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Mozambique stands at a breaking point, as contested elections, economic unrest, and violent insurgency collide to destabilise democracy and the region.
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Mozambique stands at a pivotal moment, caught in a web of political instability, authoritarian tendencies, economic disparity, and a persistent insurgency. The 2024 elections highlighted the country’s fragile democratic trajectory, marked by accusations of fraud, widespread protests, and a harsh state crackdown. Straddling the line between autocracy and democracy, Mozambique faces mounting pressure, within both domestic and international realms, without a clear path forward.
The 2024 elections triggered an unprecedented wave of public dissent, challenging the long-standing grip of the ruling FRELIMO (Frente de Libertação de Moçambique) party. Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane disputed President Daniel Francisco Chapo's victory, citing widespread irregularities. His allegations sparked mass demonstrations, reflecting deep public mistrust in the electoral system and growing demands for political accountability.
The state’s heavy-handed response—including the violent dispersal of protests and the assassination of Mondlane’s lawyer Paulo Gwambe and party member Elvino Dias—underscored FRELIMO’s continued reliance on repression. These events highlight the fragility of Mozambique’s democratic institutions and threaten to deepen political polarisation.
The 2024 elections triggered an unprecedented wave of public dissent, challenging the long-standing grip of the ruling FRELIMO (Frente de Libertação de Moçambique) party.
Chapo assumed office on 15 January 2025. India was represented by Shri Dammu Ravi, Secretary (Economic Relations), Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
The post-election unrest has severely impacted Mozambique’s economy and regional trade. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to renegotiate a new agreement. Demonstrations and strikes in key urban centres have often paralysed commercial activity and disrupted supply chains. The Port of Maputo, a critical regional trade hub, has curtailed operations, affecting neighbouring countries, especially South Africa, which depends on the port for more than half its chrome exports.
The suspension of cross-border transport and closure of key routes have strained the interconnected Southern African Development Community (SADC) economies, illustrating how domestic instability in Mozambique reverberates across the region.
Mozambique's vast Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) reserves could transform its economic future. However, ongoing political instability and an entrenched jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado threaten these ambitions. The insurgency, led by Ansar al-Sunna, has displaced over a million people and jeopardised major LNG investments. Despite some military gains by Rwandan forces and others, the government’s failure to address the underlying grievances—economic exclusion and lack of resource-sharing—continues to fuel the violence.
International energy companies remain wary, as insecurity and weak governance create a high-risk environment that could delay or deter investment and prevent Mozambique from capitalising on its natural resources.
Despite some military gains by Rwandan forces and others, the government’s failure to address the underlying grievances—economic exclusion and lack of resource-sharing—continues to fuel the violence.
Mozambique's current challenges are deeply rooted in its post-independence history. Following its liberation from Portugal in 1975, the country plunged into a 16-year civil war between FRELIMO and RENAMO (Resistência Nacional Moçambicana). Though the 1992 peace agreement introduced multiparty democracy, FRELIMO has retained power through alleged electoral manipulation.
The aftermath of the 2024 elections mirrors this legacy—suppression of dissent, fraudulent electoral practices, and politically motivated killings continue to erode democratic norms. A culture of fear and political exclusion hinders the emergence of a vibrant, accountable democratic system.
Mozambique’s elections have long been marred by accusations of manipulation, including voter intimidation and biased oversight. The 2024 election only deepened public scepticism. International observers condemned the irregularities, but FRELIMO's dominance over state institutions allows it to retain power while projecting a veneer of democracy.
The lack of accountability for electoral misconduct reinforces a system where Opposition voices are silenced and citizen disillusionment grows. This democratic erosion undermines the legitimacy of the government and perpetuates instability.
Despite its resource wealth, Mozambique struggles with deep economic inequality and widespread corruption. Economic benefits are concentrated among elites tied to FRELIMO, leaving the majority disenfranchised. The 2016 ‘hidden debt scandal’, involving US$2 billion in undisclosed loans, triggered a financial crisis and exposed the rot at the highest government levels.
Economic benefits are concentrated among elites tied to FRELIMO, leaving the majority disenfranchised.
Persistent structural challenges—poor infrastructure, limited skilled labour, overregulation, and a lack of economic diversification—further constrain development. These issues and perceptions of exclusion fuel public resentment and social unrest.
Since 2017, the jihadist-led insurgency in Cabo Delgado has triggered a humanitarian catastrophe. Armed groups exploit local grievances over economic exclusion, especially regarding the region’s natural gas wealth. Over a million people have been displaced, including 60,000 children in a single month, many separated from their families and at risk of abuse or recruitment into armed groups.
The crisis has decimated local services—over 100 schools have shut down, disrupting education for more than 50,000 children. Cholera outbreaks, such as in Nampula's Erati district, where 45,000 displaced people have taken refuge, compound the suffering. Access to clean water, healthcare, and mental health services is scarce, while food insecurity is worsening in a country where 80 percent of the population relies on agriculture. With limited arable land, conflict-driven disruptions threaten to push more communities into poverty.
