Surging food prices have deepened global hunger, pushing healthy diets out of reach and exposing stark inequalities across regions.
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In the shadow of a global pandemic that had already strained economies and supply chains, the world entered 2021 facing an insidious threat of surging food prices. Globally, median food inflation increased from a modest 2.3 percent in December 2020 to a peak of 13.6 percent in early 2023, outpacing overall inflation by significant margins.
The roots of the 2021–2023 food price inflation stemmed from a range of factors, including the lingering effects of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and climate-induced supply shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains in 2020 and continued into 2021, exacerbating issues such as lockdowns, labour shortages, and logistical bottlenecks. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 intensified the crisis, since both nations stand as major exporters of wheat, sunflower oil and fertilisers. This conflict drove up energy and commodity prices, with global food commodity indices spiking by over 20 percent. Extreme weather events, such as droughts in Europe and floods in Asia, have significantly reduced harvests, along with rising energy costs, as well as transportation and production expenses.
In low-income countries, inflation hit a staggering 30% by mid-2023, correlating with a 3.5% increase in moderate or severe food insecurity and a 1.8% jump in severe cases.
In low-income countries, the situation spelt out a dire tale, with inflation hitting a staggering 30 percent by mid-2023, thus prolonging the crisis. A 10 percent rise in food prices in these countries correlated with a 3.5 percent increase in moderate or severe food insecurity and a 1.8 percent jump in severe cases, amplifying vulnerabilities in regions already grappling with structural inequalities. Loose monetary policies and fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic also boosted demand, creating inflationary pressures on both supply and demand sides. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), these exogenous shocks led to food prices rising more than 35 percent since the 2019 pre-pandemic era.
In 2021, the average daily cost of a healthy diet per person globally was US$3.68. However, with the international extreme poverty line set at just US$2.15, even those above the poverty line struggled.. This surge impacted around 30 percent of the world's population, leaving them unable to afford a healthy diet—with Africa bearing the brunt, as about 1 billion people there were worst hit. The disparity between healthy and unhealthy food options has further widened the chasm. While the cost of a healthy diet was on the rise, ultra-processed foods,, such as sugary snacks, sodas, and read-to-eat meals, got cheaper by 47 percent compared to unprocessed or minimally processed foods. This affordability gap steered billions toward diets high in calorific value but low in nutrients, fueling a hidden hunger. Globally, child wasting, which refers to a form of acute malnutrition defined by a child being too thin for their height, indicating recent, rapid weight loss due to inadequate food intake or illness, stood at 6.6 percent by 2024, down from 7.4 percent in 2012. However, the inflation spike threatened to reverse gains. Furthermore, the data representing the dietary diversity within children and women are alarming, with only 1/3rd of children and 2/3rd of women (15–49 years) consuming food from diverse food groups.
The cost of a healthy diet averaged $3.68 globally in 2021, yet the international extreme poverty line stood at just $2.15, leaving even those above poverty struggling.
The World Bank's Food Security Update noted that in West and Central Africa, food inflation increased to over 45 percent, leading to severe food insecurity. In the United States (US), food prices rose to 5.8 percent in 2023 alone, influenced by easing supply chain and persistent wholesale pressures. A recent study links 16 instances of extreme weather that impact food production and yield to price hikes. Considering India’s numbers, food inflation has averaged around 6 percent from 2012 to 2025, with the lowest figure projected at 1.76 percent in July 2025. The drop in food inflation is attributed to factors such as favourable base effects and a decrease in food prices, particularly in vegetables, pulses, cereals, and dairy products. A regression analysis of food inflation in India from 2000 to 2022 indicates a strong correlation between food production, exchange rates, and the consumer price index. There is a growing trend toward a more affordable healthy diet in many low- and middle-income countries, except India (Figure mentioned below). In India, the consumption of ultra-processed foods has surged from US$0.9 billion in 2006 to US$37.9 billion in 2019. This increase has worsened nutritional challenges, as cheaper alternatives are displacing healthier options amid price volatility. The COVID-19 growth rate further influenced price rise across food categories in 167 markets in India, leading to disruptions. Billions continued to view healthy diets as a luxury, averaging US$4.46 per person per day in 2024. The highest figures for an average healthy diet were registered across Latin America and the Caribbean (US$5.16), followed by Asia and Africa (US$4.43 and US$4.41, respectively), whereas the Oceania region recorded the lowest amount at US$3.86.
Source: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025
Efforts such as the Food Prices for Nutrition project aimed to assess the costs of healthy diets and influence policies in various countries. For instance, in Nigeria, the project led to the publication of monthly bulletins on the costs of maintaining a healthy diet, which played a role in wage increases and trade reforms in 2024. In India, similar initiatives—such as allowing duty-free imports of pulses, implementing stock limits to prevent hoarding, and providing subsidised sales—yielded moderate results. By 2023, food subsidies had increased to 1 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Ultra-processed foods became 47 percent cheaper than unprocessed or minimally processed foods, steering billions toward diets heavy in calories but light on nutrients.
The 2021- 2023 food price inflation reshaped global and local landscapes, turning abundance into scarcity for many. According to the Global Risk Report 2024, the need of the hour is to integrate global risk mitigation with domestic reforms, including boosting digital infrastructure and workforce skilling to enhance productivity to prevent future surges. As the FAO advocates, a coordinated policy response to food price inflation and investment in agrifoods is essential to ensure no one faces shrinking plates amid surging costs.
Shoba Suri is a Senior Fellow with the Health Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Dr. Shoba Suri is a Senior Fellow with ORFs Health Initiative. Shoba is a nutritionist with experience in community and clinical research. She has worked on nutrition, ...
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