before ratification. Concerns so far raised will resurface with newer ones possibly coming up, and these will need to be debated again. Some of these concerns are worth contemplating. For instance, the question of whether Diego Garcia’s surrounding islands “could be gradually flooded with Chinese-financed infrastructure projects, migrant workers, and other forms of ‘commercial’ presence” is a legitimate one. The UK government, however, has been unequivocal in its assertion that the commitments contained in the current deal ensure more robust security for the region than previously, including the Mauritian guarantee that it will not allow the presence of foreign security forces on the outer islands.
Vinitha Revi is an Independent Scholar associated with the Observer Research Foundation.
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Dr. Vinitha Revi is an Independent Scholar associated with ORF-Chennai. Her PhD was in International Relations and focused on India-UK relations in the post-colonial period. ...
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