With the 1.5°C goal deadline fast approaching, creating an enforcement and accountability framework to reduce emissions and limit the increase in global temperatures is imperative
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International net-zero economy efforts prodigiously aim to balance “anthropogenic” or human-related emissions—which reached an all-time high in 2023 at 37.4 billion tonnes—under Article 4 of the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement, by 2050. The Paris Agreement aims to meet long-term goals of controlling global temperatures and eradicating poverty by strengthening the global response to climate change, gradually decreasing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and removing their sources. It mentions several adaptation and mitigation measures encompassing carbon legislation, capacity-building initiatives, and conserving GHG sinks, such as forests, through sustainable development and financing efforts.
The “global response” urged by the agreement strives to ensure the Earth’s average temperature increase is limited to well below 2°C and remains closer to 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels to keep global warming under control. It also prescribes the ‘common but differentiated and respective capabilities’ principle, recognising the unique national circumstances and the capabilities of countries at different levels of development in driving climate action. It urges the active participation of signatory nations in the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) that involve assessment measures such as “global stocktakes” or methods to track treaty compliance through nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
The COP28 hosted by the United Arab Emirates in December 2023 marked the completion of the first global stocktake, initiated in COP26 in 2021. The Global Stocktake (GST) is an inventory tool prescribed by Article 14 of the Paris Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving its long-term goals. It follows the same temporal evaluation pattern followed by the NDCs, with the next assessment scheduled in 2028. They function as an “ambition mechanism” to inspire more audacious and robust national climate action plans.
The COP28 hosted by the United Arab Emirates in December 2023 marked the completion of the first global stocktake, initiated in COP26 in 2021.
The GST reports provide nations with updated suggestions on the necessary actions to respond to recent circumstances and developments. Global stocktakes create a forum of enhanced transparency, allowing countries to measure their progress, gain access to support, and understand and improve their position relative to other nations facing similar challenges. Identifying good practices and opportunities helps governments create feasible and improved NDCs and long-term low-emission development strategies (LE-LEDS) as a tangible global response to address the gaps in climate action.
The COP28 and GST’s primary outcome Report (CMA.5) revealed insufficient progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. Evaluating mitigation mechanisms, it noted “significant concern” on GHG emission trajectories and its consequent impact on “narrowing the window for raising ambition”. The pressing nature of climate change demands immediate attention, international consensus, and ubiquitous but equitable international action, as global emissions demonstrated an increase of 1.4 percent or an equivalent of 730 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2022. Though some of the biggest GHG emitters, such as the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), have attained their peak and are now on the decline, 2023 recorded the highest amount of emissions, with the global temperature reaching 1.45 ± 0.12 °C higher than pre-industrial levels.
Though the CMA.5 recognises the position of the developing and the least developed nations, it provides generalised instructions to all nations party to the global stocktake. The report thus exposes the Paris Agreement’s most prominent failure to translate its equitable intentions into practical directives. The report calls on parties to undertake mitigation measures such as “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power” and “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. Still, it fails to account for the current, irreplaceable role of non-renewable energy sources in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), which poses the biggest challenge to their renewable energy transition. Due to their dependence on coal, the growth of renewable energy capacities of these countries alone cannot translate into a reduction in the use of conventional, fossil-fuel-based energy sources.
Though the CMA.5 recognises the position of the developing and the least developed nations, it provides generalised instructions to all nations party to the global stocktake.
For example, India’s electricity sector relies heavily on coal, reporting a 700 percent growth in the last four decades. Its coal dependence is expected to rise further despite the increasing contribution from renewable energy sources. China has also aggressively increased its renewable energy capacity. However, this trend was consistent with its increased investment in coal plants, accounting for two-thirds of the global coal plants and 60 percent of the world’s coal use. Despite President Xi’s commitment to halting all foreign coal-powered projects, China’s domestic use has not waned.
The report highlights the “deep, rapid and sustained reductions” required and proposes figures of 43 percent and 60 percent reductions in GHG emissions by 2030 and 2035 compared to 2019, respectively. Still, it ignores the challenges faced by developing countries. Yet again, these reduction goals favour only the developed nations that can afford the intensive climate financing required to maintain and further accelerate the pace of transition. India’s conditional climate goals aim to reduce its emissions by 45 percent compared to 2005.
Despite such inconsistencies, the report makes a more positive assessment of adaptation procedures against insufficient mitigation-related progress. It acknowledges the efforts of developing countries in creating and implementing national adaptation plans and highlights the institutional efforts of the Least-Developed Countries Experts Group and Nairobi work programme to align their national development plans and utilise their domestic expenditures towards the achievement of the Paris Agreement’s adaptation goals.
Despite such inconsistencies, the report makes a more positive assessment of adaptation procedures against insufficient mitigation-related progress.
The CMA.5 provides directives pertinent to adaptive climate action and support but again fails to provide specific and differentiated goals for developing and less developed countries. It instructs countries to build climate-resilient facilities for water supply, sanitation, healthcare and education, including cultural heritage and practices, without providing any specific direction for achieving them. For instance, it gives precise mitigation directions to developed countries for transitioning from non-renewable to renewable energy through phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies or expediting the reduction of emissions from road transport by developing enabling infrastructure and rapid adoption of zero and low-emission vehicles.
While CMA.5 reiterates the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, it does not outline differentiated goals or standards for developing and less-developed countries. This anomaly allows many emerging economies to submit their NDCs, typically approved by the UNFCCC, but with poor scrutiny, monitoring, and high levels of non-compliance. If a party fails to meet its NDC, the only formal consequence it faces is a meeting with a global committee of neutral researchers. The dire vacuum in climate financing for adaptation and mitigation, as pointed out by 46 percent of Parties who submitted NDCs, further accentuates such enforcement weaknesses.
CMA.5’s generalised, vague, and skewed directives fail to sufficiently address the concerns of developing economies and leave room for poor global stocktake and NDC non-compliance. With the 1.5°C goal deadline fast approaching, creating an enforcement and accountability framework to reduce emissions, limit the increase in global temperatures and thus, keep climate change under control is imperative.
Ananya Kalantri is an intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
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