India’s security forces are replacing seasonal pauses with sustained counterterror operations across Jammu and Kashmir
Unlike previous years, when extreme weather conditions during the coldest weeks of Chillai Kalan from 21 December to 31 January forced Indian security agencies to reduce their counterterrorism efforts in the higher districts of the Kashmir Valley, the Indian Army and other security forces have stepped up their winter offensive against terrorists in Jammu’s Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban districts. The a rmy, in close coordination with the Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) Police and other central forces, has established forward posts with technology-enabled surveillance to confine terrorists to inhospitable terrain, choke supply chains, and prevent them from reaching populated areas.
The minimal civilian presence and reduced counterterrorism operations by India’s security forces during these winter weeks provided terrorists with ample opportunities to avoid detection. However, this unexpected escalation in offensive action by Indian security agencies has ensured that only 30-35 Pakistani terrorists in Jammu have moved to these higher, inhospitable snowbound areas. The harsh winter conditions mean very little local support, and terrorists are forced to rely on coercion tactics against villagers for sustenance and shelter.
The harsh winter conditions mean very little local support, and terrorists are forced to rely on coercion tactics against villagers for sustenance and shelter.
In addition to the absence of local support, the infiltrated terrorists encounter a different environment, marked by a significant reduction in local recruitment. While local recruitment has reduced due to constant outreach efforts by the Union Territory administration and security agencies, the elimination of 46 terrorists, predominantly Pakistani nationals, in 35 specialised operations carried out by security forces in 2025, has also pushed their numbers beyond that of local recruits.
Since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, Pakistan has faced challenges in attracting separatists and local recruits to terror groups. This has occurred due to changes in conflict dynamics and growing doubts among J&K’s population about separatism and terrorism. With diminished support, logistical constraints, and a strong security presence in the valley, terror groups shifted their operations to forests and south of the Pir Panjal. The security grid in Rajouri and Poonch was less effective because specific forces were reassigned to Eastern Ladakh. The local recruitment declined from 166 in 2020 to seven in 2024 and just one in 2025. This drop resulted from ongoing outreach and enhanced security measures. With only one local recruit in 2025, the Pakistani-backed terrorist group faced mounting challenges due to logistical difficulties and a shifting security landscape. This led them and their state supporters to boost the presence of foreign terrorists, change their geographic focus and terrain, and launch attacks on unarmed tourists to incite communal tensions and psychological warfare.
With only one local recruit in 2025, the Pakistani-backed terrorist group faced mounting challenges due to logistical difficulties and a shifting security landscape.
The brutal Pahalgam terror attack, carried out by Pakistani terrorists, killed 26 tourists, to flare communal tensions and undermine the integration of people of J&K with the rest of India. To hold those responsible accountable, New Delhi launched Operation Sindoor, conducting nine targeted strikes against hideouts and terror camps within Pakistani territory, including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and eliminating around 100 terrorists. Operation Sindoor increased the cost of terrorism for Pakistan by targeting key airbases and strategic assets within Pakistani territory. It also led to the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. The Operation established a new standard for quick retaliation without requiring full mobilisation. As a result, Pakistan was compelled to relocate terror launch pads further inside its territory, away from the International Border (IB) and the Line of Control (LoC).
The year was marked by ongoing counterterrorism initiatives, resolute military engagements along the LoC, and enhanced internal security measures, signalling a long-term transformation in the region's security dynamics. In 2025, violence was the lowest in the past 35 years, despite the Pahalgam terror attack in April that attracted national as well as global attention. Official data reported 92 deaths in terror-related incidents, including 46 terrorists, 28 civilians, and 17 security personnel. This marks a notable decrease compared to previous years: 127 in 2024, 134 in 2023, 253 in 2022, 274 in 2021, and 321 in 2020. To flush out the remaining terrorists in Kashmir, the administration has banned the unauthorised use of Virtual Private Network (VPN) across the Valley for two months. As terrorists face increasing logistical challenges, authorities also prohibited trekking in popular high-altitude forest areas like Margan Top, Chuharnag, and Sinthan Top in the Pir Panjal ranges. This was done to ensure public safety and security amidst counterterrorism operations launched by the army on both sides of the Pir Panjal mountains.
Security forces along the IB and LoC have effectively thwarted infiltration attempts through increased vigilance, advanced technology, and strong interagency cooperation. By December 2025, they prevented multiple infiltration attempts, killed eight terrorists, and pushed five back into Pakistan along the LoC. On the IB, high-tech measures by the Border Security Force led to the recovery of 278 drones and the seizure of over 380 kg of heroin, more than 200 weapons, and the apprehension of 53 Pakistani intruders.
In 2025, violence was the lowest in the past 35 years, despite the Pahalgam terror attack in April that attracted national as well as global attention.
After an eight-month hiatus following Operation Sindoor, Pakistan has discreetly restarted activities at 72 terror launch pads along the Jammu frontier. Approximately 120 terrorists based there are under close surveillance by security forces. Terrorists have taken advantage of winter conditions to cross the LoC and IB. However, increased surveillance will now force them to explore new infiltration routes with concealment provided by the Pakistani army. Indian security agencies, including the BSF and the Indian Army, along the IB and LoC, are employing proactive measures, such as deploying forward posts staffed by specially trained winter-warfare units and using advanced technology. These technologies include thermal imagers, surveillance drones, radars, and ground sensors that detect movement and monitor hostile activity in harsh winter conditions. Given these proactive strategies, the border districts of Rajouri-Poonch have already seen a marked decline in terrorist activity in 2025.
The winter offensive is ongoing as the tourism sector recovers. Security officials are increasing counterterrorism efforts and working to dismantle remaining terrorist networks in J&K, along the LoC, and on the IB. Although Operation Sindoor has been temporarily halted, security forces remain highly alert to any potential misadventure from Pakistan. However, the security agencies face a new challenge in the form of hybrid terrorism, where educated professionals secretly use their skills to support violence and anti-state activities. These individuals are highly radicalised and receive online bomb-making training through hidden digital channels, making them hard to track and posing a new difficulty for security agencies. Addressing this threat requires improved intelligence sharing and proactive measures through coordinated surveillance and counter-narrative efforts.
Ayjaz Wani is a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Ayjaz Wani (Phd) is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. Based out of Mumbai, he tracks China’s relations with Central Asia, Pakistan and ...
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