Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on May 05, 2018
The trilateral meeting will take place on 9 May 2018. It assumes considerable significance for several reasons.
The significance of upcoming Japan⎯China⎯South Korea trilateral

The Japan⎯China⎯South Korea trilateral forum was devised in 1998 when the three countries started meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN+3 to discuss issues falling within the northeast Asian region. They continued to follow this process until 2008 when they decided to meet independently of the ASEAN gathering. Such independent trilateral meetings were held until 2012. Strained relations between the three countries, however, stood in the way of holding the meetings until 2015 when the three leaders met in Seoul. No meetings were possible during the years 2016, and 2017 due to political turmoil and instability in South Korea.


Strained relations between the three countries, however, stood in the way of holding the meetings until 2015 when the three leaders met in Seoul.


In this sense, the upcoming trilateral meeting on 9 May 2018 assumes considerable significance for several reasons.

First, the meeting is taking place after a gap of more than two years. Second, it occurs in the midst of unprecedented political and strategic developments caused by the unfolding thaw in the relations between South and North Korea and between the US and North Korea. Third, and perhaps more significantly, the meeting will put the Japanese Prime minister Shinzo Abe face to face with South Korean President Moon Jae⎯in and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. For Abe who has felt somewhat sidelined in the whole flurry of diplomatic activities concerning the prospects of peace and denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula, the trilateral provides an opportunity for Japan to regain some diplomatic clout. Some analysts would even go to the extent of considering it as a “face⎯saving” event. Fourth, the gathering could also boost the position of Abe at home where latest opinion polls have shown his popularity plummeting due to his government’s involvement in certain cases of political favouritism.

The trilateral will definitely provide a great opportunity for Japan to improve its relations with both South Korea and China. As for President Moon, it will be his first official visit to Japan after assuming the office of the Presidency. His visit could not have come under more propitious circumstances as the bilateral relations need to be revamped quickly. Though Moon and Abe have stressed the need for improving their relations, they are badly stuck on the historical issue relating to “comfort women.” The December 2015 agreement, which ensured Japan’s financial assistance to the welfare of the comfort women, is being considered by Seoul as lacking popular support. But Japan considers the agreement as “final and irrevocable.” The two leaders have to address this issue in a statesmanlike manner in order to move forward in their relations.


The trilateral will definitely provide a great opportunity for Japan to improve its relations with both South Korea and China.


Besides the bilateral issues, there is no doubt that Abe would be very keen to be briefed by Moon on the progress of the inter⎯Korean talks regarding the prospect of peace and denuclearisation on the Peninsula. As allies, both Seoul and Tokyo worked in tandem with the US to exert “maximum Pressure” on Pyongyang for “final, complete and verifiable” denuclearisation. Moon, on his part, is reported to have taken up the case of Japan’s abduction issue with North Korean leader Kim who expressed his willingness to meet Abe. That Abe expressed his “gratitude” to Moon for taking up the abduction issue with Kim, could become a new starting point for better understanding between Japan and South Korea.

As for China, Premier Li Keqiang will participate in the trilateral meeting and it is his first official visit to Japan in eight years. Additionally, since both countries are set to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of the signing of their bilateral peace treaty, there is a certain keenness on their part to reset their ties. In one of his recent policy speeches, Abe expressed his strong desire to usher in a new era of cooperation with China. He even showed his readiness to extend support to the Belt and Road Initiative. The Japanese leader who is keen to visit Beijing believes that Li’s participation in the trilateral could facilitate it.

In April this year, Chinese Premier Li called upon both countries to create a favourable environment for high⎯level exchanges and “help bilateral relations return to the track of healthy development.”


Since China and Japan are set to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of the signing of their bilateral peace treaty, there is a certain keenness on their part to reset their ties.


This was immediately followed by the resumption of bilateral high⎯level economic dialogue In Tokyo which had met last only in 2008. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Japan on 16 April to chair the meeting of the dialogue along with his Japanese counterpart Taro Kono. Wang stressed that the changing global economic situation provides numerous opportunities for deeper Sino⎯Japanese cooperation. In reply, Kono agreed that economic cooperation is an important basis and a driving force for the bilateral relations. He added that Japan would be willing to work with China to plan and expand bilateral ties from a new perspective.

Given that both Japan and China have somewhat warmed up to each other in recent months, Li’s visit to Tokyo in the first week of May is likely to generate further goodwill between China and Japan and pave the way for the visit of President Xi Jinping.

Lastly, the three east Asian countries have many common concerns regarding the protectionist policies pursued by the Trump administration. Trump has imposed tough tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from China, Japan and India and other countries and renegotiated the US⎯South Korea trade agreement. Many fear that Trump’s protectionist policies could unleash “trade wars” on many Asian countries. The present trilateral meeting is an appropriate forum for discussing the adverse effects of US policies on the three countries.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.

Contributor

K. V. Kesavan

K. V. Kesavan

K.V. Kesavan (1938 2021) was Visiting Distinguished Fellow at ORF. He was one of the leading Indian scholars in the field of Japanese studies. Professor ...

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