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Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi starts strong abroad, but fragile party alliances and domestic pressures raise questions about how long her political honeymoon will hold.
On 21 October 2025, Sanae Takaichi took office as Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister, the first woman to lead the government in the country’s 140-year constitutional history. She has shattered the long-standing glass ceiling in Japan’s male-dominated political landscape through a combination of perseverance and circumstance. While she has begun her tenure on a high note and enjoys a political and diplomatic honeymoon, the road ahead appears uncertain and potentially bumpy, particularly on the domestic front.
Following the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba, who stepped down just a year into his tenure, Takaichi secured the party leadership after two previous unsuccessful attempts in a tightly contested internal election, which went to a runoff stage.
In the past, when the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held a majority in the lower house of Japan’s National Diet, either independently or in coalition with its long-time political partner, Komeito, the party leader was almost automatically endorsed as prime minister. This was, however, not the case this time, as the LDP had lost its majority in both houses in parliamentary elections during the Ishiba administration.
Takaichi secured the party leadership after two previous unsuccessful attempts in a tightly contested internal election, which went to a runoff stage.
To make matters worse, Komeito ended its 26-year-old partnership with the LDP, citing concerns over Takaichi’s strong conservative and nationalist leanings, as well as apprehensions that its own influence in a Takaichi-led government and policy decisions would diminish. As a party that holds a more moderate stance on foreign policy, particularly regarding defence spending and relations with China, Komeito’s withdrawal placed Takaichi in a precarious and unprecedented political situation.
After a flurry of negotiations with opposition parties, Takaichi found a like-minded partner in the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) to support her government from outside of the cabinet. Although the LDP and Ishin collectively fell short of an outright majority, with the backing of some other parliamentarians, Takaichi succeeded in forming a government, thereby making history.
Since taking office, she has enjoyed an extraordinarily high popularity in various opinion polls, levels not seen in recent years for her predecessors. One survey indicated a support rate of 74 percent, which is more than 25 percentage points higher than the initial popularity of PM Ishiba in October 2024. According to Nikkei Asia, this represents ‘one of the highest ratings for any new cabinet since 2002.’ Another national newspaper, Mainichi Shimbun, noted that her approval ratings were the ‘seventh highest in history’. The initial surge in support for Takaichi reflects voters’ trust in her government and approval of her policy stance on the economy, as well as the measures she has proposed to address inflation, social security, and concerns about foreigners and Japan’s immigration policy.
While observers and analysts await her performance on domestic policy fronts, one of the most remarkable early successes has been Takaichi’s conduct of diplomacy within the first ten days of taking office. A new head of government will rarely have such a packed diplomatic schedule as did Takaichi soon after appointment as prime minister. Despite her lack of experience in foreign affairs, defence, and diplomacy more broadly, Takaichi’s diplomatic debut was widely regarded as a success. Four days after taking office, Takaichi’s first diplomatic port of call was Malaysia, where she attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and reaffirmed Japan’s unwavering commitment to the region. During her one-day visit to Malaysia, she also held bilateral meetings with the leaders of Australia and the Philippines (https://www.mofa.go.jp/s_sa/sea2/ph/pageite_000001_01325.html), two countries with which Japan maintains close security and defence ties. She hurriedly returned to Tokyo after just one day at the summit to host the United States (US) President Donald Trump in Tokyo.
After a flurry of negotiations with opposition parties, Takaichi found a like-minded partner in the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) to support her government from outside of the cabinet.
The usual pattern is for a newly appointed Japanese prime minister to travel to Washington to meet the US president. However, this time, it was the president who visited the newly inaugurated prime minister in Tokyo, a meeting that had been scheduled before she was elected. The meeting, by all accounts, was a great success. The two leaders described the meeting as marking a ‘new golden age for the Japan–U.S. alliance.’ Japan’s commitment to invest US$550 billion in key sectors of the US economy, pledged under the Ishiba administration, was reaffirmed, with potential investment areas and American partner companies identified in a document made public. Moreover, during their joint visit to the US Naval Base in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Takaichi and Trump addressed each other by their first names, Sanae and Donald, signalling a personal rapport established between the two.
