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On 20 January 2025, as Donald Trump raised his hand to take the presidential oath for the second time, Nigel Farage stood among the cheering crowd—a moment that symbolised more than just a personal allegiance. It marked the convergence of two political worlds: Trump’s combative populism and Farage’s unrelenting ambition to reshape British politics. For Farage, this was not just a spectacle; it was a declaration that “Reform UK” is here to upend the status quo.
Nigel Farage's presence at Trump’s inauguration was no mere coincidence. Their alliance, forged during the Brexit campaign, reflects a transatlantic partnership rooted in a shared disdain for the elites and an ability to channel public discontent. Farage has consistently leveraged this relationship to bolster his political relevance, even offering his services to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government. He claimed that his “personal friendship” with Trump could strengthen United Kingdom (UK)-United States (US) ties, positioning himself as a key figure in shaping post-Brexit diplomacy.
Farage’s strategic use of his alliance with Trump highlights his knack for intertwining his networks with broader political narratives, cementing his place as a transatlantic political operator.
However, Labour firmly rejected Farage's overture. Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden emphasised that the government would "have our own relationships" and did not need Farage’s help to communicate with Trump. This rebuff underscored Labour’s commitment to maintaining an independent foreign policy, distancing itself from Farage’s influence despite his close ties to the newly re-elected US President. Farage’s strategic use of his alliance with Trump highlights his knack for intertwining his networks with broader political narratives, cementing his place as a transatlantic political operator.
Yet, this alignment with Trump presents both an opportunity and a risk. In Trump’s presidency, Farage sees a chance to bolster UK trade, push for sectoral agreements, and recalibrate Britain’s post-Brexit identity. However, Trump’s political baggage, combined with Farage’s own polarising image, makes this a precarious tightrope. A public spat with Elon Musk, who has taken on an influential role in Trump’s orbit, hinted at the fragility of Farage’s alliances. While Farage called Musk a “hero” for his free speech advocacy, their disagreement served as a reminder that even populist leaders must navigate the egos of their contemporaries.
Farage’s domestic strategy and the right-wing fragmentation
At home, Nigel Farage has been strategically tapping into the discontent within right-wing politics, positioning Reform UK as a viable alternative to both the faltering Conservatives and Labour’s growing dominance. Reform UK has reported a significant membership growth, surpassing the Conservatives to become the UK's second-largest party by membership, trailing only Labour. According to an online membership tracker, the party recorded 120,549 members as of 23 December 2024, with further growth into January 2025. This rise comes amidst the Conservative Party’s decline, with membership figures dropping to 131,680, far below the 180,000 claimed in earlier discussions about 2019.
Farage’s assertion of Reform UK’s momentum led to a public clash with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who dismissed Reform UK’s membership figures as inflated. In response, Reform UK invited media outlets to verify their numbers, which were confirmed as accurate. Farage labeled Badenoch's allegations as "disgraceful", even threatening legal action if an apology was not forthcoming. The exchange underscored Reform UK’s growing influence as it capitalises on a fragmented right-wing voter base.
Farage labeled Badenoch's allegations as "disgraceful", even threatening legal action if an apology was not forthcoming.
Reform UK’s rise is not without precedent. Like Trump’s Republican takeover in 2016, Farage’s popularity feeds on voter frustration with stale political elites. He’s channeling the anger of those who feel left behind by globalisation, immigration, and the cultural shift of a Britain still searching for its post-Brexit identity. That said, Farage isn’t just targeting the Conservatives. Labour, under Keir Starmer, presents a far more formidable opponent.
Unlike the chaotic Tories, Starmer’s Labour has rebranded itself as a party of competence and pragmatism, appealing to both centrists and former Conservative voters. With its focus on industrial strategy and economic revival, Labour has tightened its grip on the Red Wall constituencies that deserted it in 2019. These victories, however, haven’t gone unchallenged. Farage is skillfully exploiting the gaps Labour has yet to fill—voters disillusioned by what they see as a technocratic and elitist Labour leadership. Reform UK’s populist messaging on immigration, energy independence, and small-business empowerment resonates in these communities, offering an alternative to both Labour’s polished centrism and the Tories’ dysfunction.
Farage’s ambitions, of course, are nothing short of audacious. Fresh from Trump’s victory, he declared there was a 25 percent chance he could become Prime Minister during Trump’s presidency. Hyperbole? Certainly. Yet, it reflects the swagger of a man who has repeatedly defied political odds. His party consistently polls in the 10-12 percent range—not enough to make serious inroads in a first-past-the-post system, but enough to siphon crucial votes from Labour in marginal constituencies and devastate the Conservatives.
Farage’s disruption and the long-term impact of Reform UK
Reform UK’s strength lies in its capacity for disruption. Farage doesn’t need to win outright to leave a mark on Britain’s political trajectory. By siphoning off Conservative support and challenging Labour in regions where its grip remains tenuous, he is compelling both parties to recalibrate their strategies. For Labour, the priority is safeguarding its Red Wall gains against Farage’s populist rhetoric. For the Conservatives, it is a battle for survival amidst declining membership and voter defection.
Trump’s potential return to the White House offers Farage a narrative of validation, framing populism as an enduring force in Western politics rather than a passing phase.
Farage’s alliance with Trump adds an intriguing layer to his strategy. Trump’s potential return to the White House offers Farage a narrative of validation, framing populism as an enduring force in Western politics rather than a passing phase. Yet this association cuts both ways: while it energises his core base, it risks alienating moderates who might otherwise view Reform UK as a credible alternative.
The challenge for Farage is less about toppling the political establishment outright and more about sustaining his disruptiveness long enough to entrench it within Britain’s political landscape. Reform UK thrives on the turbulence of a fractured right-wing, Labour’s cautious dominance, and a backdrop of global uncertainty. Farage’s gamble is that he can convert voter disillusionment into enduring political capital. Whether he succeeds will depend on the extent to which British voters embrace his brand of populism in an era of growing polarisation. What is undeniable, however, is that Nigel Farage has made Reform UK a force that can no longer be dismissed, leaving its long-term impact on Britain’s politics an open and unfolding question.
Ashraf Nehal is a Postgraduate Scholar of South Asian Geopolitics, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London
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