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Iran and Ethiopia’s new security pact marks a pivotal shift influenced by BRICS, which is redrawing power lines in the Horn of Africa and challenging Western influence.
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In a landmark move poised to reshape the geopolitics in the Horn of Africa, two newly joined BRICS member countries—Iran and Ethiopia—entered into a security agreement. This partnership possesses the potential to open new horizons in the cooperation between the two countries and simultaneously reset the region’s geopolitical balance.
Officially signed on 6 May 2025 in Addis Ababa, the deal outlines a range of collaborative efforts, such as—combatting cross-border crime, exchanging intelligence, and enhancing military and security capabilities through training and capacity-building initiatives. This agreement deepens the cooperation between the two nations. Furthermore, with its far-reaching consequences for regional security and geopolitical alignments, this deal signals a potential shift in the broader Horn of Africa dynamics.
For Iran, the pact represents a crucial step in its broader strategy to strengthen its political and military ties across Africa. The agreement builds on Iran’s increasing security footprint in the region—which has included the supply of surveillance and combat drones such as Mohajer-6 to Ethiopia—particularly during the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict. Tehran’s role in this conflict highlights its expanding military capabilities, which it has used to build stronger alliances with African states, especially in areas where instability creates opportunities for influence.
The agreement also underscores Iran’s intent to entrench its engagement with African states through its security apparatus, solidifying its regional strategy—including intelligence sharing and counterterrorism cooperation. This marks a continuation of Iran’s longstanding ties with Ethiopia, dating back to the 1960s when Ethiopia under Haile Selassie became the first sub-Saharan African country to establish relations with Tehran. The strategic importance of Ethiopia—located in the Horn of Africa—makes it a key partner in Iran’s efforts to develop a presence in this volatile region, despite ongoing diplomatic pressure from rival states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
For Ethiopia, the security pact comes when the country is going through some longstanding internal and external challenges. The Tigray conflict has not only drained the country’s resources but has also contributed to rising ethnic tensions, economic instability, and a complex security environment. Ethiopia’s diplomatic pivot towards Iran would allow the country to shore up its military capabilities, which is crucial for stabilising its internal situation and addressing threats from both ethnic militias and neighbouring Eritrea.
The security cooperation with Iran gives Ethiopia access to advanced military technology, intelligence, and logistical support, potentially strengthening its ability to manage internal and regional conflicts. Ethiopia is also eyeing the volatile situation with Eritrea. During the Tigray war, Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia against the Tigray. However, there are rising tensions over disputed territories and a potential Red Sea port acquisition in Somaliland. This time, Eritrea is supporting different rebel groups against the government. Iran’s support thus comes at a critical juncture where it could prove effective in helping Ethiopia navigate these potential conflicts.
Nonetheless, despite their rival agendas, Ethiopia is treading a delicate diplomatic balancing line as it seeks to maintain ties with Iran and the UAE. In the past, two countries have often remained on the opposing sides of regional conflicts, such as those in Yemen and Sudan. During the Tigray conflict, Ethiopia was able to leverage military support from both Iran and the UAE, demonstrating its ability to play a complex role in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa.
The growing cooperation between Iran and Ethiopia is also significant in the context of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) expansion. As new members of the BRICS bloc, both nations are positioning themselves to exert greater influence on the global stage. The inclusion of Iran and Ethiopia into BRICS strengthens the organisation’s geopolitical footprint, particularly in Africa. Iran and Ethiopia’s partnership could counterbalance Western influence, promoting a multipolar world order where regional powers assert greater autonomy.
Furthermore, strengthening ties between Iran and Ethiopia may also pose broader implications for the BRICS’ global strategy. As BRICS continues to expand, the organisation has the potential to become a major player in the security domain. The Iran–Ethiopia security pact reflects how BRICS members may reshape regional politics by offering one another economic, military, and strategic support in challenging Western-dominated systems.
Strikingly, this security deal comes at a time when Iran and the UAE—former long-time rivals in the Middle East—are exhibiting signs of a thaw in their relations. The meeting between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024 marks the first official meeting between the two countries’ leaders in years. This diplomatic rapprochement could set the stage for a broader regional détente, with potential consequences for the Horn of Africa’s security architecture.
While challenges remain—ranging from the ongoing Iran-Israel tension to the broader instability in the Middle East—the warming ties between Iran and the UAE could contribute to a more stable and cooperative geopolitical environment. If this trend continues, it could positively impact countries such as Ethiopia, which are navigating complex regional alliances. A united Gulf front may also contribute towards relieving/reducing the external pressures on Ethiopia as it attempts to balance its security needs with the broader geopolitical realities of the Middle East.
In conclusion, this security agreement between Iran and Ethiopia signals a shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa but also reflects the evolving dynamics within BRICS and the broader Middle Eastern power structures.
Over time, Iran and Ethiopia’s influence in shaping the future of the Horn of Africa will only grow and offer new avenues for multilateral engagement in the region. However, the success of this security pact and its broader regional implications will hinge on the ability of Ethiopia, Iran, and other stakeholders to navigate the complex web of alliances and rivalries that define the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), where he works on geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in the changing global ...
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