Following her meeting with President Trump, Takaichi attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in South Korea, where she held tête-à-têtes with the South Korean President, Lee Jae-myung and, notably, with China’s President Xi Jinping. Both countries have long-standing territorial and historical disputes with Japan and were particularly wary of Takaichi’s nationalist stance on historical issues and her visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where millions of Japan’s war dead are enshrined. Visits by the Japanese prime minister to the shrine are consistently opposed and criticised in both Seoul and Beijing, which regard it as a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression against its neighbours.
The bilateral meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung was described as ‘warm and meaningful’, with both leaders agreeing to actively promote ‘shuttle diplomacy’, and build ‘future-oriented ties’.
A meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was another highlight of Takaichi’s diplomatic engagements. According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘The two leaders affirmed the importance of dialogue between themselves and of multilayered communication across a wide range of fields between Japan and China.’ Xi also expressed his willingness to maintain communication with Takaichi and to work together to advance bilateral relations ‘on the right track.’
Following her meeting with President Trump, Takaichi attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit in South Korea, where she held tête-à-têtes with the South Korean President, Lee Jae-myung and, notably, with China’s President Xi Jinping.
Notably, PM Takaichi did not hesitate to raise Japan’s serious concerns over China’s escalating military activities in the East China Sea, including around the Senkaku Islands. She urged the Chinese side to address these issues. Takaichi also raised concerns over the weaponisation of trade and the attacks and detention of Japanese nationals in China.
Although a face-to-face meeting with India’s PM Narendra Modi has yet to take place, PM Takaichi, in a telephone conversation with Modi, emphasised that the two countries share fundamental values and strategic interests. She affirmed Japan’s intention to continue working with India towards realising a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ and strengthening the Quad framework, comprising Japan, Australia, India, and the US. Referring to the ‘Japan-India Joint Vision for the Next Decade’ announced during PM Modi's visit to Japan in August, Takaichi stated that Japan would further deepen collaboration with India across a wide range of areas, including security, economy, investment, innovation, and people-to-people exchanges. She expressed her desire to open a new golden chapter in the ‘Japan-India Special Strategic and Global Partnership.’ It appears that the stars are currently aligned in Takaichi’s favour, both in the domestic and foreign policy arenas, a promising start for the new prime minister. The road ahead, however, is unlikely to be smooth. Given Takaichi’s commitment to substantially increasing defence spending and strengthening security ties with the US alongside her nationalist and hawkish views on history, strategic tensions between Japan and China are likely to deepen.
While she may navigate foreign policy through a combination of pragmatism and engagement, tempered by firmness on issues of national interest, it is her approach to domestic challenges that will ultimately determine her political longevity and leadership success.
Voters expect the Takaichi administration to address key domestic challenges, including the economy, inflation, low wages, taxation, social security, and issues related to the presence of foreigners in Japan. As a single-party minority government reliant on the support of an opposition party outside the cabinet, the administration will need to negotiate with other opposition and independent members to pass legislation in both houses of the National Diet.
Given Takaichi’s commitment to substantially increasing defence spending and strengthening security ties with the US alongside her nationalist and hawkish views on history, strategic tensions between Japan and China are likely to deepen.
The LDP’s political partner, Ishin, while aligned in political orientations with the LDP, has its own political and policy priorities that it seeks to advance in exchange for supporting the LDP. As an Osaka-based party, Ishin aims to position Osaka, historically in competition with Tokyo, as Japan’s ‘second capital,’ capable of supporting Tokyo in the event of a major natural disaster affecting the national capital. The party also advocates for reducing the number of parliamentarians and lowering tax burdens to ease the cost of living.
Although a general election is not scheduled until 2028, Takaichi may seek an opportune moment to call a snap election if she delivers satisfactory policy outcomes and maintains strong approval ratings in the coming months. Whether she can provide Japan with political stability much like her mentor, Shinzo Abe or will become another ‘revolving-door’ prime minister, like many of her predecessors, remains a key question for analysts and observers of Japanese politics.
Purnendra Jain is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Purnendra Jain is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide. Recipient of the Japanese Emperors Order of the Rising ...
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