The outcome of the Sri Lankan elections remains shrouded in uncertainty, but Delhi seeks to strengthen bilateral relations regardless of the new leadership
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On 21 September 2024, Sri Lanka will be heading to a crucial Presidential election—the first one since it experienced deep economic and political turmoil. Unlike previous polls, this election is more competitive and has seen the highest number of contestants. A total of 38 candidates will be contesting this year. On the ground, it seems that the left-inclined Anura Dissanayake is in the lead and has an advantage over the others—albeit it might not translate into victory. India, which has assisted the country during the crisis and has seen a recent upswing in relations, is willing to work with any incoming government. However, Delhi will have to find a way to leverage and build upon its goodwill with this incoming government, as its assistance is now being perceived variedly in the island nation.
The current election has four crucial candidates: National People’s Power-Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (NPP-JVP)’s Anura Dissanayake; Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB)’s Sajith Premadasa; United National Party (UNP)’s Ranil Wickremesinghe who is running independently; Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)’s Namal Rajapaksa. As per the August edition of the Institute for Health Policy (IHP)’s polling, Anura is in the lead, closely followed by Sajith and Ranil. This reporting is not starkly different from what people think on the ground. Anura seems to have made inroads amongst youths, the working class, teachers, and the left ecosystem, going beyond his usual three percent vote base. This swell in popularity is for two reasons:
Anura’s populist, anti-elitist, and anti-corruption campaign has continued to portray him as a traditional outsider fighting against the corrupt elite and their mainstream parties.
For many voters—Anura is an embodiment of the Aragalaya movement (struggle for a systemic change) of 2022 that came to an abrupt pause with Ranil Wickremesinghe being nominated as the president of the country. Anura’s populist, anti-elitist, and anti-corruption campaign has continued to portray him as a traditional outsider fighting against the corrupt elite and their mainstream parties. He has embraced a populist persona with promises of limiting corruption, holding politicians accountable, reversing privatisation, strengthening domestic production, redistributing wealth, and expanding social welfare programmes. Furthermore, with four heavyweights contesting in the elections, loyalties, and leadership of several mainstream parties have gone to a toss in the country, barring Anura’s JVP, which has only three MPs in the Parliament. This horse trading has further eroded the voter's trust in mainstream parties. In this regard, Anura is perceived as an exemption—an outsider who could break from the chains of corruption and offer good governance and a favourable solution to their economic distress. As a result, his rallies have seen a surge in recent weeks, even in the regions where his party has had no stronghold in the past.
Second, there has been a surge in his voter base, while other parties are witnessing more divisions. Anura has been able to muster votes from youth with little or no memory of the 1970s and 80s insurgencies led by his party. In fact, with 1 million new voters in the country, his party would be at an advantage over others. Furthermore, the Sinhala voter base is likely to support the JVP due to the widespread disillusionment with the SLPP and its contribution to the economic crisis. On the other hand, the UNP split in 2020 and the subsequent formation of SJB has also splintered the votes of Tamils and Muslims who make up 11 percent and 10 percent of the country’s population. For instance, in the case of the Tamil parties—the Ceylon Workers Congress is supporting Ranil, and the Federal Party or the ITAK have pledged support to Sajith Premadasa. Similarly, the Muslim-led National Congress is with Ranil Wickremesinghe, while the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress has backed Sajith Premadasa. A common Tamil candidate—P Ariyanethran—supported by smaller Tamil parties could also lead to some (limited) vote distribution. This is an advantage to Anura and his party.
With four heavyweights contesting in the elections, loyalties, and leadership of several mainstream parties have gone to a toss in the country, barring Anura’s JVP, which has only three MPs in the Parliament.
However, the competition between JVP-NPP, SJB, and UNP is still uptight. The aged demographic is still sceptical of AKD due to JVP's role in the insurgencies in the past. Tamils and traditional voter bases of other politicians will also hesitate to vote for him due to his previous alliance with SLPP. For many educated and urban voters, Ranil’s continuity in policy or Sajith’s moderate stance is the need of the hour rather than the radical changes promised by Anura. Even Namal’s decision to contest in the election is likely aimed at retaining his core voter base and stopping them from voting for Anura or other contestants. As a result, this could perhaps be the first time that no candidate could secure a margin of 50 percent to win the elections, and second and third preferences could determine the outcome.
Given the uncertainty of the upcoming elections, India has embraced a wait-and-watch approach. It sees the upcoming election as a purely domestic issue and is willing to work with any incoming government, including the JVP despite its radical call for reforms and anti-Indian nationalist ideology in the past. As a result, the Indian External Affairs Minister and the National Security Advisor have met main political leaders across party lines in recent months. It is this calculated approach and the goodwill generated by the US$4 billion assistance that India has not been subject to the anti-India rhetoric that is usually seen during the elections.
Many express gratitude towards Indian assistance and believe Sri Lanka should connect and integrate better with India to expedite their recovery and enhance economic growth.
Nonetheless, in private, the goodwill generated by India is a subject of intense debate, especially in the civil society which is still disenchanted with their political class. Many express gratitude towards Indian assistance and believe Sri Lanka should connect and integrate better with India to expedite their recovery and enhance economic growth. However, given the history and complex politics of the country, Indian assistance and loans and the subsequent leveraging through private investments are being termed as opportunistic and arm-twisting. Similar concerns about Indian firms competing with others to invest in Sri Lanka’s state-owned enterprises are raised. A recent viral video of a Sri Lankan claiming India to be controlling the migration underscores these reservations for India and Indian investments despite its assistance. Some have also expressed concerns over new loans from India, even as Colombo struggles to pay its old debts. Such scepticism has increased with the economic crisis and subsequent piling of Chinese debts. Finally, some Indian projects have also been politicised to criticise the Sri Lankan government for not being transparent and promoting corruption.
With highly polarised and competitive elections, Anura is currently in the lead, expanding far beyond his 3-percent-voter base. However, there is uncertainty concerning the outcome. To sum up this uncertainty, an experienced journalist remarked saying that “crowds at rallies and online polls do not define the final results—only the voters on the 21st will.” On its part, India seems to be aware of this uncertainty. There is a growing understanding that it will have to work with any leader elected to power. However, it will have to redraw the redlines and explore potential ways to further its bilateral relations with the new leadership. Most importantly it will have to further its goodwill in the country despite being perceived variedly by the civil society.
Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
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Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is an Associate Fellow with ORFs Strategic Studies Programme. He focuses on broader strategic and security related-developments throughout the South Asian region ...
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