Latin American countries remain divided over their stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine as Russia finds consonance with leaders of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Brazil on its "anti-West" agenda
This brief is a part of The Ukraine Crisis: Cause and Course of the Conflict.
On 21 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as independent states. Two days later, Ukraine declared a state of emergency in response to the ‘unprovoked’ military action by the Russian troops. The full-scale attack on Ukraine from three directions, including on the capital city Kyiv, set off a domino effect of heavy sanctions, international condemnation, and economic isolation against Russia. Despite western efforts to push a globally resolute diplomatic, economic, and political isolation of Russia, countries of Latin America remain divided in their response, with a few condemning the Russian invasion while others supporting Russia tacitly.
The Latin American countries played a familiar role for the erstwhile Soviet Union back in the early 1960s and 70s, and the Ukrainian crisis displays similar partnerships based on common ideologies and interests.
The mixed response from Latin American countries to the Russian invasion reflects Russia’s soft power strategies in aligning familiar alliances in that continent, dating back to the Cold War. The Latin American countries played a familiar role for the erstwhile Soviet Union back in the early 1960s and 70s, and the Ukrainian crisis displays similar partnerships based on common ideologies and interests. Though Putin has dropped the erstwhile socialist agenda, both the parties share a common agenda. Some countries in Latin America remain opposed to western dominance, in particular of the United States (US). As such, the complex mix of Latin American response to the Russian military action in Ukraine presents a case for analysis.
a) Strong condemnation
The governments of Argentina, Colombia, and Chile have strongly condemned the Russian invasion with Colombian President, Iván Duque, speaking out against Russia’s authoritative misuse of power. The foreign ministry of Argentina further called for Russia to cease all military actions while Chile gave its support to the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Furthermore, the Latin American leaders from Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay signed a joint letter denouncing the invasion. On 24 February 2022, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called for Russia “not to invade.” Due to Mexico’s foreign policy being regulated under the Estrada Doctrine, Mexico is unable to intervene or impose sanctions on Russia. However, Russia has gained some support from Latin American countries such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Brazil.
The Cuban-Russo alliance dates back to the Cold War era. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, Moscow provided Havana with about US $4 billion in annual subsidies through the 1980s. Cuba’s political leanings and its geopolitical position allowed Soviet intelligence to support socialist agendas throughout the Americas. As for the current Ukrainian crisis, Cuba has blamed the turmoil on the US accusing them of ‘manipulating the international community and calling for ‘constructive and respectful dialogue’. Besides, Cuba has voted ‘no’ to the resolution reprimanding Russia in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
The foreign ministry of Argentina further called for Russia to cease all military actions while Chile gave its support to the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
Relations between Nicaragua and Russia ride on their alliance founded during the Soviet years, emerging from the support extended during the Sandinista movement in the 1980s. In recent years, the two countries have shared political and military support, with Nicaragua allowing Russian naval exercises in territorial waters in 2008 as well as in 2015. The Russian contribution in Nicaraguan military modernisation is significant as Moscow has sold an array of military equipment to the latter including BMP-3 and BTR-80 armoured vehicles, Mirazh patrol craft, Molina missile boats, T-72 tanks and transport planes for search and rescue missions. On the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, Nicaragua has voted to open a debate on Ukraine at the UNHRC, although on the resolution reprimanding Russia, they have voted against it. The Nicaraguan government blames the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) for the tragedy in Ukraine.
Venezuela’s stance on the Ukrainian crisis would be the most expected as Caracas is one of Moscow’s strongest allies in the region. Venezuela’s de facto leader Nicolás Maduro gave Putin his full support, stating that Ukrainian fighters will fail as Russia will come out of this united and victorious. As the two nations have strong ties in sectors such as oil, military, and finance systems, the Venezuelan government’s stance blaming the NATO countries is quite expected.
The Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, has maintained his position as ‘neutral’ on the Ukrainian conflict. However, from an economic assessment, there is a sense that Brazil’s dependence on fertilisers and oil could be harmed if Russia continues its aggressive actions in Ukraine. Perhaps, such apprehensions have led the Brazilian foreign ministry to take a stricter stance on Russia at the international level. Reflecting on one such enunciations, Ronaldo Costa, Brazil’s representative to the UN, stated Brazil’s position as ‘strongly condemning the violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine’. Brazil would be mindful of its relationship with Russia which is centered on bilateral trade and cooperation through multilateral forums such as the BRICS. In the past, however, Brazil had abstained from voting against Russia in a 2014 UN resolution condemning Russia’s actions in Crimea.
As for Russia’s broad strategy in Latin America, Putin has implemented a series of soft power policies in Latin America since the early 2000s, which has now placed the Russian federation with a possible leveraging position in the regional politics. Depending on how the Russian invasion of Ukraine ends, Russia may well turn to some of the countries in Latin America for better ties and influence in the region.
The Mexico-Russian relations are relatively neutral; however, with the US stance on abolishing NAFTA and the harsh immigration policies placed on Mexico City, perhaps creates an opportunity for Russia to take advantage of.
Russia’s foreign policy reflects Putin’s ambitions to gain global influence and to challenge the western powers. The narrative curated by Russian media depicts the US as responsible for the invasion, blaming Washington for meddling in Russian territorial affairs. The heavy sanctions imposed on Russia have crippled the Russian Ruble with 124 RUB converting to only US$1. As Russia maintains political goodwill with Latin America, the federation has targeted nations with weakened political foundations for support. With countries such as Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua facing an isolated position in global affairs, Russia can align with such countries to counter American presence in the international space. In 2018 Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil went through political transitions, creating partnership opportunities for Russia and weakening US ties. Due to the region’s economic and social challenges, this Latin American vulnerability creates a favorable circumstance for Russia. The Russian government has invested heavily in the region primarily through arms sales, oil supply, and extensive political outreach. Though Russia appears to gain financially from the region, it further increases Putin’s profile in Latin America, gaining significant influence in geopolitics. Russian firms have made investments in the oil and gas sector in Bolivia, Mexico, and Venezuela. In 2016, Russia purchased 90 percent of its imported pork from Brazil and 55 percent of its imported beef from Brazil and Paraguay, indicating the trade leverage that Russia holds in this region.
Despite growing convergences, Russian influences have found consonance with the already existing ‘anti-West’ agenda of leaders in the region. The Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro have spoken out against the US for meddling in the Ukrainian crisis. Bolsonaro is yet to receive an invitation to Washington as the Biden administration appears to be avoiding the Brazilian leader. The Mexico-Russian relations are relatively neutral; however, with the US stance on abolishing NAFTA and the harsh immigration policies placed on Mexico City, perhaps creates an opportunity for Russia to take advantage of. With the current sanctions in place against Russia, its trade outreach is likely to remain limited. On the other hand, the Ukrainian crisis could very well lead to the formation of a stronger axis with some Latin American countries. The US’ global call to rally against Russia and strengthen the European Union (EU) have put significant pressure on Russia to open and bolster alternate channels of political and economic relationship. While Russia’s growing relationship with China is an example, its ties with Latin American countries will be under close scrutiny.
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