The recent uprising, coupled with the Kenyan government’s authoritarian response under Ruto, has prompted the US to change its Kenya strategy
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In August 2022, William Ruto won the Kenyan election to become the fifth president of Kenya against all the odds. This marked a significant departure in Kenyan politics, a country ruled by a few prominent family dynasties. Ruto was elected based on his promise to overthrow this aristocracy of Kenyan politics. He also promised a bottom-up economic model, focusing on the poor Kenyans who toil in the informal economy by expanding job opportunities and freeing the country from “debt slavery.”
In the following months, Ruto continued gaining momentum, establishing himself as a sincere leader on the international stage. He openly criticised the way African leaders are treated at different global forums and stressed the need for equal treatment with leaders from across the world. He advocated for a new financial system to replace the Bretton Woods framework to meet Africa’s evolving aspirations.
Ruto aimed to elevate Kenya’s leadership role by advocating for African priorities in climate financing and urging international institutions to address African concerns more effectively.
He also firmly committed to regional diplomacy and strengthening ties with the United States (US). Further, Ruto aimed to elevate Kenya’s leadership role by advocating for African priorities in climate financing and urging international institutions to address African concerns more effectively. In June 2024, his government even deployed several hundred police officers to Haiti to assist the struggling Haitian police in maintaining law and order.
Initially, the US was sceptical of Ruto due to his history related to political violence, particularly after the International Criminal Court charged him with crimes against humanity related to the aftermath of the disputed 2007 election. However, with the waning US influence in the Sahel, where many African nations are increasingly leaning toward Russia and China’s growing presence across Africa, the US sought to cultivate friendly relationships. Recognising Ruto as a potential ally, the US invited him for a State visit in May 2023, making him the first Kenyan leader in over two decades to undertake a State visit. Additionally, the US government designated Kenya as its first major non-NATO ally in sub-Saharan Africa. With this rare honour, Kenya was placed in the same rank as Australia and Japan in US foreign policy.
However, the situation shifted dramatically within a few months. In July 2023, the Ruto administration announced plans to raise 4.5 trillion Kenyan shillings or approximately US$31.8 billion through new taxes. As he proposed to double the Value Added Tax (VAT) on fuel, which would lead to a massive surge in prices across the board, the move faced widespread opposition from the Kenyan public. He further announced a housing levy of 1.5 percent of a worker’s monthly salary and increased taxes on digital content creators and influencers up to 15 percent on their earnings.
The situation escalated on 25 June, when protesters stormed Kenya’s national parliament building in Nairobi, marking a violent climax in the public outcry.
This announcement sparked unrest across the country. Since 18 June, thousands of predominantly GenZ demonstrators flooded the streets to protest the controversial 2024 Finance Bill. The intensity of protests made many call this protest as a sub-Saharan ‘African Spring’. However, their demands quickly expanded to include calls for the government to address inequality, corruption, and elite politics. The situation escalated on 25 June, when protesters stormed Kenya’s national parliament building in Nairobi, marking a violent climax in the public outcry. Demonstrators burned vehicles outside the Supreme Court and set fire to the governor’s office.
Instead of discussion, Ruto’s initial reaction was to vilify the demonstrators. His government responded by restricting internet access across the country and deploying security forces to fire tear gas, use water cannons, and ultimately shoot live rounds at the protesters. Human rights organisations have since accused the security forces of engaging in extrajudicial, arbitrary arrests, and enforcing disappearances of activists.
However, he eventually succumbed to pressure, agreeing to repeal his controversial finance bill and dissolve his cabinet. Nonetheless, the Kenyan president’s responses fluctuated between accommodating the protesters by holding an online listening session and, at the same time, blaming the Opposition for his political troubles while attempting to restrict the public’s right to voice their discontent. His decision to reappoint several of the same discredited ministers just days after their dismissal did not help the case.
While the protesters demanded a credible investigation into the state’s heavy-handed response, some even called for Ruto’s resignation. In response, Ruto attempted to forge a coalition of political elites, co-opt influential individuals and groups, and intimidate organisers and participants—the very actions he previously stood against during his presidential campaign.
Human rights organisations have since accused the security forces of engaging in extrajudicial, arbitrary arrests, and enforcing disappearances of activists.
This uprising, coupled with the Kenyan government’s faltering and inconsistent authoritarian response, has prompted the US to change its Kenya strategy. Yet, as the US seeks to enhance its presence on the continent, Kenya is arguably the most essential ally Washington would need by its side. Indeed, Kenya has maintained itself as a bastion of peace in a volatile Eastern Africa characterised by internal conflicts and geopolitical rivalries. The Kenyan populace is accustomed to a mature democracy that respects freedom of expression and the rule of law. Additionally, Kenya plays a crucial diplomatic role in addressing regional conflicts and frequently contributes to international peacekeeping efforts. Thus, the partnership between the US and Kenya becomes increasingly essential.
The US now faces a dilemma: Should it continue supporting Ruto despite his increasingly erratic policies and autocratic behaviour or distance itself? Backing Ruto could send the wrong message to the Kenyan public, who may view him as pro-West and anti-Kenya. Any discontent with their leader could easily translate into resentment towards the US. Meanwhile, China, a significant player in the region, would closely monitor developments before taking any decisive action.
Kenya plays a crucial diplomatic role in addressing regional conflicts and frequently contributes to international peacekeeping efforts.
Moving forward, the US might explore offering Kenya a sovereign debt guarantee, enabling the country to access capital markets at lower interest rates. This financial support could enhance the US’s reputation and earn it some goodwill. This becomes more important as the US was accused of vaccine apartheid during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, collaborating with Kenya’s strong and resilient civil society is essential for the US to promote human rights and freedom of expression. Amid rising violence and calls for significant change, the future of these demonstrations is uncertain. However, aligning US efforts with the aspirations of young protesters could further improve America’s image among Kenyan youths.
If the US fails to restore its favourable image among young, urban Kenyans, its ability to effectively partner with other African nations may be jeopardised. The US’s path to winning over Africa appears to run through Ruto’s Kenya.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Dr. Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), where he works on geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in the changing ...
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