Russia is going to vote for a new President on 18 March. This election comes amidst its worsening relations with the West, sanctions, and increasingly aggressive rhetoric from both sides. President Vladimir Putin is most likely to be re-elected as he remains the most popular figure, both from within and outside Russia, according to analyses, polls and opinion pieces.
If elected power, that would be Putin’s fourth term as President. Previously, he was the President from 2000 to 2008. Next four years, he assumed the position of the Chairman of the Government in — essentially as the prime minister. After this, he was elected President once again. The Russian constitution sets a two consecutive term limit for the President.
Surprisingly, Putin this time is running as an independent and not as a candidate of the ruling party, United Russia, as he had done previously. However, four of the Duma’s six parties, including the United Russia, have chosen not to field their own candidates and instead support the President’s candidacy.
Putin’s move to run independently serves to distance him from the growing unpopularity of the United Russia itself, and to also show that he enjoys the support of a broader base.
Nevertheless, there are several candidates against Putin. These include well-established parties and politicians as well as new entrants into the political sphere. All of them are running as their party candidates.
The two largest parties in the State Duma — the lower house of the legislature — are the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) and the Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR). The CPRF has put up a businessman, Pavel Grudinin, as their candidate. Earlier, the party used to field its leader, Gennady Zyuganov. He has been a mainstay of almost every presidential election since 1996, when he was able to force the elections into a run-off against the then-incumbent President Boris Yeltsin. However, in the hopes of attracting a larger segment of voters, the party this time has chosen a younger candidate with more moderate views.
There are several candidates against Putin. These include well-established parties and politicians as well as new entrants into the political sphere.
However, the LDPR, a nationalist party with chauvinist and revanchist views, has fielded its old war horse, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is running for president for the fifth time since 1996. The three other parties in opposition — A Just Russia, Civic Platform and Rodina — have chosen to support the incumbent President.
Several non-Duma parties have also put up candidates. The nationalist Russian All-People’s Union’s candidate is Sergey Baburin, a former Duma member. The pro-business Party of Growth is led by Boris Titov, who is also the current Presidential Commissioner for Entrepreneurs’ Rights. The long-standing liberal party Yabloko’s candidate is Grigory Yavlinksy. Another Communist party, Communist of Russia, has fielded Maxim Suraykin.
Putin’s former boss’s daughter is also contesting against him. She is also the daughter of Anatoly Sobchak, a former mayor of St. Petersburg, under whom Vladimir Putin has worked as an advisor on international affairs.
There is one more candidate, Ksenia Sobchak, who is running on behalf of Civic Initiative, a liberal progressive party.
But, prominent anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny was
barred from running owing to a previous conviction for embezzlement. This decision had created a big hue and cry in the global media.
Popularity polls give easy victory to Putin. In the
polls conducted by the pollster Levada, the President has been polling over 60 percent, and even higher among people who were ready and willing to cast their votes. His closest competitor is Vladimir Zhirinovsky of the LDPR who has been polling just 8 and 10 per cent.
Popularity polls give easy victory to Putin.
The elections are expected to quantify the wide support the President enjoys, with state authorities promoting a goal of ‘70/70’, i.e. a 70 per cent turnout with a 70 per cent vote share. The inevitability of the result has led to much voter apathy and in
some regions efforts were being made to attract the youth vote, including photo contests.
The opposition, of which Alexei Navalny has emerged as a figurehead, has been active as well and has planned to boycott the elections in protest to deny the presidency the legitimacy it seeks. Thousands of people attended the protests in January, calling for a boycott. The dissemination of opposing views and anti-corruption investigations through the internet has found an audience in predominantly young people, who are willing to attend even unsanctioned protests. But the boycott is unlikely to impact the turnout numbers significantly, as people still
see value in elections and voting for the right candidate, and the right candidate for many is still the President.
Even though the results are almost clear, the subsequent presidential term will be a significant one. The two consecutive term limit and six-year term length would mean President Putin will not be able to run again till at least 2030. This has already prompted the talk of a ‘post-Putin’ Russia. Although the possibility of him staying on in some other capacity is not ruled out — and the comparisons to Xi Jinping are inevitable — this term will be crucial in determining Russia’s future political and economic trajectory.
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