On 3 June, videos of troops aligned with the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) driving around the compound of Tripoli’s international airport surfaced on social media, providing initial signs that from the warring General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army’s (LNA). Now, aspirational strongman Haftar has balked, and offered a ceasefire.
The Libyan crisis has been at play since 2011, when a multi-state NATO-led mission installed a no-fly zone over the country as a civil war raged on the ground against the regime of the now deceased dictator Muammar Gaddafi, who was killed in October of the same year. However, since then, Libya has become the ring of an international power struggle, descending into chaos, and erasing any illusions of a peaceful transfer of power via a democratic process to the people of Libya. While the GNA and LNA struggled with each other over control, Islamist groups had managed to take this opportunity presented via a power vacuum to strengthen their own bases. This included groups
aligned both with Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS), who managed to assert control over major towns and cities across the coast such as Benghazi, Sirte and so on. Fighting these terror groups saw both the GNA and LNA secure backing from different blocks of international and regional powers, seeking their own agendas amidst the war.
Libya has become the ring of an international power struggle, descending into chaos, and erasing any illusions of a peaceful transfer of power via a democratic process to the people of Libya.
However, over the past few months, international tussle over the support for GNA under the auspice of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj on one side and Haftar the other had intensified significantly. Haftar, backed by Russia, UAE, Egypt and initially even France was for long expected to significantly challenge, and possibly win the war against a precariously knit-together GNA. Despite multiple rounds of talks in Europe, Haftar largely refused to agree upon any compromise, looking for outright control of oil-rich Libya under his leadership as a new military strongman. To aid his single-minded agenda, Moscow last month also strengthened support by sending fighter aircraft from its base in Syria to help Haftar-led militias looking to take over Tripoli after years of effort, and also
enlisting Syrian fighters to strengthen ground support. Meanwhile, the UAE reportedly provided a flow of arms and money, and is even
accused of breaking an international arms embargo.
On the other side, the GNA, while recognised by the UN, has got most of its recent support from Turkey, which has deployed significant military strength behind forces loyal them. The reason for the Russian air deployment in Libya was the fear that Haftar and his forces had started to lose ground, after a wave of victories by the GNA’s fighters backed by Turkish military resources in Libya’s western regions. The gains made by Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan’s intervention were arguably significant, with a headline of a European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) analysis declaring that ‘
its Turkey’s Libya now.’
The reason for the Russian air deployment in Libya was the fear that Haftar and his forces had started to lose ground, after a wave of victories by the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) fighters backed by Turkish military resources in Libya’s western regions.
On 6 June, in Egypt’s capital Cairo, flanked by president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Libyan parliament speaker Aquila Saleh, Haftar agreed to a ceasefire, with further peace negotiations to be held in Geneva, Switzerland. A ceasefire would bring a temporary end to Middle East’s regional battles playing out in Libya, with the UAE’s support to Haftar countered by Turkey’s ramped up support to GNA, with
reports also suggesting Qatar providing logistical support to Ankara as the UAE and Saudi led blockade against Doha
entered its third year this month. Turkey had taken advantage and provided Qatar with material, political and military aid as the Gulf Cooperation Council
went to war within itself in 2017.
The ceasefire initiative also comes at a time of global turmoil, with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) ravaging economies world over as states are forced to initiate nationwide lockdowns, stalling businesses and knocking a major blow to financial systems, including for those that are needed to fund expensive proxy wars abroad. Both of Haftar’s major foreign backers, Russia and the UAE, have suffered significantly due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Russia saw a rapid growth in both the number of cases, and ensuing fatalities with over
450,000 cases and nearly 6,000 deaths, and in the month of May, clocking over 10,000 cases a day, forcing Moscow to divert political and financial attention to the pandemic. Meanwhile the UAE, under stringent lockdown procedures, with
over 38,000 cases and 275 deaths, has also taken a significant economic hit with closure of majority of its industry, with tourism, aviation, hospitality and so on grinding to a complete halt. According to some estimates, 70% of small and medium-sized companies based in Dubai are
expected to go out of business over the coming months.
Both of Haftar’s major foreign backers, Russia and the UAE, have suffered significantly due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
The distraction caused by COVID-19 has come to indirectly damage Haftar’s campaign itself. President al-Sisi has said that the ceasefire was Haftar’s initiative, however, it may very well have been the geopolitical realities exacerbated by the likes of Russia, the UAE and even Turkey till a certain extent, having to priorities domestic compulsions due to the pandemic.
The GNA, however, may also look at this situation differently, that of a weak moment for Haftar, and for them to potentially provide a final fatal blow in a bid to ouster his campaign all together. A ceasefire constructed on Haftar’s terms may not be palatable both to the GNA and to Turkey. As per
reports, the GNA has already targeted the city of Sirte since, and the blocks spokesperson has dashed hopes of a compromise by
stating: “we didn’t start this war, but we will choose the time and place when it ends.”
The GNA’s UN backing should be aligned with regional peace, and not Tripoli’s own political agendas and vendettas.
European powers should seize this break to bring Libya’s almost decade-long tryst with unprecedented violence to an end, and make sure the Geneva talks materialise into a lasting solution, leveraging both Ankara’s gains and United Nations’ processes to bring a level of stability upon which lasting peace can be built. The GNA’s UN backing should be aligned with regional peace, and not Tripoli’s own political agendas and vendettas. This may be easier said than done, with
recent tensions between Europe, US, Turkey and NATO also adding a fresh layer of challenges.
The distraction in the form of a global health macabre, which is expected to spread further in
fragile states over the next few months as testing metrics improve, arguably helped scale back the impending status quos till a certain degree. The opportunity is ripe to bring Libya, besieged by war and a
poverty-led migrant crisis, towards a realistic chance of peace and political stability. European powers must work together and take a lead role as a collective so as to not squander this opening that is not only critical for the MENA region, but also European security equally.
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