Expert Speak Terra Nova
Published on Nov 02, 2021
Africa continues to face the sharp end of climate change and evidence suggests that the countries of the continent are already committing some resources of their own to adaptation efforts
Mobilising Resources for a Low-Carbon, Climate-Resilient Africa

This piece is part of the essay series, Towards a Low-Carbon and Climate-Resilient World: Expectations from COP26


Fossil resources have enabled a revolutionary wave of innovation across societies since the beginning of the 20th century, but they come with not-so-hidden costs. Since Swedish scientist, Svante August Arrhenius, established in 1896 the contribution of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil resources to global warming,<1> there has been scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are primarily responsible for climate change.

In August 2021, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its much-awaited report on the state of climate science, its sixth such document since 1988. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) by IPCC Working Group 1 underlined that human influence has incontrovertibly and significantly modified the Earth’s climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years. The report further warned that the world would face severe, pervasive, and irreversible climate impacts even with 1.5-degree Celsius warming, and such degrees of warming would likely entail high, multiple, and interrelated climate risks for poor and vulnerable regions, including small islands and least developed countries.<2>

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) by IPCC Working Group 1 underlined that human influence has incontrovertibly and significantly modified the Earth’s climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.

Africa, home to the majority of the world’s least developed countries, is disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change despite being responsible for only a small share of global carbon dioxide emissions. In the coming decades, the continent is expected to be one of the hotspots of vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change.<3> Eight African countries are among the 10 most vulnerable countries in the world.<4> Some parts of sub-Saharan Africa are projected to lose between 2 and 7 percent of their GDP by the year 2100 due to rising temperatures.<5> The vulnerability is exacerbated by multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stress factors that also constrain Africa’s adaptive capacity.

The current decade is pivotal for climate action in Africa where the link between climate change and sustainable development is a two-way street. As with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Africa’s strategic and endogenous development plan, Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want is inextricably linked to climate action. Climate change is negatively affecting the ability of many African countries to achieve both Agendas 2030 and 2063 by impacting their GDPs, national budgets, livelihoods and communities, infrastructure, finance, and costs of adaptation.<6> Both Agendas 2030 and 2063 recognise climate change as a critical challenge to sustainable development. The interconnections of the two Agendas offer platforms for African countries to advance an integrated approach to achieve and sustain stability for economic growth and equitable human development—this remains the greatest and most immediate development challenge in most African countries.<7>

Given the obvious and increasing threat posed by unmitigated climate change impacts to Africa’s development and livelihoods of millions of Africans, there is a growing call for transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient Africa. While the concept of resiliency emerged in the 1970s in ecological research and was also widely considered from the perspective of socio-economic development, the concept of a climate-resilient economy appeared in the 2015 economic considerations in the context of the Paris Agreement.<8>  The concept of low-carbon, climate-resilient development (LCCRD) emerged as a key way of framing policy and action to address climate change, capturing the need for mitigation and adaptation efforts to be fully integrated into development planning and implementation.<9> Experts acknowledge that climate change is a pandemic enabler and accelerant.<10> The Covid-19 pandemic—the latest evidence of the unsustainability of human activities on planetary health—has further shifted public sentiment in favour of a more inclusive, equitable, sustainable, and climate-resilient development.<11>

Climate change is negatively affecting the ability of many African countries to achieve both Agendas 2030 and 2063 by impacting their GDPs, national budgets, livelihoods and communities, infrastructure, finance, and costs of adaptation.

Africa’s capacity to adopt low-carbon development pathways is extremely weak and the road to building capacity for the transition is a complex and multidimensional undertaking, fraught with many difficulties. The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Competitive Report highlights the heavy lifting required in adopting low-carbon development pathways in the continent.<12> Sub-Saharan Africa is the least competitive region in the world, performing poorly in human capital, innovation capability, infrastructure, and institutions. These shortcomings continue to impede the continent from maximising its abundant bioenergy potential and rich solar resources to meet its energy needs. The WEF’s report showed that Africa must focus on targeted long-term public investments to support R&D activities; building efficient innovation system; improving the level of education, training, and skills of the population; and supporting market development to enhance competiveness. Equally important for Africa to transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy is improving general governance, reinforcing legal and regulatory frameworks, strengthening national institutions, and building quality infrastructure.

