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Russia's role as an enabler of North Korea's nuclear ambitions risks undoing decades of work toward nuclear restraint
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In December 2024, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) and Russia signed a mutual defence treaty, representing a new level of elevation in their strategic partnership. This Treaty requires the two undersigned to provide military support in the event of an attack on one of the partners. The Treaty further provides for coordinated resistance to Western sanctions.
In 2024, South Korea's security advisor reported that Russia delivered anti-aircraft missiles to North Korea, aimed at reinforcing Pyongyang's air defence system. Additionally, Moscow has also been reported to provide economic support to DPRK through oil and other materials for their troops. Russia's support of DPRK, while engaging in arms control talks, undermines the validity of negotiations such as the New START treaty and the broader agenda of global disarmament. It challenges the integrity of arms control agreements where a principal signatory is seen to be sanctioning a proven abuser.
Russia's support of DPRK, while engaging in arms control talks, undermines the validity of negotiations such as the New START treaty and the broader agenda of global disarmament.
Further, a nuclear North Korea, considered more powerful with the support of another nuclear country like Russia, would require a rethinking of defence frameworks for all surrounding countries and nuclear powers, especially countries threatened by Pyongyang. One such outcome could be Japan and South Korea's (which are currently protected under the US nuclear umbrella) desire to have their nuclear weapons, thus initiating a wider regional arms race.
While the Soviet Union once maintained considerable influence over North Korea, relations cooled off after the Cold War. Recent developments, however, suggest a reinvigoration of the linkages, particularly as Russia seeks to counter Western pressure and sanctions following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
North Korea, for its part, sees an opportunity. Since its first nuclear test in 2006, it has steadily advanced its arsenal, developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US territory. Despite extensive international sanctions, Pyongyang has pushed forward, emboldened, in part, by Moscow's increasingly supportive stance.
Russia has formally opposed proliferation but, in practice, has adopted a softer line than Western powers, often relying on engagement with North Korea rather than further sanctions, creating space for Pyongyang to continue its weapons development with minimal consequences. Though the scale to which Pyongyang is developing weapons is not fully verified, reports suggest that there has been significant and recurrent Russian support. North Korea's KN-23 short-range ballistic missile, a derivative of the Soviet-era R-17 Elbrus missile, integrates several Russian technologies and materials. The missile's cruise engine employs Russian rotary hood technology, characterised by annular grooves, component markings also adhere to Russian standards, specifically the "Unified System of Design Documentation" and GOST 2.113-75, indicating Russian design protocols. The chemical composition of materials used in the missile's construction points to a Russian origin. The fuel tank is made from Russian steel grades (12X2NVFA, 19X2NVFA, 21X2NVFA, and 23X2NVFA), while the gas-dynamic control surfaces are constructed from Russian grade 9 tungsten alloy (used in Russian aerospace and defence industries).
The transfer of these technologies and materials likely occurred before 2023, as the KN-23 missile was first tested by North Korea in May 2019, suggesting a significant strategic military partnership between Russia and North Korea in the last five years.
Russia signed the Treaty in 1968 and is responsible for upholding its principles as one of the five nuclear-weapon states under the NPT.
The Russia–North Korea relationship strikes at the heart of the global non-proliferation regime, notably the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which has been a cornerstone of international arms control since 1968. Russia signed the Treaty in 1968 and is responsible for upholding its principles as one of the five nuclear-weapon states under the NPT. However, by aligning with North Korea, a nation that withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and has since violated its norms, it has undermined the Treaty's credibility.
This signals to the international community that even major nuclear powers may selectively enforce non-proliferation standards for geopolitical gains. It complicates diplomatic consensus and emboldens other states with nuclear ambitions, such as Iran, to flout international norms.
The proliferation of nuclear technology, particularly with implicit backing from a global power, threatens to destabilise regions far beyond the Koreas. It creates an environment where international treaties become formalities lacking enforcement or consequence.
North Korea's collaboration with Russia represents a turning point in regional and global power dynamics. Not only in terms of Russian support to North Korea, but also with DPRK’s use of their troops and ballistic missiles in support of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, growing alignment is strengthened by Russia's broader cooperation with China, North Korea's principal economic and political benefactor. Together, these three powers present a formidable challenge to Western-led efforts at nuclear containment in East Asia, making unified diplomacy, implementing sanctions, or exercising unified pressure on Pyongyang more difficult.
India, positioned between East and West, has an opportunity to act as a stabilising force, advocating for non-proliferation, strategic restraint, and multilateral engagement.
Further, even neighbouring countries are affected by this deepening alliance. North Korea's developing nuclear and missile capabilities, potentially reinforced by Russian technological support or political support, are raising threat perceptions in South Korea and Japan. Russia, North Korea, and China’s actions contribute to a fragmented global order, challenging the efficacy of multilateral efforts to address common security challenges. In South-east Asia, India, too, is confronted with a complicated strategic balancing act amid its long-standing defence and energy relations with Russia, as seen in the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant project, at is simultaneously concerned about regional nuclear threats, especially from Russia- backed North Korea, and has been actively involved in disarmament discussions, including the 2024 India-South Korea consultations on nuclear, chemical, and biological security.
The partnership between Russia and North Korea is a tactical alignment and a strategic challenge to the global non-proliferation order and regional stability. Russia's role as an enabler of North Korea's nuclear ambitions risks undoing decades of work toward nuclear restraint. For India, this evolving dynamic underscores the difficulty of balancing longstanding alliances with emerging global responsibilities. India, positioned between East and West, has an opportunity to act as a stabilising force, advocating for non-proliferation, strategic restraint, and multilateral engagement. However, doing so will require careful diplomacy and an unwavering commitment to global nuclear security.
Shravishtha Ajaykumar is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Shravishtha Ajaykumar is Associate Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology. Her fields of research include geospatial technology, data privacy, cybersecurity, and strategic ...
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