Nawaz Sharif ready for war against the 'selectors'

Former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has clearly signalled his intention to take head-on the military dictated and dominated ‘hybrid democracy’ model – more hybrid than democratic – nominally headed by the ‘selected’ Prime Minister Imran Khan. Addressing the multi-party conference (MPC) of the opposition, Nawaz Sharif made a speech that is not just a scathing indictment and expose of the current dispensation, but is also a rousing call for action against the distorted, degraded and defiled ‘democracy’ that obtains in Pakistan. This is the first time any political leader has launched such an open, frontal assault on the Pakistani military. But will fighting words translate into actual fighting where it matters – in the streets? Will the opposition parties take their lead from Nawaz Sharif? Or will everything just fizzle out in a few days and Pakistani politicians will go back to doing what they do best – boot polish, a colloquial expression in Pakistan to refer to politicians’ propensity to appease and propitiate the military.

Nawaz minced no words in excoriating the military’s interference in politics, its manipulation of elections and stealing the verdict of the people, and its flirtation with terrorist groups which have earned Pakistan a terrible reputation. Referring to a speech by former Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani who had in 2011 declared that “there cannot be a state within the state, and no institution could claim it was not under the government”, Nawaz Sharif said things had become worse since then and now there was a “state above the state”, which is at the root of all Pakistan's problems. In his nearly one hour long speech, Nawaz Sharif was defiant and appeared to be very much in his “I will not take any dictation” mood that he first displayed in his first term as Prime Minister when he took on the then President, Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1993. He lambasted the hybrid system which he said turned a blind eye to the corruption of generals like Asim Bajwa. He questioned as to why no suo moto notice was taken by the courts, no Joint Investigation Teams formed, no NAB references filed against Bajwa, no media trials of the retired general with unexplained wealth, all of which is done against politicians. Nawaz pointed to how independent judges had been hounded and even ousted from office, the press muzzled, the economy ruined, diplomacy tattered by the ‘unelected’, incompetent and fascist hybrid regime. Dismissing Imran Khan as a nobody, Nawaz Sharif declared that the fight wasn’t against the puppet, but against the puppeteers who had foisted this regime on the hapless people of Pakistan. In other words, he openly aimed all his guns at the Pakistan Army which he blamed for bringing the country to the brink of ruination.

Dismissing Imran Khan as a nobody, Nawaz Sharif declared that the fight wasn’t against the puppet, but against the puppeteers who had foisted this regime on the hapless people of Pakistan. In other words, he openly aimed all his guns at the Pakistan Army which he blamed for bringing the country to the brink of ruination

While Nawaz Sharif has made clear his intentions and his preference for solid, coordinated and cooperative steps that need to be taken to force out the Imran Khan regime from office, he has said that he will go with the general consensus that is arrived at the MPC. There is some talk that Nawaz Sharif’s speech is part of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PMLN) playbook in which Nawaz Sharif (and his daughter Maryam) play the bad-cop, while his younger brother and the president of the party, Shahbaz Sharif, plays good-cop. The way this works is that after Nawaz breathes fire and shakes up the ‘establishment’, Shahbaz reaches out and makes the deal. That the brothers might still be playing by this playbook cannot entirely be ruled out. But if the grapevine is to be believed, Nawaz Sharif is all set to burn his boats and his bridges with the military establishment and Shahbaz will have no choice but to play by what Nawaz decides. Shahbaz could of course make a break with his brother. But political pundits claim that on his own Shahbaz, while a proven administrator, is hardly a vote getter. The PMLN vote is that of Nawaz Sharif and increasingly his daughter. They can bring the crowds out, not Shahbaz.

The problem is, however, that PMLN isn’t exactly known for its street power. It remains the most popular party in Punjab and some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but its cadre and supporters aren’t the street fighting types. Although, Maryam Nawaz has managed to draw impressive crowds whenever she has ventured out – she was in fact arrested the last time she started holding rallies across Punjab because the government panicked at the public response –there is some concern if even she will be able to sustain the momentum on the streets when the empire strikes back. This means that PMLN will need other opposition parties participation to create the environment that will make Imran Khan’s continuance completely untenable.