Historically, the state tightly controlled information. However, social media has begun to shift the narrative. During the 2024 protests, digital platforms played a key role in mobilising demonstrators and countering state propaganda, even as the government resorted to internet shutdowns.
Social media provides alternative avenues for civic engagement and could reshape political dynamics across Mozambique and the region.
While misinformation and state-led manipulation remain concerns, the emergence of digital activism, particularly among urban youth, marks a significant shift. Social media provides alternative avenues for civic engagement and could reshape political dynamics across Mozambique and the region. 43 percent of Mozambique’s population is under 15, and over a third of 20–25-year-olds are unemployed, fuelling a youth crisis. In this harsh economic climate, recent protests and shutdowns reflect growing frustration.
Mozambique’s reliance on foreign aid gives international actors leverage to press for reforms. However, due to its LNG potential, the country’s strategic importance complicates this dynamic, with global powers prioritising stability over accountability.
Despite escalating needs, humanitarian funding remains dangerously low. The UNICEF (The United Nations Children’s Fund) alone has appealed for US$5 million for urgent aid, but faces major shortfalls. This disconnect between international concern and concrete support risks prolonging the suffering of displaced populations and delaying long-term recovery.
In Mozambique, dissatisfaction with FRELIMO has coalesced around Venâncio Mondlane, who leveraged social media to mobilise from abroad, tapping into urban frustration and youth activism.
Suspicions of electoral fraud and political repression have haunted Mozambique since the early 1990s. But the 2024 protests signal a potentially deeper turning point. Across Southern Africa, long-dominant liberation parties are facing growing resistance—from South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) to Zimbabwe’s Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). In Mozambique, dissatisfaction with FRELIMO has coalesced around Venâncio Mondlane, who leveraged social media to mobilise from abroad, tapping into urban frustration and youth activism.
Ethnic tensions have also resurfaced. While President Nyusi hailed from Cabo Delgado, his Makonde ethnicity drew accusations of ‘Makondisation’ of the state, particularly within security institutions. This perception of ethnic favouritism further deepens regional and political divides, especially with historically marginalised groups like the Macua. President Chapo is from the Sofala Province, near the Port of Beira.
Mozambique’s trajectory remains uncertain. The future will hinge on several interlinked factors: the stabilisation of LNG projects, demographic shifts, and the roles of external actors, including the SADC, Rwanda, and the United States. However urgent challenges lie in addressing internal political and security dynamics.
Two key conclusions emerge—first, the post-civil war political model has failed to deliver inclusive development and lasting peace. Second, FRELIMO faces a serious legitimacy crisis. Without tackling systemic corruption, economic marginalisation, and the grievances driving insurgency, Mozambique risks remaining trapped in a cycle of violence, repression, and uncertainty.
India's main exports to Mozambique include refined petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, while Mozambique's primary exports to India are coking coal, cashew nuts, and raw agricultural products.
India and Mozambique have a growing trade relationship with a total trade value reaching nearly US$4.4 billion in 2023–24. India's main exports to Mozambique include refined petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, while Mozambique's primary exports to India are coking coal, cashew nuts, and raw agricultural products. India is also a major importer of coal from Mozambique. India has Foreign Direct Investments in coal and gas amounting to US$10 billion, with an equal amount awaiting settled conditions.
Mozambique is an important energy and security partner for India. Recently, a new Defence Advisor office was naugurated at the High Commission in Maputo. India has also gifted two water-jet propelled Fast Interceptor Craft (FIC) to the Government of Mozambique on 8 November 2024. The Indian Navy has acted as the first responder to provide Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in Mozambique, and has participated in Indian-led initiatives in the Indian Ocean region.
Mozambique has engaged in Indian-led efforts in the Indian Ocean as well. As SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) enters its second decade, India launched Indian Ocean Ship (IOS) Sagar and AIKEYME (Africa-India Key Maritime Engagement) under MAHASAGAR, reinforcing the Indian Navy’s role as the ‘Preferred Security Partner’ and ‘First Responder’ across the region. AIKEYME included Mozambique personnel and the Indian Ocean Ship (IOS) Sagar, which operated in the Mozambique Exclusive Economic Zone.
Mozambique’s instability affects the Indian Ocean, now central to the Indo-Pacific for India, Japan, and France. The insurgency threatens the strategic Mozambique Channel. India and France, with active programmes in the Western Indian Ocean, can collaborate to secure maritime traffic and protect offshore investments through coordinated maritime security efforts.
Gurjit Singh has served as India's ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union.
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Gurjit Singh has served as Indias ambassador to Germany Indonesia Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He is the Chair of CII Task Force on ...
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