The RSP’s landslide victory reflects public exhaustion with entrenched political elites and opens a decisive yet uncertain chapter in Nepal’s democratic and developmental trajectory
The much-awaited snap parliamentary elections in Nepal have now delivered a decisive result, with the bell symbol of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) sweeping the electoral mandate and inflicting an embarrassing defeat on Nepal’s old vanguards of power. The party has won 125 seats through direct voting under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system and 58 seats under the proportional representation system at the time of writing, securing approximately 52 percent of the vote share and bringing it close to a two-thirds majority in the 275-member House of Representatives. This resounding mandate, in a country long trapped in coalition imbroglio and infested with quid pro quo alliances, is being perceived as a welcome change.
The much-awaited snap parliamentary elections in Nepal have now delivered a decisive result, with the bell symbol of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) sweeping the electoral mandate and inflicting an embarrassing defeat on Nepal’s old vanguards of power.
Compared to the party’s performance in the last general election in 2022, which was also its first since its formation that same year, the RSP’s victory in this election is symptomatic of the electorate’s saturation with the status quo. In 2022, the RSP won 20 seats, a number considered significant at the time given the entrenched hold of established parties over Nepal’s political reins and the party’s novelty in the electoral arena. This year, building on the anti-incumbency sentiment in the aftermath of the Generation Z protests and the growing following of former Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah — who is now poised to assume the prime ministership — the RSP has significantly transformed its electoral fortunes. The party has come close to securing a two-thirds majority, a feat not seen since the country’s first democratic elections in 1959. Its success is spread across provinces, with the party winning the most seats in six provinces, except Karnali, where the Nepali Congress (NC) won more seats. The party secured 31 of the 33 seats in Bagmati Province, the largest province in terms of seat share in the country.
Seat Share of Major Political Parties
| Party | 2026 elections (Direct) | 2026 elections (Proportional) | Total |
| RSP | 125 | 58 | 183 |
| NC | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| CPN-UML | 9 | 16 | 25 |
| NCP | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| SSP | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| RPP | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Independent | 1 | - | 1 |
Source: Compiled from the Data available on The Kathmandu Post’s Election Portal
Trailing far behind the RSP is the NC with 18 seats, with its prime ministerial candidate, Gagan Thapa, losing from the Sarlahi-4 constituency to the RSP’s Amaresh Kumar Singh by nearly 12,000 votes. This was followed by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) {CPN (UML)} and the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), which won 9 and 8 seats respectively. The pro-monarchy Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) won only one seat, down from seven in the previous election, while the Shram Sanskriti Party (SSP) secured three seats. The number of independent victories also declined compared to the previous election, falling from five in 2022 to one in 2026, while several new political forces, such as the Ujyaalo Nepal Party (UNP), failed to win any seats. Under the proportional representation vote count, the RSP received approximately 5million votes, followed by the NC with 1.7 million votes, the UML with 1.3 million, and the NCP with 732,992 votes. The RPP and the Shram Sanskriti Party also secured roughly 300,000 votes each.
Province-Wise Seat Share through FPTP
Source: Data secured from The Kathmandu Post’s Election Portal
Of the three political leaders who have shaped the trajectory of Nepal’s politics over the last six decades — namely K.P. Sharma Oli of the CPN-UML, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) [CPN (MC)], who contested this election under the NCP banner — only the latter managed to retain his seat, defeating both the CPN-UML and NC candidates in the Rukum East-1 constituency. In Jhapa-5, Oli’s home constituency, Balen Shah emerged victorious with a margin of nearly 50,000 votes, marking a historic pivot in the constituency’s political trajectory. Many Madhesh-based parties were decisively defeated, with several top leaders failing to secure seats, raising concerns that smaller parties may no longer qualify for national party status due to a decline in their vote share.
On 8 March, the commission mandated to investigate the events of 8 and 9 September, and to identify and punish those responsible for the deaths and arson that followed the Gen Z protests, submitted its report to the interim prime minister. The successful conduct of the elections and the submission of the commission’s report together signify a sense of closure for a country that has remained on edge since September 2025.
Many analyses have rightly described the outcome as a generational shift in Nepal’s politics — a clarion call for change materialising into a strong electoral mandate for a single party.
