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The suspension of US military aid has weakened Ukraine’s position while emboldening Russia, raising questions about Kyiv’s ability to sustain the war
Image Source: Getty
Jockeying continues on the issue of bringing an end to the Ukraine war. Big questions remain on the future of the peace plan—indeed, whether it can be worked out at all to the satisfaction of both parties. The Trump administration suspended and then reinstated Ukraine’s weapons supply and intelligence sharing to pressure President Zelensky to end the war on their terms. Ukraine is now backing a US plan for a 30-day ceasefire, but even after a lengthy telephone conversation with President Trump, Vladimir Putin is not biting.
The temporary suspension of weapons and intelligence in Ukraine has concentrated minds in Kyiv and Europe. While Europeans have promised to double down on their assistance to Ukraine, the reality is that US systems play a major role in protecting against Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, target designation for HIMARS-guided multiple launch rocket system as well as target designation for long-range strikes on Russia. The big question is whether Ukraine can sustain the war without US aid—and if so, for how long.
Ukraine is now backing a US plan for a 30-day ceasefire, but even after a lengthy telephone conversation with President Trump, Vladimir Putin is not biting.
Russian forces currently control 20 percent of Ukraine and though for the past year they have maintained steady pressure because of their larger numbers and willingness to take casualties, they have not achieved much.
The Institute for the Study of War has estimated that despite several offensives in 2024, the Russians “have failed to break Ukrainian lines or even drive them back very far”. In August 2024, the Russians were said to be 10 km from Pokrovosk, a city in eastern Ukraine. But six months later, they have not yet entered the city, though the Ukrainians have more or less evacuated it. Indeed, last year, Ukraine captured a chunk of the Kursk district in Russia, but they have now been pushed out from most of it. The temporary stoppage of US intelligence may have been a factor in the success of the Russian offensive in Kursk.
The reality is that the Russians occupy a large chunk of Ukraine, and the Ukrainians lack the means to liberate the areas that have been captured. Their erstwhile American allies have now bluntly told them that they can forget reclaiming all their lost territory. Meanwhile, Russian rockets and drones continue to terrorise Ukrainian cities destroying power grids, schools, homes and public infrastructure.
Thus far, US efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine have largely focused on pressuring Kyiv. From declaring that NATO membership will not be considered to making it clear that Ukraine will have to accept the loss of national territory, the US has sweetened the deal for Moscow. This has been compounded by the suspension of military aid and intelligence support, further weakening Ukraine’s position. The Institute for the Study of War has assessed that this could embolden the Russians to enhance their military pressure on Ukraine. So far, the Russians have rejected making any concessions in the peace negotiations or accepting any proposals and the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. It remains to be seen if the US is able to pressure President Putin to accept the US-Ukraine ceasefire proposal and the possibility of talks thereafter.
Russian rockets and drones continue to terrorise Ukrainian cities destroying power grids, schools, homes and public infrastructure.
So, for the present, we must also consider the possibility of a continuance of the war into the coming months, if not years. The US is the biggest single military donor to Ukraine having provided US$64 billion in military aid and a roughly similar amount of non-military assistance. The Europeans are now racing to develop their own defence system, as well as to assist Ukraine if things do not finally work out on the Ukraine-Russia front.
A significant portion of US assistance has been spent domestically on procuring American military equipment for Ukraine and training Ukrainian personnel. However, the deliveries, including artillery shells, armoured vehicles, sophisticated air defence systems, anti-tank missiles and long-range missiles, have been invaluable for the Ukrainian war effort. Collectively, the Europeans have supplied more military aid (US$66 billion) than the US, but that has been in dribbles from various countries and often comprises diverse systems. But US systems have made the crucial difference. For example, the Patriot is the only system that can shoot down Russian missiles.
Bastian Giegerich, the Director-General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, says that neither side gained a strategic advantage in 2024, and Russian forces “continued to experience significant casualties and equipment losses for only marginal gains.” According to him, Russia is now leaning on North Korea and Iran for munitions and materials, and though the Russian defence industry has shown resilience, it will not offset battlefield losses into the future. IISS estimates that Russia will not have sufficient Main Battle Tanks to conduct offensives beyond early 2026.
Ukraine, too, is not in good shape and given its relative size vis-à-vis Russia, but it is by no means losing the war. The Russians have suffered heavy casualties in their offensive actions since 2023 with just incremental gain of Ukraine territory. Estimates are that the Russians have lost anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000 dead, with half that number dying in 2024.
The Russians have suffered heavy casualties in their offensive actions since 2023 with just incremental gain of Ukraine territory.
A unique feature of Ukrainian strategy is its dependence on “fast innovation cycles” and the development of a range of UAVs to attack Russia. But though it has fought a tenacious defensive battle, it has made little headway in recovering lost territories. Given the loss of American aid, its situation could be precarious unless Europe significantly boosts its military assistance. Nevertheless, given the ground situation, the Ukrainian defence is unlikely to simply collapse.
Ukrainian innovations, especially in the area of drones, have changed the face of war. In the initial phase, artillery, missiles, tanks and trench warfare dominated, today, all of them remain important factors in the war, but the bulk of the killing is now done by drones. Both sides use them freely, and here, Russia has the advantage of numbers, while Ukraine relies on innovation. Ukrainian robotic sea vessels have driven the Russian Navy from the seas off Ukraine, and even Ukrainian ground attack drones have now made their appearance. In December, in the Kharkiv front, the Ukrainians launched an all-drone attack using some 50 unmanned ground vehicles armed with rifles and machine guns, following aerial reconnaissance and attack drones on Russian positions.
It must be noted though that drones are most effective when used in combination with other systems, say, artillery and tanks. Ukraine has effectively used drone units to offset its under-strength infantry.
Ukraine says it has made more than one million FPV drones in 2024 and plans to make three times that number this year. Drones range from short-range FPV drones to the larger Iranian-made Shaheds and Mohajer 6 or TU-141 of Ukraine. These may be used for reconnaissance or to drop grenades, mortar rounds cluster munitions, and even thermobaric charges on the battlefield.
Ukrainian robotic sea vessels have driven the Russian Navy from the seas off Ukraine, and even Ukrainian ground attack drones have now made their appearance.
Another major innovation of the Ukrainians is the Delta battlefield management system. This integrates data from a range of streams—satellites, drones, radars, ground sensors, frontline reports—into a single interface and provides real-time awareness to the Ukrainian forces. According to reports, the Ukrainian Avengers AI platform is interlocked with Delta. Underlying the system is the American Palantir AI company’s software.
There is another constantly changing area of battle—electronic warfare. The Russians are strong in this area and the Ukrainians depend on rapid innovation to counter them. Most drones need electronic signals to fly, and this has led to a proliferation of jamming systems on the battlefield to disable GPS systems, military communications, navigation, radar and surveillance systems. GPS jamming has led to the ineffectiveness of American GPS-guided shells. To bypass the jamming of GPS-guided artillery shells the Ukrainians have integrated a laser designator onto a reconnaissance drone. To overcome jamming Ukrainians have developed “frequency hopping” systems for their drones and robots. Surveillance drones guided by AI are now being developed. Both Russia and Ukraine are also using fibre-optic cables tethered to their short-range drones which have proved to be remarkably effective.
There is little doubt that a permanent US aid cutoff would boost Russia’s ability to attrite Ukrainian forces. As it is the present American tilt towards the Russians is likely to make them less—rather than more—amenable to making peace on any terms but their own. But Ukraine’s will to fight remains strong with or without American support and its own rapidly evolving drone army as well as enhanced artillery and mortar ammunition production, will make any Russian victory improbable.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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