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Much like the 1920s, the United States (US) seems to be increasingly retreating from the global stage and shifting into isolationism. As the richest country on the planet, the US withdrawal from the rest of the world would be consequential, not only for Europe’s safety and security but for the least developed and developing countries that are dependent on US aid.
Without US support, Europe is getting its act together by increasing its defence capabilities and finding ways to prosper without relying on the vast American market. It may take time, but it should not be assumed that Europe cannot do it. Where, then, does that leave the rest of us?
Since World War II, Europe has imagined an ever-closer union, striving to integrate into a single entity. They have largely achieved that with a common market and a single currency. It is only a matter of time before they come up with a unified army.
The British come to the Maldives on holiday only because they can’t buy the same exquisite lavishness in Europe.
The United Kingdom (UK) entered the common market at the expense of the Commonwealth. The Maldives must pay a 25 percent duty just to export fish to Britain. To get British tourists to buy a Maldives holiday is far more expensive than if they were to buy it from Europe. The British come to the Maldives on holiday only because they can’t buy the same exquisite lavishness in Europe. It is not just the Maldives; other Commonwealth countries also faced losses when Britain joined the common market.
Britain has left the European Union, and the Commonwealth countries are endlessly negotiating trade agreements with Britain. As everything British, it’s done in a queue. Maldives and many other Commonwealth countries are patiently waiting, while some question whether a trade arrangement with Britain is truly beneficial for them. As China and India become increasingly prosperous, selling goods in those markets appears far more attractive.
The Commonwealth is not just Britain; it is 56 sovereign countries and over 2.7 billion people. The combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Commonwealth of Nations was approximately US$13 trillion in 2021. It is estimated to reach US$20 trillion by 2027, almost doubling in 10 years. The shared values of the 2.7 billion people of the Commonwealth extend beyond their history of colonisation. That is the past, and with shifting geopolitics, it will be unwise to be hungover on it. We share far more in common than just a legacy of oppression.
Last year, this author participated in a project titled ‘Reimagining the Commonwealth. ’ The former Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, with Adam Jogee, Labour Member of Parliament for Newcastle-under-Lyme, co-chaired the project. The group included the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia, Hon. Alexander Downer AC, and the Chair of the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group for the Commonwealth, Andrew Rosindell.
To assist the discussion, a poll was carried out in the UK, India, Nigeria, Australia, and Malaysia. It explored public attitudes towards the UK, asking respondents what they believe should be prioritised by the Commonwealth in the future.
The combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Commonwealth of Nations was approximately US$13 trillion in 2021. It is estimated to reach US$20 trillion by 2027, almost doubling in 10 years.
The Commonwealth nations have transformed far more during the last two decades than in any recent history, especially the survey target countries. Although Nigeria lags in economic development and the prosperity of its people, India has become the world’s third-largest economy, and Malaysia is on the verge of being a developed nation. During this same period, the UK has rapidly changed to become a multi-ethnic democracy, shifting its political and commercial elite from Caucasian men to people of different ethnic origins. The multicultural society that the UK is building is obvious for all to see. The previous UK PM is of Indian origin, its Cabinet, Shadow Cabinet, and several of the Members of the House of Commons are from different ethnic backgrounds. Public servants and the corporate board rooms are catching up. The survey results reflect these changes.
The first survey question examined the role of the UK in the evolving world, implicitly reflecting on the role of the Commonwealth in geopolitics. As the host of the Commonwealth, the UK's public perception is closely tied to the Commonwealth’s. The survey revealed that while British and Australian respondents felt the UK was not significantly impactful, former colonies believed the UK was doing well.
The survey had questions on Ukraine and Russia, indicating that former colonial countries favour removing the Russian-Ukraine war from being solely a European issue. A majority of Malaysian, Nigerian, and Indian respondents believe that inviting Ukraine to join the Commonwealth could help resolve the conflict. This approach does not necessarily aim to limit Russia's international influence, given the historically cordial relations between former colonies and Russia. Survey results suggest that Commonwealth countries prioritise the betterment of their people and increased trade and investments.
A majority of Malaysian, Nigerian, and Indian respondents believe that inviting Ukraine to join the Commonwealth could help resolve the conflict.
Based on these insights, the Commonwealth can be reimagined. The British monarch and the UK can remain the host of the Commonwealth, with the Secretariat at Marlborough House, but with a new entity as the head of the Commonwealth. The head can rotate amongst member countries every three to four years. The ambassador of the reigning Commonwealth head should reside at Buckingham Palace, with the head always being a former leader of a Commonwealth state.
For safety and security, the Commonwealth countries can establish a military alliance among members, with clear treaties to defend each other's sovereignty, and create a unified Commonwealth Army ready to intervene in conflicts deemed necessary by the Commonwealth. A decision-making process must be developed to govern military interventions.
A Commonwealth Development Bank needs to be created to assist debt-ridden member countries by restructuring their debts. The bank could help them adopt green prosperity paths to debt sustainability rather than International Monetary Fund-style austerity measures. Additionally, it could provide development loans to member countries.
The new Commonwealth can establish regional universities with scholarships for member countries and standardised teaching across universities.
Commonwealth countries could also enter into a legally binding agreement on carbon emissions, allocating emission allowances based on historical and current emission levels. They could determine adaptation funding levels accordingly and assist member countries with climate-related loss and damage.
The new Commonwealth can establish regional universities with scholarships for member countries and standardised teaching across universities. Regional hospitals providing healthcare for all citizens of member countries could be created, as well. There exists an imaginary utopian world, and for this, we have the US and President Donald Trump to thank for pushing us to think along these lines.
Mohamed Nasheed is the former President of Maldives.
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