Building low-carbon, climate-resilient economies and societies come with heavy costs. The required investment is far beyond what can be accommodated by public finance of African countries that are already reeling under pressure. Public revenue generations are poor, debt levels are rising, and the continent—which has low revenue-to-GDP ratios—is confronting some of the most onerous debt servicing obligations in the world.<13>  Therefore, securing a low-carbon development future without sacrificing urgently needed development remains a critical challenge for African countries. However, rather than a problem of capital generation, the key challenge in financing the transition to a low-carbon society is to redirect existing and planned capital flows from traditional high- to low-carbon climate-resilient investments.<14>

Estimates peg the amounts required by Africa to transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy in the hundreds of billions of dollars. These include an estimated USD 222 billion in climate resilience investments, USD 377 billion for climate mitigation investments,<15> and more than USD 600 billion over the next 10-20 years at the range of USD 20-30 billion per year in climate adaptation till 2030.<16> Together, African countries will require approximately USD 3 trillion by 2030 to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.<17>

The global community recognises the importance of climate finance in achieving substantial reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and securing a low-carbon development future. As such, it has established several multilateral climate funds to disburse funding to developing countries to help meet the cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The funds are capitalised primarily by developed countries in recognition of their greater historical responsibility for current atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, the 2009 pledge by developed countries to jointly mobilise USD 100 billion annually in support of climate action in developing countries is insufficient to finance a global transition to clean energy and to meet the adaptation needs of the world's most vulnerable countries.<18>,<19>Overall, investments in adaptation and resilience-building around the world still fall short of documented needs to avoid severe economic and human impacts from climate change, especially in developing countries.<20>

It has established several multilateral climate funds to disburse funding to developing countries to help meet the cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries for developing countries increased by 2 percent from USD 78.3 billion in 2018 to USD 79.6 billion in 2019, or USD 20-billion short of the 2020 target. The marginal increase was driven by a rise in public climate finance while private climate finance dropped by 4 percent.<21> Yet, transitioning to a low-carbon, climate-resilient Africa hinges on unlocking  private climate finance which has emerged as an important source of climate finance, and is more effective than public climate finance in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.<22>,<23> Private fund and institutional capital remain the biggest and largely untapped pool of capital for climate action and resilience and will unquestionably be key in closing the funding gap of transformation to a low-carbon and climate-resilient Africa.

There is no better arena than COP26 to deepen the solidarity and diplomacy for climate action in Africa. The African Group of Negotiators need a unified voice at COP26 to build bridges with the growing global coalition committed to net-zero emissions by 2050. The other stakeholders include the Group of 77 and the Small Island Developing States (SIDS), who are equally invested in the goals of achieving laudable wins around emission cuts, climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building. Indeed, this conference will be the most important meeting on the climate emergency yet, since the 2015 Paris summit. Beyond extracting favourable deals at COP26, Africa must walk the talk by heeding the call by Rt Hon Alok Sharma MP, President for COP26, to submit more ambitious NDCs at the conference.

Finance will make or break Africa at COP26. It is one of the conference’s four discussion points, and reinforces the other three – mitigation, adaptation, and collaboration.  Africa attracted USD 18.5 billion in private climate finance over 2016-19. This was 26 percent of the total on average of climate finance over the period, following Asia with 43 percent. <24>

Africa is the world’s fastest-growing continent and is full of opportunities for growth. In demanding and negotiating for private climate finance flows at COP26, the representatives of the continent must depart from presenting Africa as a vulnerable case. Instead they must build an economic case, with bountiful commercial opportunities across keystone sectors such as power generation, agriculture and agro-industries, retail and commodities, metal and mineral processing, infrastructure, tourism, and relocation of goods and people. These opportunities in climate mitigation include the decarbonisation of electricity generation, renewable and clean energy technologies, afforestation and reforestation, bioenergy production, and resource-efficient technological solutions and processes. Those in climate adaptation include introduction of new crop varieties, more efficient irrigation, sustainable forest management, early warning and information sharing systems, soil and water conservation, livelihood diversification, and improvement of infrastructures.<25>

A record number of 587 investors with USD 46 trillion in assets under management are signatories to the 2021 Global Investor Statement to Governments on Climate Crisis urging governments to raise their climate ambitions at COP26. The priority areas where these institutional investors and asset managers demand action, are implementing mandatory climate risk disclosure, strengthened national commitments for 2030, commitment to build-back-better from the Covid-19 pandemic, ending fossil fuel subsidies, and implementing domestic policies to incentivise private investments in zero-emissions solutions and outcomes.<26> Africa’s policymakers must observe these areas to attract private climate finance. There are various strategic levers required to convince the COP26 Business Leaders Group to accelerate the shift in business investments for orderly climate-positive activities and outcomes in Africa. These include stronger commitments to rule of law, agreement on clear policy directions, common regulatory frameworks, specific mechanisms to implement climate targets across the Africa, active engagement with investors, and advocacy with relevant stakeholders including NGOs transnational initiatives and conservation organisations.

In demanding and negotiating for private climate finance flows at COP26, the representatives of the continent must depart from presenting Africa as a vulnerable case.

