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Despite strong economic and strategic ties with Tehran, Beijing’s cautious rhetoric and restrained response to the Iran-Israel conflict underscore the limits of its global influence.
A telling measure of China’s global power today is its inability to intervene meaningfully in the latest showdown between Iran and Israel. Notably, Beijing remained largely silent following the United States’ strike on Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June. Its “strong condemnation” was conveyed by China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, at the UN Security Council’s (UNSC) emergency meeting the following day. He called for an immediate ceasefire, a renewed commitment to dialogue and negotiations, and for the UNSC to take appropriate action.
This message echoed Fu’s earlier remarks at the Security Council’s emergency session on 14 June, where he condemned Israel’s “violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity.” He called for an end to all “military adventurism” and reiterated China’s opposition to the use of force, including “armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities.”
Before the US strike, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with the foreign ministers of both Iran and Israel. He told Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that China “firmly condemns Israel’s violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.” Beijing also said it opposed targeted attacks on Iranian officials that led to civilian casualties.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) condemned “the military strikes carried out by Israel on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
After being briefed by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, Wang maintained that China had consistently advocated for all international disputes to be resolved through dialogue and consultation. In this light, according to the Chinese readout, “ China clearly opposes Israel’s use of force in violation of international law to attack Iran”, especially at a time when there had been ongoing negotiations to find a “political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.”
On 14 June, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) condemned “the military strikes carried out by Israel on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” It went on to add that “such aggressive actions against civilian targets, including energy and transport infrastructure” had led to unacceptable civilian casualties. The SCO also extended its “sincere condolences” to the people and government of Iran.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first statement on the war was quite balanced, with no condemnation of Israel. According to Xinhua, Xi said that the Israeli action had caused a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East and that China was deeply concerned.
Xi emphasised that “China opposes any actions that infringe upon the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of other countries (including Israel).” He called on all parties to de-escalate the conflict and prevent further casualties, adding that China was willing to mediate with all stakeholders to play a constructive role in restoring peace and stability in the Middle East.
On the same day, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson in the Chinese Foreign Ministry, repeated Xi’s language and said that the immediate priority was for hostilities to cease and to take effective measures to prevent further escalation and restore stability in the region. In response to a question, he said, “China calls on relevant parties, especially countries with special influence on Israel, to take up their due responsibilities and take immediate action to cool down the situation and prevent further spread of the conflict”, in an indirect reference to the United States.
On 19 June, Xi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the Chinese readout, Xi outlined China’s four-point “principled position” to Putin. First, the importance of reaching an immediate ceasefire; second, ensuring the safety of civilians; third, facilitating dialogue and negotiations to resolve the situation and putting “the Iran nuclear issue back on track for a political solution”; and fourth, urging the international community to work toward a lasting peace in the broader Middle East—with particular emphasis on the UNSC’s role. The readout emphasised that China remains committed to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which aims to curb Iran’s nuclear programme.
Israeli forbearance is on account of worries that attacks on the flow of oil from Iran and the Persian Gulf would drive up oil prices, impacting retail prices across the world, including in the US.
Notably, Xi has not seen it fit to condemn Israel for its actions, and his statements have been quite restrained, especially when contrasted with remarks made by Foreign Minister Wang Yi to counterparts in Egypt and Oman on June 18. Yi agreed with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aaty that Israel’s actions had disregarded international law and norms, and called for a ceasefire. In his call with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, Yi was more explicit in his condemnation of Tel Aviv, stating that “Israel’s attack on Iran violated international law and the norms governing international relations, infringed upon Iran’s sovereignty and security, and undermined regional peace and stability.”
Of immediate interest is the issue of oil. Over 90 percent of Iran’s oil is exported to China, most of it bought by a clutch of small companies that operate independently from state-owned companies. While China can easily make up the difference, Tehran will be hard put, given the existing situation, to find other buyers. In the latest episode, Israeli attacks did target some Iranian oil facilities, but not the major one at Kharg Island, from where most of the Iranian tankers sail. Israeli forbearance is on account of worries that attacks on the flow of oil from Iran and the Persian Gulf would drive up oil prices, impacting retail prices across the world, including in the US.
Asked at the daily press briefing on June 17 whether China would take the initiative to mediate in the conflict, given that Iran was a member of both SCO and BRICS, Guo Jiakun said that China was in touch with both countries “and other relevant parties” to reach a ceasefire. However, he did not specify any action taken by the Chinese except to reiterate Beijing’s position that “international disputes should be resolved through dialogue.”
China is taking a longer-term view of its ties with Iran. It views Iran, with its strategic location, size and resources, as a geopolitical partner of the future. However, Beijing does not want to be weighed down by committing to the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Meanwhile, China evacuated some 1600 citizens from Iran and hundreds from Israel. This was disclosed by spokesman Guo, who noted that Chinese consulates in Iran and Israel had coordinated the effort, also engaging with neighbouring countries to effect the evacuation.
China is taking a longer-term view of its ties with Iran. It views Iran, with its strategic location, size and resources, as a geopolitical partner of the future. However, Beijing does not want to be weighed down by committing to the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Consider the Chinese investment in Iran under Beijing’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). Weeks before the current war, the first freight train from Xian in China rolled into Iran’s Armin dry port near Tehran via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The rail route between the two countries is intended to cut down delivery time from 30-40 days at sea to just 15 days by land.
China and Iran have a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership since 2016, which is aimed at expanding cooperation in energy, trade, infrastructure, and military ties. This has seen joint military exercises between the two countries, often also involving Russia, in the Indian Ocean Region and the Gulf of Oman. In 2021, the two signed a 25-year cooperation agreement to further these objectives. China agreed to commit US$400 billion in Iran’s oil, gas, petrochemicals, and transportation industries.
However, Beijing’s arms sales to Tehran have remained limited since 2005, and China has refused to supply advanced systems like the PL-15 air-to-air missile, which was recently used by Pakistan against India. That said, China is known to supply critical components for Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programmes. The Wall Street Journal reported early this month that Iran has ordered thousands of tons of “ballistic-missile ingredients from China”. The bulk of this is ammonium perchlorate, a key ingredient in solid-fuel ballistic missiles. In essence, while Chinese officials have condemned Israeli actions and voiced support for Iranian sovereignty, Beijing has not provided material aid, whether military or civilian, in the recent conflict. Instead, China has confined itself to declarative statements emphasising the need for dialogue and negotiations.
In essence, while Chinese officials have condemned Israeli actions and voiced support for Iranian sovereignty, Beijing has not provided material aid, whether military or civilian, in the recent conflict.
Beijing also seeks to carefully balance ties between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with whom it has robust trade ties. Iran figures into China’s broader strategy of expanding its influence across the Middle East and gradually displacing the United States as the dominant external power in the region.
A great deal now depends on what happens next in the Middle East. Beijing will be keenly watching to see if the US and Israelis are able to stabilize the situation—either through military pressure or dialogue. If they are not able to do so, this will be hugely beneficial to China, as the US will find it difficult to simultaneously fulfill its aim of boosting its Indo-Pacific posture.
War, in general, weakens countries. Despite its huge wealth, the US has paid a price for its ventures in West Asia—the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia is being drained by its Ukraine war, while Iran and Israel have weakened each other in the Middle East. While China may be undergoing economic difficulties, its industrial and technological complex is growing by the day.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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