This commentary is part of the ongoing USIPS NED project. The indigenous people and local communities of Northeast India, who bear disproportionate climate risks, deserve stronger representation and resources to claim their rightful place in the global fight for climate justice.
Image Source: Sean Gallup/via Getty Images
India’s Northeast ranks among the most vulnerable and early climate change-impacted regions of the world. The area has experienced conflicts, frequent floods, erosion, landslides, loss of livelihoods, displaced populations, and biodiversity reduction for several decades. In the past, not many would have associated these as manifestations of anthropogenic warming of the planet, but modern understanding of the climate crisis has evolved. The frequency and intensity of floods have increased due to climate change, with worse projections for the future.
Perhaps the first study to reveal the warming impact in Northeast India was the 2019 “Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Indian Himalayan Region Using a Common Framework,” which placed four Northeast states among the top five most vulnerable to climate change in the Himalayan region. The assessment analysed several broad categories of indicators, including socio-economy, demographic status and health, the sensitivity of agricultural production, forest-dependent livelihoods, and access to information, services, and infrastructure. The Indian delegation at the 24th UN Climate Change Conference (COP24) identified Assam and Mizoram as the most vulnerable regions to climate change based on these findings.
A data-based index of ‘hydro-political’ issues in areas with a history of transboundary water resources, where conflicts are likely to be exacerbated by climate change and population growth, forecasts “water wars” in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Report of 2019 corroborated the projections of the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report regarding glacial loss in the Himalayas, besides providing fresh insights into impacts in the Eastern Himalayan region. Even if warming is limited to 1.5°C, over one-third of Eastern Himalayan glaciers could be lost by 2100, with average regional temperatures already up by 1.3°C. As much as 40 percent of Tibetan plateau glaciers may disappear by 2050, threatening water, energy, and food security in Northeast India, including Assam. A data-based index of ‘hydro-political’ issues in areas with a history of transboundary water resources, where conflicts are likely to be exacerbated by climate change and population growth, forecasts “water wars” in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin.
Recent trends indicate increasing manifestations of warming in the Northeast. In September 2024, most states in the region experienced an unusual heatwave with temperatures reaching 40°C and anomalies up to 10°C above normal amid high humidity; many places in the region were close to experiencing “heat-dome” conditions with temperatures that felt like 50 degrees Celsius. A few months earlier in May, another prolonged heatwave had killed scores of people. Schools were shut down due to excessive heat, with some places recording temperatures 8 degrees above normal. The intense heat across Northeast India was unprecedented, and several districts registered new temperature records.
To aggravate matters, Assam experienced devastating floods in between the two heatwaves, with over a hundred reported deaths and more than 1.2 million people affected across 23 districts of the Brahmaputra valley. Widespread erosion by the rampaging rivers caused extensive damage to properties, crop fields, farms, and livestock, impoverishing the affected populace. The floods inevitably bring health and sanitation challenges, disease outbreaks, and food scarcity. But their long-term impacts, such as on children’s mental health, due to the disruption of educational and occupational opportunities, increased stigma, discrimination, and social marginalisation, need to be better understood. Some studies have revealed that natural disasters have long-lasting effects on mental health, often causing post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and general anxiety.
Temperature rise, vegetation change, and degraded and fragmented habitats across the Northeast have led to increasing instances of human-wildlife conflicts.
It is also important to note that temperature rise, vegetation change, and degraded and fragmented habitats across the Northeast have led to increasing instances of human-wildlife conflicts. Studies have linked the proliferation of invasive vegetation to warming and precipitation change, as is evident across the region. Visuals of tigers, leopards, bears, and elephants in conflict with people have flooded social and mainstream media in recent years. The Northeast has some of the highest casualty rates from such conflicts among all Indian states, yet the correlations with warming impacts are not well established.
Assam has consistently topped the states most affected or vulnerable to climate change in India in studies published during the last decade. The largest of the northeastern states by population was listed among the 8 most vulnerable states by the ‘Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning in India Using a Common Framework,’ a few years back. More recently, the national climate vulnerability assessment report from the Department of Science and Technology placed 60 percent of districts in Assam under the highly vulnerable category. Another study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water found that six of India’s eight most flood-prone districts during the last decade are in Assam.
The 2023 “Gross Domestic Climate Risk” report by the Cross Dependency Initiative ranked nine Indian states, including Assam, among the top 50 global regions most at risk of climate-related damage to the built environment by 2050. Assam placed 28th, with a projected climate risk increase of over 33 percent from 1990 levels. The report highlights vulnerability where residential, industrial, and commercial areas intersect with rising extreme weather events.
The Northeastern states have taken innovative, ambitious steps to address climate change impacts. The Arunachal Pradesh government’s landmark Pakke Declaration initiative, with time-bound short-, medium- and long-term targets encompassing all departments, aims to reach Net Zero by 2047, preceding the national target of 2070.
In Tripura, the government and civil society collaboration Bio-village 2.0 uses a holistic bottom-up approach for developing model villages focused on socio-economic growth, sustainable development, and biodiversity conservation. Meghalaya’s “Environment state” concept aims to integrate nature into economic planning and create climate action zones around ecological regions with incentives for climate-sensitive products and organisations.
Assam has established “climate cells” in colleges and initiated research projects to evaluate sectoral climate change impacts. The government has also implemented a retirement policy for vehicles over 15 years and introduced a fleet of CNG and electric buses.
The indigenous people and local communities of Northeast India are victims of the climate crisis. Although their contribution to greenhouse gas accumulation is minimal, they are often among the earliest to experience the direct effects of warming and have limited resources for adaptation.
The indigenous people and local communities of Northeast India are victims of the climate crisis. Although their contribution to greenhouse gas accumulation is minimal, they are often among the earliest to experience the direct effects of warming and have limited resources for adaptation. At the same time, they have the knowledge and wisdom oriented toward nature that have helped them cope with weather anomalies.
Across the region, the loss of forest cover, invasive vegetation, and the disappearance of native biodiversity have emerged as direct threats to the food security of millions. The impact of warming on native biodiversity used as food and medicine by indigenous communities is a less-studied but expected consequence. The lives, livelihoods, and food security of the Misings, Karbis, and other indigenous people and local communities across the Eastern Himalayan region are undermined by the unfolding climate and biodiversity crises.
Northeast India's indigenous traditions and knowledge can greatly strengthen resilience, positioning the region as a key player in global climate justice. To amplify the region's voice, it is essential to increase representation from Northeast India in official delegations, empower civil society activists to share the region's wisdom, and support informed and passionate youth to attend global conferences, ensuring that Northeast India's valuable insights and experiences are included in climate justice conversations.
Rituraj Phukan is the Founder of the Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum, a Member of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and the National Coordinator for Biodiversity with The Climate Reality Project India.
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Rituraj Phukan is the Founder of the Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum, a Member of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and the National ...
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