France's political crisis unfolds amid a second Trump presidency, looming trade tariffs, fraying security guarantees, and the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war
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On 4 December, the French government collapsed following a no-confidence vote in the lower house of Parliament. The vote ensued after Prime Minister Michael Barnier pushed forward a contentious social security bill using executive powers and bypassing parliamentary approval. The leftwing New Popular Front alliance, comprising the Socialist Party and the far-left France Unbowed, converged with the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen, with a resounding 331 MPs in the 577-member chamber backing the motion to bring down the government. The vote marked the first such ousting of a government since the fall of Georges Pompidou’s administration in 1962 under President Charles de Gaulle and rendered Barnier, who only served for three months in office, as the shorted-serving Prime Minister since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
The crisis worsened when Macron appointed the centre-right Barnier as prime minister instead of a candidate from the left alliance that holds the largest seats in Parliament.
France’s political turbulence escalated when French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in June to avert the rise of the far-right after his party’s losses in the European Parliament elections. The election resulted in a hung Parliament consisting of three ideological groups—the far-right, the left (including the far-left) and the centrists, neither holding a majority and making it almost impossible to govern. The crisis worsened when Macron appointed the centre-right Barnier as prime minister instead of a candidate from the left alliance that holds the largest seats in Parliament. This enabled the support of the far-right as integral to the government’s survival and also compelled Barnier to co-opt far-right rhetoric on issues of immigration and security. Despite Barnier’s concessions on the electricity tax and other far-right demands to garner its support, the latter pulled the plug on his government.
The French economy, the eurozone’s second-largest, faces a range of economic woes, including low growth, high debt with borrowing costs even at one point overtaking those in Greece, and 9 million people living in poverty. Estimates by ING predict only a 0.6 percent growth rate for the French economy in 2025 compared to 1.1 percent in 2024. Barnier’s budget was intended to tackle mounting debt pressures by reducing the deficit from the current 6.1 percent of GDP (way higher than the European Commission’s 3 percent limit) to 5 percent through €60 billion in tax raises and spending cuts.
The French economy, the eurozone’s second-largest, faces a range of economic woes, including low growth, high debt with borrowing costs even at one point overtaking those in Greece, and 9 million people living in poverty.
The parliamentary elections cannot be held in France until July 2025 according to Article 12 of the French Constitution as the previous snap election was only called six months ago,
On the one hand, opposition voices have called on Macron, who was visiting Saudi Arabia when the government collapsed, to resign. At around 23 percent, the President has low approval ratings, and according to a poll, 62 percent of the French public wants him to resign, but Macron has vowed to continue his term in the Élysée. On the other hand, Le Pen, who is embroiled in a court case, wants an early election, lest she be found guilty in March and prohibited from contesting the 2027 presidential election.
Macron’s immediate task is to appoint a new Prime Minister. Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, centrist leader François Bayrou, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, and former PM Bernard Cazeneuve are some of the leading contenders. However, consensus in choosing a new PM will be challenging given a gridlocked National Assembly. Meanwhile, any new PM is likely to face similar challenges as Barnier in passing a budget and arriving at a political consensus on key issues.
The French constitution does include measures to prevent an American-style government shutdown, with a possibility of rolling over the 2024 budget into the following year. Yet this would not only delay sorting France’s fiscal challenges.
If the effort to agree on a new PM proves futile, an alternative is a caretaker government with Barnier continuing to manage administrative affairs and proposing a provisional roll-over budget, or a technocratic government with non-partisan ministers managing daily tasks. Either way, arriving at a consensus for next year’s budget will continue to be elusive. The French constitution does include measures to prevent an American-style government shutdown, with a possibility of rolling over the 2024 budget into the following year. Yet this would not only delay sorting France’s fiscal challenges.
France’s political crisis also puts Europe in a precarious situation as the continent grapples with the implications of a second Trump presidency, looming trade tariffs, and fraying security guarantees against the upcoming backdrop of the third-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the meantime, the EU’s other powerhouse Germany is facing its own internal political fragmentation after Chancellor Scholz’s coalition government collapsed over budgetary policy as well. With leadership vacuums in both Paris and Berlin, the EU’s united front along with policies on security and Ukraine are likely to be weakened, at a time when governments across Europe face demands to increase spending on defence and industrial competitiveness.
The EU’s other powerhouse Germany is facing its own internal political fragmentation after Chancellor Scholz’s coalition government collapsed over budgetary policy as well.
Despite the bells in the Notre Dame cathedral chiming once again, Paris will move into the new year with a political system in disarray, and neither a stable government nor a new budget to stabilise its finances.
Shairee Malhotra is the Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation
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Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director - Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on ...
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