In the aftermath of then Prime Minister Oli’s resignation, following the state’s violent crackdown that fatally killed protesters, apprehensions about Nepal veering towards instability were widespread. However, developments since then reflect the maturity of the country’s institutions and the sense of responsibility demonstrated by the stakeholders involved. The formation of an interim government, its efforts to address public grievances in the aftermath of the protests, the decision of all major political parties to contest the elections — despite occasional dissenting statements from their leaders during the interim period — and their acceptance of the election results collectively reflect a shared desire for stability and change.
Many analyses have rightly described the outcome as a generational shift in Nepal’s politics — a clarion call for change materialising into a strong electoral mandate for a single party. The results also brought about a significant increase in the proportion of younger candidates, with the share of winning candidates under the age of 40 reaching approximately 38 percent, compared to 11 percent in the previous election. This change was spearheaded by the RSP, which accounted for 52 of the 61 winning candidates in this category. The number of elected candidates in the 41-50 age group also increased, with 41 of the 55 winners in this bracket from the RSP based on results from 159 seats.
The party’s citizen contract, released before its official manifesto, focused on five themes — good governance; the expansion of the middle class; the creation of employment opportunities within the country, alongside raising per capita income to US$3,000 and achieving a growth rate of 7 percent; connectivity development; and engagement with the diaspora. Its initial popularity ahead of the 2022 elections stemmed from its focus on combating corruption, an issue it highlighted in its manifesto this year as well. However, while its agenda is strong and ambitious, there are still concerns about its feasibility.
While the policy priorities outlined in the RSP’s manifesto were not starkly different from those of its competitors, its success in securing an overwhelming vote share was driven by public fatigue with the old leadership.
For citizens in Nepal, the vote was as much an indictment of the older parties’ failure to deliver on their promises as it was an expression of expectations surrounding the Balen Shah- and Rabi Lamichhane-led RSP’s ability to usher in change. While the policy priorities outlined in the RSP’s manifesto were not starkly different from those of its competitors, its success in securing an overwhelming vote share was driven by public fatigue with the old leadership. For the RSP, this mandate comes with significant responsibility, as its actions in the short term will signal the direction it intends to take in the future. There will be expectations for the government to act on the commission’s recommendations, a move likely to trigger political furore. For the older parties, the results may compel a serious rethink of their approach to elections and politics in general. Yet many challenges remain, and how the incoming government addresses them will determine whether the country can chart a different course and finally see a prime minister complete a full term in office.
While a two-thirds majority gives the party considerable leeway to implement its policy priorities, it currently has no representation in the upper house of parliament, where the NC retains a majority. The RSP will also have to carefully manage internal party dynamics, making it imperative for its two senior leaders to work together to keep the government stable. Party chair Rabi Lamichhane has not been free of controversy, including charges related to diverting funds from cooperatives, the Supreme Court’s decision to remove him from office in 2023 because of his failure to reapply for Nepali citizenship after giving up his US citizenship, and his recent escape from and return to prison during the protests that erupted across the country. Shah, too, has faced criticism for some policy decisions taken during his tenure as Kathmandu mayor and his apparent reluctance to engage one-on-one with the media.
The RSP chair’s focus on ‘development diplomacy’ in his response to the Indian PM’s tweet indicates the direction in which the party intends to steer bilateral relations.
On 9 March, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first foreign leader to have a telephone conversation with Rabi Lamichhane and Balendra Shah. Since the political developments that unfolded overnight in September 2025, New Delhi has been prompt in conveying its commitment to Nepal’s peace and stability, as well as its willingness to engage with whichever new administration assumes power. India was also the first country to hold a telephonic conversation with the interim prime minister and provided logistical assistance for the successful conduct of the elections. The RSP chair’s focus on ‘development diplomacy’ in his response to the Indian PM’s tweet indicates the direction in which the party intends to steer bilateral relations.
The extent to which the new political dispensation will seek to recalibrate Kathmandu’s balancing diplomacy between its two key neighbours, India and China, will become clear only in the coming weeks and months. The change of guard, coupled with limited clarity on how the ruling party intends to govern, does leave a lot open to speculation. The absence of the pressures intrinsic to coalition governments carries both advantages and risks within a democratic setup. Only time will tell how the RSP chooses to govern without such constraints.
Shivam Shekhawat is a Junior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Shivam Shekhawat is a Junior Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her research focuses primarily on India’s neighbourhood- particularly tracking the security, political and economic ...
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