Amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty, the 4th IAFS offers a timely opportunity to institutionalise strategic convergence and reinforce India-Africa leadership within the Global South
The ongoing war in Iran and the ensuing crisis in the Persian Gulf carry significant implications for the Global South. Decisions taken by a small group of major powers continue to produce systemic consequences for the wider international community — a stark reminder of the structural vulnerabilities embedded in the existing world order. Yet, this chaos can also represent an opportunity to reframe the structure of global governance. This is precisely why the need to organise the long-delayed 4th India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) is compelling.
Reviving the summit is more than routine diplomacy. At a time when India and Africa must jointly articulate a new form of leadership, the 4th IAFS would mark an essential first step towards that objective.
The last Summit took place in 2015 in New Delhi. Since then, the world has undergone some profound changes. Events such as the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have exposed deep vulnerabilities in supply chains and energy security. Meanwhile, multilateral institutions and the rules-based order have witnessed a sharp decline in credibility. In this context, reviving the summit is more than routine diplomacy. At a time when India and Africa must jointly articulate a new form of leadership, the 4th IAFS would mark an essential first step towards that objective.
For India, the crisis in Iran exposes its longstanding weakness. India is heavily dependent on West Asia, a perennially volatile region, for its essential energy supplies. Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow yet vital chokepoint that lies dangerously close to the conflict zone. Nearly half of India’s crude oil imports and nearly 70 percent of its LNG transit through this narrow passage. Any disruption here would quickly translate into higher energy prices, inflationary pressures, and, therefore, additional pressure on public finances.
Notably, India's vulnerability extends beyond energy. The region is also key for fertilisers, industrial inputs, and remittances. In 2025, India imported fertilisers worth US$3.7 billion from West Asia. Reduced fertiliser availability would disrupt agricultural productivity, pushing up food prices and impacting India's food security. Further, about 10 million Indians live and work across Gulf countries, contributing 38 percent of India's total remittances, supporting millions of families at home and helping finance a large portion of India's external accounts.
With African producers providing alternative sources of crude oil and natural gas, the continent presents India with a viable pathway to diversify its energy basket. As these supply routes are less dependent on narrow chokepoints such as Hormuz, they offer India greater logistical flexibility.
Last but not least, the crisis also jeopardises India’s investment in Chabahar Port. The project was conceived as a cornerstone of India's regional connectivity strategy and a vital corridor to connect with landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. It has long faced headwinds from US sanctions. Even so, India has used the corridor to deliver humanitarian aid, alongside investments in the Shahid Beheshti terminal. Continued instability now threatens to stall these efforts, leaving a key strategic project in limbo.
For Africa, the situation is equally severe. Economies dependent on imported energy will be hit the hardest. As fuel prices rise, the cost of food, transportation, and other essential services also increases, making daily life more difficult. Currency depreciation adds another layer of strain by increasing the burden of servicing dollar-denominated debt. For many African governments, still recovering from the twin shocks of the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, this will necessitate difficult budgetary choices. While higher oil prices may generate additional revenues for oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Gabon, and Libya, infrastructure and logistical constraints limit their ability to rapidly scale up production.
While every crisis brings disruption, it also creates opportunity. This cluster of challenges provides a compelling rationale for deeper India–Africa convergence, rooted in their complementarity. With African producers providing alternative sources of crude oil and natural gas, the continent presents India with a viable pathway to diversify its energy basket. As these supply routes are less dependent on narrow chokepoints such as Hormuz, they offer India greater logistical flexibility.
Africa’s geographic position offers logistical advantages. Maritime routes connecting India and Africa remain relatively free and open. In the event of disruptions in the Red Sea, India can reroute trade via the Cape of Good Hope. Although this option entails higher costs, it would help ensure continuity of trade flows. Moreover, African ports and markets can serve as dependable nodes in global supply chains, helping India maintain its export momentum.
North African countries are major producers of phosphates and nitrogen-based fertilisers. Stronger partnerships in this sector would reduce India’s vulnerability to external shocks while supporting industrial growth in Africa.
Another critical area of cooperation is agriculture. North African countries are major producers of phosphates and nitrogen-based fertilisers. Stronger partnerships in this sector would reduce India’s vulnerability to external shocks while supporting industrial growth in Africa.
Although an India–Africa Forum Summit has not been held in recent years, India has continued to engage the Global South through initiatives such as the Voice of the Global South Summit (VOGSS). African participation in VOGSS has been strong, reflecting shared concerns and aspirations. However, as a virtual platform focused broadly on the Global South, VOGSS lacks a dedicated Africa-specific agenda. Given Africa’s scale and diversity, India must ensure a consistent and tailored institutional framework to deepen its engagement with the continent.
This is where the India–Africa Forum Summit becomes essential. Since its inception in 2008, it has functioned as the primary platform for advancing political and economic cooperation. The fact that it has not been held since 2015 reflects a clear loss of momentum at a time when deeper and more sustained engagement has become imperative. Several factors make this the opportune moment to convene the 4th IAFS.
First, the international order is undergoing rapid realignment. Traditional centres of power are becoming increasingly inward-looking, while multilateral institutions are losing credibility and relevance. At a time when new coalitions and leadership configurations are needed, India and Africa can play a meaningful role.
The IAFS provides a structured platform to translate political intent into actionable frameworks. Episodic diplomacy is unlikely to suffice in a world shaped by systemic risks.
Second, there is a strong economic rationale for enhanced India–Africa cooperation. The West Asian crisis has underscored the risks inherent in concentrated supply chains. India stands to benefit from deeper engagement with Africa, particularly through supply chain diversification. In return, African countries can gain greater access to Indian markets, technology, and investment.
Third, there is growing political momentum. India’s recent diplomatic engagements, including its push to secure permanent membership for the African Union in the G20 during its presidency, have reinforced its credentials as a voice of the Global South. As Africa increasingly asserts itself on the global stage, the convergence of these trajectories creates a favourable context for a high-level summit.
Finally, there is a need for consistency. The IAFS provides a structured platform to translate political intent into actionable frameworks. Episodic diplomacy is unlikely to suffice in a world shaped by systemic risks.
The convergence of crises — from West Asia to Gaza, alongside the steady erosion of multilateralism — has created a rare opportunity for the Global South to move from the margins to the centre of global decision-making. Amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty, convening a summit at this juncture would send a powerful signal that India and Africa are prepared to assume a greater leadership role. In a volatile world, such a signal would resonate well beyond the two regions.
India must take cognisance of the urgency of convening the India–Africa Forum Summit. Further delays risk eroding hard-earned momentum and weakening India’s image as a consistent and reliable partner, an outcome it can ill afford.
For India, this is an opportunity to demonstrate that its commitment to the Global South is not merely rhetorical. For Africa, it offers the prospect of partnering with a country that combines capacity with credibility. Most importantly, it would signify not merely the revival of a summit but the beginning of a more purposeful and resilient partnership. India must take cognisance of the urgency of convening the India–Africa Forum Summit. Further delays risk eroding hard-earned momentum and weakening India’s image as a consistent and reliable partner, an outcome it can ill afford.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Dr. Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), where he works on geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in the changing ...
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