The Pakistan Peoples Party which organised the MPC is now limited to only urban Sindh and some pockets of South Punjab. Even so, it can bring its cadres (whatever remains of them) on to the streets. But will the PPP want to endanger its provincial government in Sindh? While the PPP would certainly like to raise the pressure on the Imran Khan regime to make it back off from persecuting or prosecuting its top leadership, it will not want to push things to a point where it could end up losing its government in Sindh. Every time the PPP so much as bares its fangs, the corruption cases reappear and talk starts about how the federal government can replace or displace the PPP’s majority in Sindh. The other major party in opposition is Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s eponymous Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUIF). The clerics party doesn’t win too many seats in Parliament has the street power and a committed cadre which it demonstrated last November. Plus it controls a large part  of the pulpit. But the wily Maulana is still smarting over not just being left in the lurch by the PMLN and PPP, but also the false promises which made him call off his power play last year. Also, in recent months, old corruption inquiries have been resurrected by the NAB to force the Maulana to pipe down. Other smaller parties from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan are bit players. They can add to the numbers but only on the margins.

The PMLN too isn’t exactly in a good position. Within the first family of the party, Nawaz is in virtual exile. His two sons are apolitical and in any case can’t return as they have been declared absconders as has Nawaz. Shahbaz’s political heir Hamza is in prison for over an year now. His other son and one of his sons-in law are both absconding. Both face corruption cases. Recently the NAB has tightened the noose around Shahbaz and summoned him, his wife and daughter. The PTI regime has broken an unwritten rule of Pakistan politics which is to leave the women and children out of the political fight. Imran Khan has shown his class (or the lack of it) by targeting families of his opponents to pressure them into silence or subservience. Former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi who was kept in jail on trumped up charges now has his son in the NAB’s cross-hairs. Former Punjab Minister Rana Sanaullah who was arrested on a palpably fake narcotics case is now being charged with assets disproportionate to income. Imran’s estranged crony Jehangir Tareen’s son is now being targeted along with the father on a case of corporate corruption. Former defence and foreign minister Khawaja Asif is routinely threatened with jail. He seems to have softened his stand and is believed to have moved in favour of Shahbaz’s policy of appeasing the military instead of Nawaz’s policy of confronting the military. There are visible divisions within the PMLN between those who want to toe Shahbaz’s soft line and those who favour Nawaz’s hard line. But even the soft line proponents realise that their moderate stand has only emboldened the ‘selected’ government and instead of giving them some space, has only constricted their space further.

Against this political backdrop, the MPC has decided to launch an anti-government drive under the banner of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). The opposition has demanded Imran Khan’s resignation, which they know they won’t get. Next month, they will hold a series of joint protest rallies across the country and build the momentum for launching a Long March in January next to press for the ouster of the government. The timing is interesting. The rumour in Islamabad is that if Imran Khan government isn’t able to shape up and start delivering by December, it will have to ship out – apparently the ‘deep state’ is now getting seriously concerned over the drift in affairs of state. There are also unconfirmed rumours of disquiet in the top echelons of the military over the Army Chief’s backing of Imran Khan as well as soft-peddling on the Asim Bajwa case. Also, in March next the Senate elections have to take place. Imran Khan’s party is expected to win a majority in the Senate after these elections, which will make it even more unbearable. Whatever has to happen, it has to happen before March. January is therefore well timed, provided the opposition can actually pull off what it is aiming for.

Imran Khan’s party is expected to win a majority in the Senate after these elections, which will make it even more unbearable. Whatever has to happen, it has to happen before March. January is therefore well timed, provided the opposition can actually pull off what it is aiming for

And therein lies the rub. The hybrid regime will almost certainly go to the next level in persecuting its political opponents. There is likely to be a flurry of cases – old and new – to fix the opposition before it can launch any movement. What is more, while Nawaz Sharif would have certainly energised his constituency with his fighting speech, he would have really spooked the military, and incentivised it to double-down on its support for Imran. Of course, a lot will depend on how things shape up going forward. If the opposition movement gains the required momentum, the army could well decide to get rid of Imran and live to fight another day. But if the opposition is unable to get its act together, then Pakistan will continue to suffer Imran for some more time.

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• Neighbourhood
• Pakistan
• Imran Khan
• Khyber
• Nawaz Sharif
• Pakistan Army

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