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A decade of uneven progress has positioned the Three Seas Initiative at the intersection of economic integration, energy security, and military mobility
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The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) represents a political and economic forum uniting thirteen European Union (EU) countries situated between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas.
Established in 2015 by the former presidents of Poland and Croatia, the 3SI aims primarily to foster North-South connectivity and to surmount the Soviet-era dominance of East-West infrastructure, thereby addressing a structural disparity in the post-Cold War European context. This strategic shift sought to foster economic growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, enhance its energy security, and reinforce its place as a robust anchor within the wider EU and NATO structures.
Established in 2015 by the former presidents of Poland and Croatia, the 3SI aims primarily to foster North-South connectivity and to surmount the Soviet-era dominance of East-West infrastructure, thereby addressing a structural disparity in the post-Cold War European context.
The 3SI’s 10th anniversary in 2025 represents an important inflexion point, shifting the focus from initial objectives to an evaluation of actual outcomes and the initiative’s continuing strategic significance. Conceived to strengthen EU integration and reduce historical economic gaps, the initiative’s primary purpose was to develop modern transport infrastructure while enhancing the energy and digital connectivity of the European market.
Europe’s complex geopolitical landscape highlights the continued importance of the Three Seas Initiative. Although the CEE region boasts high GDP growth, it faces an infrastructure funding shortfall exceeding €570 billion within the EU. Addressing this deficit extends beyond economic concerns and is closely tied to security and cohesion. For example, the CEE region’s capacity to reduce its reliance on Russia has been hampered by the dominance of historical east-west pipelines.
Established in 2019, the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund (3SIIF) serves as an economic driver aimed at reducing reliance on national and EU public financing. The 3SIIF operates as an equity fund with a commercial emphasis, seeking to attract private investment globally. The fund has secured €800 million across nine countries, complementing national funding (27 percent) and CEF grants (27 percent) for key projects with a long-term target of €3–5 billion. The stability and investment potential of the region are reinforced by the very existence of the 3SIIF, supported by strategic pledges from partners such as the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
Reflecting on a decade of the Three Seas Initiative reveals notable but uneven progress. A total of 143 connectivity projects, with a combined estimated cost of €111 billion, have been prioritised within the programme, and 40 percent of the overall budget has been secured so far. By 2024, 19 projects had advanced considerably, of which 14 have been completed.
The 3SI gained further ground following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With NATO forces and assets requiring deployment along the Eastern Flank, the conflict underscored the strategic importance of the North–South corridor for military mobility. In this context, projects such as Via Carpatia and Rail Baltica have acquired dual-use significance.
The 3SI’s prominent achievements lie in the field of energy security. These include ventures such as the Gas Interconnection Poland–Lithuania (GIPL) pipeline, increased LNG terminal capacity in Poland and Croatia, and the integration of Baltic gas markets into the broader European framework. Other initiatives enhancing the region’s energy autonomy include the Baltic Pipe linking the gas networks of Poland and Norway, as well as parts of the BRUA corridor that connect Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria. Projects such as the Rail Baltica and the planned Rail-2-Sea link connecting Gdańsk and Constanň are enhancing rail infrastructure. Meanwhile, transport connectivity has progressed significantly through the Via Carpatia highway.
Efforts such as the Central European Drone Demonstrator illustrate increasing cross-border collaboration in the digital and technical sectors. However, constraints associated with a rotating presidency and the absence of a secretariat have led to organisational and fundraising challenges, with the 3SI Investment Fund progressing more slowly than expected. Meanwhile, conflicting EU priorities, particularly the need to align major infrastructure with the stringent requirements of the European Green Deal, often result in delayed authorisation and financing for conventional transport and energy projects.
The 3SI gained further ground following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With NATO forces and assets requiring deployment along the Eastern Flank, the conflict underscored the strategic importance of the North–South corridor for military mobility. In this context, projects such as Via Carpatia and Rail Baltica have acquired dual-use significance. This has led to renewed efforts to set technical standards for bridge-load capacities and to reduce bureaucratic obstacles to military movement.
The initiative’s emphasis has shifted from economic development to resilience and security. The 3SI now serves as a platform for rebuilding Ukraine and facilitating its integration with EU transport and energy systems. This includes the establishment of standard 1435 mm rail-gauge connections to address longstanding infrastructure gaps, following the inclusion of Moldova and Ukraine as associate participating states in the 3SI. The growing importance of cooperative international supply chains, coupled with the strategic imperative to diversify beyond traditional routes, defines this broader geopolitical shift, positioning the CEE region at the centre of an evolving connectivity landscape.
The 3SI is not only a regional integration endeavour; it is a critical component of the democratic world's vision to ensure secure, rules-based global commercial connectivity.
The launch of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is subtly yet strategically linked to the CEE region’s expanding engagement with corridor-based and Middle East-Europe supply networks. Alongside growing North-South infrastructure, the 3SI is increasingly being envisaged as a northern extension of IMEC, following Greece’s admission to the initiative in 2023. This linkage would connect southern European ports such as Thessaloniki and Koper to the CEE region and the Baltic Sea. Thus, the 3SI is not only a regional integration endeavour; it is a critical component of the democratic world's vision to ensure secure, rules-based global commercial connectivity.
To address the disruptions brought about by the rotating presidency, the Initiative could consider establishing a permanent Secretariat. This staffed entity would ensure sustained project management, guarantee continuity, and maintain a stable investment pipeline. A second recommendation entails prioritising projects based on their dual-use benefit, namely economic value and military mobility. Aligning project selection with both the EU’s Connecting Europe Facility and EU-NATO Military Mobility goals could enhance the region’s deterrence posture and enable steadier funding streams. The 3SI could further strengthen the CEE region’s integration by institutionalising its governance structure and accelerating the development of dual-use North-South corridors. This would enable a secure, resilient, and dynamically interconnected European landscape in the future.
A decade on, the Three Seas Initiative stands at a pivotal crossroads. It has evolved into a strategic necessity, serving as a crucial logistical hub and "democratic shield" for the continent rather than merely a tool to help the CEE region catch up with Western Europe.
Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director - Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
Shivangi Yadav is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director - Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on ...
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Shivangi Yadav is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation. ...
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