Bangladesh’s new regime has signalled a new inclusive and multilateral approach to addressing the Rohingya refugee crisis
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The Rohingya crisis, involving over a million refugees in Bangladesh, is one of South Asia’s most pressing humanitarian challenges. This crisis was exacerbated following a brutal crackdown on the Rohingya Muslims by Myanmar’s military in 2017, escalating into a prolonged refugee crisis. Bangladesh faces immense pressure to accommodate this vulnerable population while dealing with domestic and political challenges. The crisis has now reached a critical juncture, marked by escalating internal pressures within Bangladesh, a massive political transition, and growing border clashes with Myanmar. These developments raise important questions about the effectiveness of regional and international responses.
The fate of the Rohingyas has long been intertwined with Bangladesh’s political landscape, where national interests and humanitarian obligations have often clashed. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina played a central role in shaping Bangladesh’s response to the crisis. Under her administration, over a million Rohingya refugees were allowed to take shelter in Cox’s Bazar in the aftermath of Myanmar’s violent military operations in the state of Rakhine. In 2019, her government launched the Joint Response Plan, in collaboration with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), to provide refugees with food, shelter, healthcare, and education, despite significant resource limitations.
Concerns began to grow over the long-term presence of refugees in Bangladesh, with fears of increased radicalisation and the potential recruitment of refugees by extremist groups.
Initially, these humanitarian decisions garnered public support. However, as the refugee crisis dragged on, sentiments shifted. Concerns began to grow over the long-term presence of refugees in Bangladesh, with fears of increased radicalisation and the potential recruitment of refugees by extremist groups. These growing anxieties, along with resource competition and rising local tensions, created a volatile political environment. The geopolitical complexities of the situation further complicated Hasina’s approach. Bangladesh called for the repatriation of the Rohingyas and even signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Myanmar in 2018 to facilitate their return. However, Myanmar’s reluctance to accept the refugees back led to little progress on this front.
Hasina also sought regional support, particularly from China and India, but both countries were hesitant to directly address the Rohingya issue due to their strategic interests in the region. China, for example, provided aid to Bangladesh but refrained from using the term “Rohingya”, instead referring to them as “displaced persons” to avoid angering Myanmar. Similarly, India expressed security concerns about the refugees reaching its borders and prioritised strengthening its ties with the Myanmar government.
As international efforts faltered and domestic pressures mounted, Hasina’s government faced increasing scrutiny. The rising anti-Rohingya sentiment, compounded by economic challenges, fueled tensions between local communities and refugees. In late 2024, after nearly 15 years in power, Hasina was ousted by a student protest amid allegations of corruption, authoritarianism, and governance issues. This sudden political shift has raised significant concerns about the future of the Rohingya refugees, and the management of their camps in a country grappling with instability.
Tasked with stabilising a disrupted nation, the new interim government led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus hopes to give the Rohingyas renewed hope. Yunus, long known for his advocacy for vulnerable populations, now faces the challenge of navigating Bangladesh’s complex political landscape while addressing this humanitarian crisis. As Yunus navigates these dynamics, he faces significant challenges from the rising anti-Rohingya sentiment within Bangladesh and pressures from local communities amid an escalation of violence in and around the refugee camps. These camps have long been viewed as a symbol of Hasina’s administration due to her active involvement in establishing them. Since the fall of her government, the camps were subjected to suspicion by locals, further fueling hostility against the Rohingyas.
As violence escalates against the Rohingyas after this takeover in Myanmar, refugees are attempting perilous journeys across the Bay of Bengal to seek safety, with reports indicating that thousands have crossed the border since September 2024.
In addition to domestic challenges, regional security in the region has been weakening because of constant conflicts in western Myanmar along the border with Bangladesh. Since the militant Arakan Army (AA) defeated the State Administration Council (SAC) in late 2023, it has gained control over many parts of Rakhine, particularly in towns near the Bangladesh border. As violence escalates against the Rohingyas after this takeover in Myanmar, refugees are attempting perilous journeys across the Bay of Bengal to seek safety, with reports indicating that thousands have crossed the border since September 2024. On 20 December, Sri Lankan authorities rescued 102 Rohingyas from a fishing trawler off the northern coast, underscoring the growing impact of this unrest, even on distant countries. These incidents highlight the need for Bangladesh to implement a different approach in its relationship with Myanmar, as escalating tensions continue to have far-reaching regional implications.
In response to these growing tensions, the new Bangladeshi government has signalled a shift towards a more inclusive and multilateral approach, emphasising diplomatic dialogue as a key component of its strategy in dealing with Myanmar. At the 79th UN General Assembly, Yunus addressed the repatriation of refugees to Myanmar. While maintaining that Bangladesh remains committed to supporting the Rohingyas, he also emphasised longer-term sustainable solutions must involve repatriation processes facilitated by international cooperation. This marks a departure from the previous administration’s sole focus on bilateral deals, with Yunus suggesting a greater focus on involving international stakeholders to ensure broader diplomatic ties with Myanmar.
As Bangladesh continues to manage these complexities through diplomatic efforts, it increasingly looks westward for assistance, particularly from the United States (US). The US has been one of the most influential international stakeholders in the crisis, giving nearly US$199 million in additional humanitarian aid to Rohingya refugees and host communities in Bangladesh. However, the return of Donald Trump’s presidency could significantly alter the dynamics of American involvement in the crisis. Trump’s previous tenure was marked by a hard stance on immigration and refugees, including a reduction in refugee admissions and a diminished engagement with regional diplomatic efforts. Given his “America First” approach, which prioritised domestic concerns over international humanitarian responsibilities, a second Trump administration could lead to a sharp decline in US funding for refugee relief and diplomatic aid to Bangladesh. This would directly challenge the new government’s multilateral approach to managing the crisis, highlighting the delicate balance Yunus would need to strike—pushing for greater accountability from Myanmar while ensuring a more collaborative effort to safeguard the rights of the Rohingyas.
As Bangladesh continues to manage these complexities through diplomatic efforts, it increasingly looks westward for assistance, particularly from the United States (US).
Given these shifting dynamics, the Dhaka administration's ability to balance competing interests will be crucial in shaping Bangladesh's future policies towards the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh is under increasing domestic pressure to reconsider its open-door policy, with the strain of hosting over a million refugees becoming a growing political issue. Yunus’s advocacy for a multilateral approach could provide a framework with both government and non-state actors, helping create pathways for safe repatriation while ensuring that returning refugees are not subjected to further persecution. The involvement of the global community could help pressure Myanmar on Rohingya repatriation, and prevent incitement against the armed military groups. In this context, the role of international organisations and regional diplomacy remains critical; however, they are highly constrained by shifting political currents, both within Bangladesh and globally. As global attention is increasingly consumed by conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza crisis, the Rohingya refugee crisis risks being overlooked—yet it remains a pressing issue that demands urgent resolution.
Mallaika Thapar is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation
Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is an Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programmes at the Observer Research Foundation
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Mallaika Thapar is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation ...
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Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy is an Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme’s Neighbourhood Studies Initiative. He focuses on strategic and security-related developments in the South Asian ...
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