Africa continues to face the sharp end of climate change and evidence suggests that the countries of the continent are already committing some resources of their own to adaptation efforts. However, the Africa’s Adaptation Gap 2 report has noted that implementation of climate action can only reach its full potential if complemented by comprehensive and effective national and regional policy planning, capacity-building, and governance.<27> More is achievable with public policy discussions and decisions around fiscal incentives, legal and regulatory reforms, human capital, technology transfer and acquisition, innovation system, and infrastructural development, amongst other supportive measures. The future is clear; the direction for Africa is away from fossil fuels towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy.

Download the PDF of the report here.


<1> Svante August Arrhenius, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground,” Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 5 (1986): 237-276.

<2> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,  ed. Valérie Masson-Delmotte et al. (Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press, 2021), In Press.

<3> World Meteorology Organization, State of the Climate in Africa 2019, Geneva, WMO, 2020.

<4> Richard Marcantonio et al., “Global Distribution and Coincidence of Pollution, Climate Impacts, and Health Risk in the Anthropocene,” PLOS ONE, 16 (2021): e0254060.

<5> Rebecca Clements, The Economic Cost of Climate Change in Africa, Nairobi, Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, 2009.

<6> World Meteorology Organization, State of the Climate in Africa 2019, Geneva, WMO, 2020.

<7> Oluwaseun J. Oguntuase, “Africa: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Must Be a Two-way Street,The Africa Report, December 10, 2020.

<8> Dariusz Pieńkowski and Wojciech Zbaraszewski, “The Concept of Climate Resilient Economy from the Perspective of Local Communities,” Ekonomia i Środowisko 1(2019): 204-213.

<9> Jessica Boyle et al., Exploring Trends in Low-carbon, Climate-resilient Development, Manitoba: International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2013.

<10> Arturo Casadevall, “Climate Change Brings the Specter of New Infectious Diseases,” The Journal of Clinical Investigation, 130(2020): 553-555.

<11> Samson Mukanjari and Thomas Sterner, “Charting a “Green Path” for Recovery from COVID-19. Environmental and Resource Economics, 76(2020): 825-853.

<12> The World Economic Forum, Global Competitive Report 2019, Cologny, WEF, 2020.

<13> César Calderón and Albert Zeufack, Borrow With Sorrow? The Changing Risk Profile of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Debt, Washington DC, World Bank, 2020.

<14> Yannick Glemarec, “Financing the Transition to a Low-carbon Society,” Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 2(2010): 031013.

<15> Geoffrey Adonu, “Unlocking Climate Finance in Africa: The Role of African Multilateral Development Banks,” The Gravitas Review of Business and Property Law, 11(2020): 90-100.

<16> Africa Development Bank, The Cost of Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa, Abidjan: ADB, 2011.

<17>Climate Action: African Development Bank Calls for Global Collaboration to Turn Nationally Determined Contributions into Investment Plans,African Development Bank, March 20, 2019.

<18> Amar Bhattacharya et al., Delivering on the $100 Billion Climate Finance Commitment and Transforming Climate Finance, New York, United Nations, 2020.

<19> Susanne Moser et al., “Adaptation Finance Archetypes: Local Governments’ Persistent Challenges of Funding Adaptation to Climate Change and Ways to Overcome Them,” Ecology and Society, 24 (2019):28.

<20> Arame Tall et al., Enabling Private Investment in Climate Adaptation and Resilience: Current Status, Barriers to Investment and Blueprint for Action, Washington DC, World Bank, 2021.

<21> Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Climate Finance Provided and Mobilized by Developed Countries: Aggregate Trends Updated with 2019 Data, Paris, OECD, 2021.

<22> Alexander Lehman, Private Sector Climate Finance after the Crisis, Washington DC, Center for Global Development, 2020.

<23> Claire Gavard and Niklas Schoch, Climate Finance and Emission Reductions: What Do the Last Twenty Years Tell Us?, Mannheim, ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, 2021.

<24> Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Climate Finance Provided and Mobilized by Developed Countries: Aggregate Trends Updated with 2019 Data, Paris, OECD, 2021.

<25> Tsegaye Ginbo et al., “Investing in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: A Methodological Review of Real-options Studies,” Ambio, 50(2021):229-241.

<26> The Investor Agenda, 2021 Global Investor Statement to Governments on the Climate Crisis, September 14, 2021.

<27> Michiel Schaeffer et al., Africa’s Adaptation Gap 2, Nairobi, United Nations Environment Programme, 2021.

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Contributor

Oluwaseun J. Oguntuase

Oluwaseun J. Oguntuase

Oluwaseun J. Oguntuase is a PhD candidate in Environment and Sustainability at the Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainable Development Lagos State University Nigeria.

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