As US visa denials rise, Indian students' aspirations face hurdles. This is India's moment to pivot from outbound dependency into a robust domestic education boom.
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The United States US) has long been a sought-after destination for Indian students seeking world-class education, research opportunities, and pathways to global careers. In 2024, the US hosted an all-time high number of over 1.1 million international students. Indian students constituted the largest chunk of this cohort, with 331,602 enrolments—marking an increase of 23.3 percent from the previous year. NAFSA’s (Association of International Educators) analysis revealed that international students in the US contributed US$43.8 billion and supported 378,175 jobs in the US economy in 2023–2024.
As the ‘American dream’ becomes more elusive for Indian youth, India must seize this opportunity to strengthen its higher education ecosystem—to meet its domestic needs and assert regional leadership in advancing South-South diplomacy.
However, the Trump administration’s recent crackdown on student visas, intensified regulatory screening, and anti-immigration rhetoric have resulted in a sense of fear and uncertainty for international students. As the ‘American dream’ becomes more elusive for Indian youth, India must seize this opportunity to strengthen its higher education ecosystem—to meet its domestic needs and assert regional leadership in advancing South-South diplomacy.
Since January 2025, the Trump administration has introduced a series of restrictive measures targeting international students, which have led to increased rejection rates, deepened scrutiny (including checks on online behaviour), and targeted institutional actions. While these measures have created significant barriers for international students, they have also resulted in an increasingly negative perception of the US as a less friendly option for higher education. According to the US State Department, there has been a 50 percent dip in visas issued to Indian students, reflecting heightened scrutiny and administrative barriers.
Thousands of visas for international students already studying in the U.S. have been revoked due to minor infractions, leading to rapid deportations. This trend recently culminated in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) revoking Harvard University's Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification, barring it from enrolling foreign students. This threatens the status of 10,158 international students at Harvard and directly affects 788 Indian students who are studying at Harvard. While a federal judge has temporarily blocked the move, and 12,000 alumni and 24 universities have rallied in Harvard’s support, the situation remains fraught with uncertainty as visa processing challenges and legal battles continue, raising ongoing concerns for international students and their future.
Legislative proposals and executive rhetoric are also targeting the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, which allows international students to work for three years post-degree in STEM fields. A regulatory rollback of OPT has been announced because it impacts American jobs. The prospect of studying in the US without clear post-study employment opportunities significantly alters Indian youth’s aspiration for ‘the American dream’.
For Indian students, the immediate fallout from these policy changes has been multi-fold—from uncertainty and stress, to financial risks. Unexpected announcements and the uncertainty on policy implementation timelines have created widespread confusion and emotional distress among students and their families. For Indian middle-class families, sending a child to the US involves several years of savings—with study costs ranging between INR 3.5–5 million annually. Any uncertainty for visa approval or the work authorisation process turns US education into a high-risk investment, significantly altering the family’s cost-benefit analysis. This is causing dropouts or deferments, with several Indian students withdrawing applications altogether or choosing to wait, biding their time for a more stable policy environment before applying. There has also been a strategic shift in student preferences with Indian students increasingly turning toward alternate destinations such as Germany, Russia, France, New Zealand, Uzbekistan or Bangladesh (Refer to Table 1).
Table 1: Percentage increase in Indian students from 2022–2025
|
Country |
2022 |
2023 |
2025 |
% Increase (2022–2025) |
|
France |
6,406 |
7,484 |
8,536 |
+33.3% |
|
New Zealand |
1,605 |
6,471 |
7,297 |
+354.7% |
|
Germany |
20,684 |
23,296 |
34,702 |
+67.8% |
|
Bangladesh |
17,006 |
20,368 |
29,232 |
+71.9% |
|
Russia |
19,784 |
23,503 |
31,444 |
+59.1% |
|
Ireland |
6,211 |
8,011 |
10,438 |
+68.1% |
|
Uzbekistan |
3,430 |
6,601 |
9,915 |
+189.2% |
Source: Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 1730, answered on 10.03.2025
In the long run, if the number of enrollments by Indian students in the US continues to decline, it might weaken the Indian diaspora’s influence in American society and business. It will slow the pace of research and innovation in the US and reduce the mutual benefits of educational exchange for both countries. Over time, this could shift the strategic balance in global talent flows and reduce the depth of India-US cooperation in education, technology, and innovation.
With US pathways narrowing, India must work to enhance the global competitiveness of its higher education institutions and diversify education and research collaboration with other countries. The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 offers a blueprint to achieve all these objectives by internationalising curricula, fostering global research collaborations, improving industry alignment, building a robust ecosystem for innovation and entrepreneurship, and seeking regulatory reforms through the Higher Education Commission of India (HECI).
With US pathways narrowing, India must work to enhance the global competitiveness of its higher education institutions and diversify education and research collaboration with other countries.
First, India should continue in the recent directions of setting up autonomous campuses of eminent global universities, encourage them to offer unique, STEM and business courses, such as game design, emphasising research-intensive education with global exchange opportunities.
Second, NITI Aayog’s recommendation of developing large-scale EduCities—modelled after Singapore’s Global Schoolhouse or Dubai International Academic City—could be the ideal launchpads for integrated, multi-institutional campuses with world-class facilities that support multidisciplinary learning and job creation in emerging sectors.
Third, the government can initiate a digital platform enabling Indian students to begin degrees online with international universities and complete them in India or abroad, akin to Germany’s “Start in Germany, Finish Anywhere” model. This would offer flexibility, cost-effectiveness, resilience against visa or travel disruptions, and support global mobility without long-term migration concerns.
Fourth, similar to ‘Destination Australia’, India should also decentralise higher education hubs, fast-track infrastructural development, accreditation and faculty development in regional universities, and set up a scholarship fund for students to study in regional institutes. This will support regional universities and distribute educational benefits evenly across the country.
Fifth, India should enable the expansion of Indian universities, such as the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), to other countries, particularly strengthening South-South cooperation and global engagement. Indian edtech or private universities, such as Ashoka, Plaksha or Amity, can respond to the moment by scaling access, quality, and global partnerships.
While the American dream now appears more complex and fraught with legal and procedural hurdles, India’s focus must be on safeguarding the academic and professional aspirations of Indian students, transforming policy and creating opportunities that may shift the destination, but keep the prospects intact.
Collectively, these initiatives will reduce dependence on overseas education and improve India’s participation in international rankings and position India as a rising hub for quality higher education. It will transform its current challenges into opportunities, ensuring its youth continue to access world-class education and remain globally competitive, regardless of shifting international policy landscapes.
While the American dream now appears more complex and fraught with legal and procedural hurdles, India’s focus must be on safeguarding the academic and professional aspirations of Indian students, transforming policy and creating opportunities that may shift the destination, but keep the prospects intact. It should also intensify its drive to become an affordable, high-quality global education hub, embracing the internationalisation of Indian education.
Arpan Tulsyan is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy, Observer Research Foundation.
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Arpan Tulsyan is a Senior Fellow at ORF’s Centre for New Economic Diplomacy (CNED). With 16 years of experience in development research and policy advocacy, Arpan ...
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