Poland heads to a pivotal presidential vote on 18 May, where progressive and conservative forces clash in a tight three-way race for the top office
Image Source: Getty
On 18 May 2025, Poland will head to the polls in a high-stakes election to elect its new president, who will succeed the incumbent President Andrzej Duda, currently in his second term and ineligible for re-election.
In October 2023, the pro-European Donald Tusk, former President of the European Council, and his Civic Coalition (KO) won the Polish parliamentary election, thereby ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland for eight years from 2016-2023. However, the current Tusk-led government has remained constrained by the conservative Duda from PiS, who has repeatedly used his presidential powers to veto Tusk’s reform agenda.
Even though seven candidates are running for the presidency, polls suggest that its a “three-horse race” between progressive KO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, currently the Mayor of Warsaw, who lost to Duda by a thin margin in the 2020 presidential election, and PiS-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki, a politically inexperienced rightwing conservative historian who heads the National Remembrance Institute and is rallying on a ‘Poland First, Poles First’ campaign. On the far right is Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, who has gained popularity amongst young voters through a large social media following and has emerged as a strong third contender.
A poll conducted by Politico in April 2025 saw Trzaskowski in the lead with 34 percent support, followed by Nawrocki at 22 percent, and Mentzen at 17 percent. Despite Trzaskowski’s clear lead, there are concerns of Nawrocki outperforming him, bearing in mind the outcome of the 2015 presidential election when a virtually unknown Duda won against then incumbent President Bronisław Komorowski from the Civic Platform party.
On the far right is Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, who has gained popularity amongst young voters through a large social media following and has emerged as a strong third contender.
A Trzaskowski victory would enable Tusk’s three-way coalition to govern more effectively, restore the rule of law and implement reforms, so far blocked by Duda, aimed at reversing PiS’s legacy. During its rule, PiS practically banned abortion, seized control of the country’s public broadcaster, and politicised the judiciary. In 2024, Prime Minister (PM) Tusk recalled dozens of Polish ambassadors appointed by the PiS government in a dramatic reshuffle, followed by Duda’s refusal to approve the new nominees. Meanwhile, a Nawrocki victory would allow PiS to continue this obstructionist agenda.
If neither of the candidates secures over 50 percent votes on 18 May, a run-off is scheduled for 1 June 2025 between the two candidates with the most votes.
On the one hand, the election is being touted as a referendum on the Tusk government’s performance on socio-economic issues. Polish voters are concerned about public services and the rise of inflation that has rendered the cost of butter an electoral issue. On the other hand, external factors, including the Ukraine war, the Russian threat and Poland-United States (US) relations have emerged as key campaign issues, potentially overshadowing domestic concerns.
Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has played a frontline role in supporting Ukraine, with concerns about the Russian threat prevalent across Polish parties. However, the mood has been shifting from solidarity towards anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, underlined by increasingly negative Polish sentiments towards Ukrainians. It is estimated that out of the 1.5 million Ukrainian citizens residing in Poland, 980,000 are refugees, with Poles becoming wary about granting illegal benefits amidst the glorification of Ukrainian nationalists who killed Poles during World War II. This has led to all three candidates deploying populist rhetoric reflecting this sentiment against Ukrainians. Even the liberal Trzaskowski has conditioned child subsidies for Ukrainians, reflecting a broader trend within Europe of centrist politicians co-opting rightwing talking points to appeal to voters on the right. A survey revealed that 53 percent of Poles want to stop sending weapons to Kyiv.
Even the liberal Trzaskowski has conditioned child subsidies for Ukrainians, reflecting a broader trend within Europe of centrist politicians co-opting rightwing talking points to appeal to voters on the right.
In terms of security affairs, there is agreement across the political spectrum to increase Poland’s defence spending, which is already one of the highest in Europe, to 5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is also underscored by Poland’s current presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), where security is a top priority. Nonetheless, candidates differ on the means to boost defence capabilities. Both Nawrocki and Mentzen oppose European defence initiatives that may develop at the expense of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). They support strengthening Polish security under the ambit of the transatlantic alliance rather than pursuing “a pipe dream” of enhancing continental security without the US, while Mentzen advocates national military self-sufficiency and greater local weapons production. Meanwhile, Trzaskowski champions a greater role for the EU in security and lessened dependence on the US. According to a survey, the vast majority of the Polish public still view the US as Poland’s main security guarantor despite their criticism of the US President Donald Trump. Poland continues to remain among the most pro-US countries in Europe.
Much like in the other parts of Europe, US President Donald Trump’s re-election has ideologically emboldened the right-wing populism in Poland. Nawrocki has appealed to voters to choose him based on PiS’s close ties with Trump, instead of the centrists critical of Trump.
As Poland’s former EU Affairs Minister, Trzaskowski would likely strengthen Poland’s standing in the EU, which was dented by the Eurosceptic PiS, and revived after the change of guard in Warsaw in 2023 and Poland’s central role in advocating for Ukraine. During PiS rule, Brussels froze €130 billion EU funds to Poland over rule of law concerns and democratic backsliding, and thereafter released them under PM Tusk. Meanwhile, a Nawrocki win may rekindle tensions between Brussels and Warsaw, which could be even further strained under the vehemently anti-EU Mentzen.
During PiS rule, Brussels froze €130 billion EU funds to Poland over rule of law concerns and democratic backsliding, and thereafter released them under PM Tusk.
The rightwing candidates have expressed concerns about potential interference by the European Commission based on the invalidation of election results in Romania after the victory of a right-wing candidate. On the other hand, the Tusk-led government has expressed fears of American tech billionaire Elon Musk’s potential influence in the elections based on his interventions in the recent German elections.
As Poles choose between conservative and progressive forces, the result of the election will determine the country’s future direction. Trzaskowski’s victory would consolidate Poland’s return to the pro-EU liberal camp and serve as a model for progressive politicians across Europe. However, a PiS or far-right victory may keep Poland hamstrung between two opposing currents.
Shairee Malhotra is the Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director - Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on ...
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