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With radical Islamist groups regaining ground in Bangladesh after regime change, border vulnerabilities and anti-India rhetorics are on the rise.
Image Source: Getty
The 55th Director General-level border coordination conference (held 16-20 February 2025) between the Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) brought several issues to light. This was the first top-level meeting between the two border guarding forces after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government in August 2024. Trans-border crimes, attacks on BSF personnel and Indian civilians of border villages by Bangladesh-based miscreants, activities of Indian insurgent groups in Bangladesh, border infrastructure, construction of single-row fencing, and the Coordinated Border Management Plan were some of the issues that were discussed.
During the talks, the BGB reportedly objected to the BSF building a single-row fence (SRF) within 150 yards of the border, requesting a joint inspection and renegotiation of terms. However, the BSF, which is erecting SRF at approximately 90 points along the India-Bangladesh border, refused to revisit the terms, citing the joint record of discussions finalised earlier between the two border forces. Notably, the BGB’s objections emerged only after the change of regime in Dhaka.
The BGB’s recent posturing at the border and during the talks, along with the instability in Bangladesh, have highlighted emerging security challenges on India’s eastern frontier.
The BGB’s recent posturing at the border and during the talks, along with the instability in Bangladesh, have highlighted emerging security challenges on India’s eastern frontier. These include the rise of radical Islamist elements, which the Sheikh Hasina government had previously controlled effectively. More concerning is the growing anti-India rhetoric in the country.
The India-Bangladesh border remains vulnerable to exploitation by radical Islamic outfits and transnational criminal networks for infiltration and smuggling. Stretches of the border are sensitive due to the activities of Salafist elements. Bangladeshi Islamic preachers regularly visit the interiors of bordering districts like Malda, Murshidabad, and North 24 Parganas in West Bengal and participate in religious discourses. The growth of religious institutions along the border and attempts to change the orientation of religious practices in border areas have also been identified.
The ethnic composition and religious and linguistic similarities of the border population have made it easier for Bangladesh-based radical elements to assimilate with the local populace and attempt ingress. Over the years, illegal migration from Bangladesh has increased and has also affected the demographic profile of border districts in Assam, West Bengal, and Tripura. The growth in religious institutions and visits of fundamentalist preachers from Bangladesh, along with the proliferation of extremist literature in Bengali on social media, have impacted the border population and added to India’s security concerns.
Over the years, illegal migration from Bangladesh has increased and has also affected the demographic profile of border districts in Assam, West Bengal, and Tripura.
Neutralisation of terror modules of the proscribed Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and their links to radical/fundamentalist entities in West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh are indicative of the threat perception from Bangladesh-based terror groups. These groups exploit the shared religious and linguistic identity along the border to try to establish bases in West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura and expand their network to the hinterland.
Following the August 2024 regime change, there has been an increase in the activities of anti-India terrorists and radical Islamic groups in Bangladesh. During the transition phase, several radicals and terrorists, including ABT Chief Mufti Jashimuddin Rahmani, Ikramul Haque, Indian operations head of the ABT Jamat-ul-Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya, Chief Shamim Mahfuz, and Sheikh Aslam, either escaped or were released. Consequently, Islamic radicals and terror entities are currently operating freely in Bangladesh. Golam Sarowar Rahat, the second-in-command of the banned JMB, was recently sighted with Bangladesh’s interim government head, Mohammad Yunus, while visiting the alleged secret detention centre Aynaghar in Dhaka.
Since August 2024, the JMB has enhanced its organisational activities and is also exploring aligning with the Hefazat-e-Islami (HeI), Bangladesh’s largest radical Islamic organisation. Maulana Mamunul Haque, Joint Secretary General of HeI, along with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) Bangladesh, is working to establish a common platform for Islamic groups. Pakistani nationals also attended the recent meetings of this group. After the regime change, JeI revived and reasserted its presence. As per Indian security agencies’ assessment, the JeI, in recent meetings, has exhorted supporters to establish an Islamic state under the leadership of its chief, Shafiqur Rahman.
As per Indian security agencies’ assessment, the JeI, in recent meetings, has exhorted supporters to establish an Islamic state under the leadership of its chief, Shafiqur Rahman.
The Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), a pro-Caliphate transnational radical Islamic organisation, which played a key role in the regime change, has also emerged from the shadows to organise nationwide demonstrations, including a ‘March for Khilafat’ rally in Dhaka on 7 March 2025. HuT cadres are backed by some advisers of the interim government, such as Asif Nazrul, Nahid Islam, Asif Mahmud Sajeeb Bhuiyan, and Mehfuz Alam. Nasimul Gani, one of the founder members of HuT, was appointed Home Secretary. Despite being banned, HuT is allowed to assert its Caliphate ideology in public spaces. Its recruitment targets educated youth seeking to exploit the current dissatisfaction with secular governance by offering a radical Islamist alternative of a Caliphate. Its activities have also been noted in India, where it was recently proscribed by the Ministry of Home Affairs. Investigations by the National Investigation Agency have indicated that HuT has a presence in some urban areas in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and West Bengal, where it is involved in radicalising vulnerable youths.
Another important development is the revival of the Al-Qaeda-linked Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami-Bangladesh (HuJI-B), a terrorist group that had been dormant for around a decade. HuJI-B has penetrated the HeI, and several Qawmi madrassas are now pro-HuJI. Moreover, post-regime change, it has increased its social media footprint.
An additional cause of concern is the presence of over 1.3 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, as they are prone to radicalisation and recruitment by terrorist groups. The Pakistan-backed Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army is trying to gain control over some refugee camps to strengthen its links with the drug-smuggling crime syndicate and build a dedicated cadre of radicalised Rohingyas who can be used to target India at an opportune time. Further, Rohingya refugees in crowded camps seeking better living conditions often attempt to escape from Cox’s Bazaar and Bhashan Char Island through maritime and land routes, including by infiltrating into India via Tripura, Assam, and West Bengal.
The Pakistan-backed Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army is trying to gain control over some refugee camps to strengthen its links with the drug-smuggling crime syndicate and build a dedicated cadre of radicalised Rohingyas who can be used to target India at an opportune time.
In Bangladesh, the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) remains volatile due to internecine conflict among ethnic groups. The systematic settlement of Bengali Muslim settlers by Bangladeshi security forces has altered the demography of CHT. The volatile situation in the CHT has security implications for India as the region borders Tripura and Mizoram. Indian insurgent groups, which are under pressure in the Myanmar Naga Hills due to the Myanmar Army’s operations, may try to set up their bases in CHT.
The resurgence of radical Islamist groups is also manifesting in the growing number of attacks being reported on religious minorities across Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh’s regime continues to be in denial about atrocities against minorities. Unsurprisingly, BGB Director General Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman categorically denied any attacks on minorities in the recent past, alleging that such news is merely media exaggeration.
These dynamics are closely aligned with the changing contours of Bangladesh-Pakistan ties. Since the regime change, Bangladesh has moved closer to Pakistan. There has also been an upswing in the two countries’ military, diplomatic, and trade relations. Pakistan and Bangladesh have resumed direct trade for the first time since 1971, with the first cargo departing from Port Qasim. A Bangladeshi delegation, led by Lt Gen SM Kamrul Hasan, travelled to Pakistan on 13-18 January 2025 and met top military leaders, including Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir. Further, Bangladesh allowed a delegation from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), led by Major General Shahid Amir Afsar, to visit sensitive areas near the Indian border in January 2025.
Indian security agencies have indicated that Pakistan-based terrorist outfits like the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and HuJI are by exploiting the regime change to revive their connections with Bangladesh-based radical and terror groups to launch anti-India activities.
ISI’s attempts to establish a foothold in strategic areas of Bangladesh is a move fraught with danger for India. Pakistan’s strategy also involves encouraging the Islamic identity as a key variable in Bangladeshi politics. Indian security agencies have indicated that Pakistan-based terrorist outfits like the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and HuJI are by exploiting the regime change to revive their connections with Bangladesh-based radical and terror groups to launch anti-India activities.
Prognosis
A consolidation of Islamic elements is underway in Bangladesh after the recent regime change. Aimed at further Islamisation of Bangladesh, Islamic organisations are working to establish a common platform to seize power and discredit India. The prevailing anti-India sentiment will be exploited by radical Islamic forces in Bangladesh and inimical forces like Pakistan to target India and Indian interests in the region. The current instability in Bangladesh poses a serious challenge to border management and larger national security.
Kanchan Lakshman is a Delhi-based security analyst. His areas of specialisation include terrorism, radicalisation, left-wing extremism, and internal security.
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Kanchan Lakshman is a Delhi-based security analyst. His area of specialisation includes terrorism, radicalisation, Left Wing Extremism & internal security. ...
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