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As the United States (US) grapples with evolving international dynamics under Trump 2.0, the Philippines faces complex challenges to its decisions on defence and security alliances. While Washington continues to reaffirm its ironclad commitment to the Philippines, Manila must remain proactive, flexible, and vigilant in securing its long-term interests.
Over the past two years, the China Coast Guard (CCG) has ramped up its operations in key areas of the Philippines’ 200 nautical miles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), including the Second Thomas Shoal, the Sabina Shoal, and Sand Cay (also known as Bailan Island). Additionally, the CCG as of late, has also been conducting intrusive patrols (although China has chosen to remain silent on these observations) close to the shores of the Philippine provinces of Pangasinan and Zambales to intimidate Manila.
Trump's transactional foreign policy approach raises questions about the future of the US-Philippine alliance, especially with the shifting geopolitical landscape and new emerging global priorities.
Given the power imbalance between China and the Philippines, Manila has sought to strengthen its defence ties with the United States. This aligns with a broader regional strategy to counterbalance Beijing’s increasing influence. However, the Philippines must practice caution. Trump's transactional foreign policy approach raises questions about the future of the US-Philippine alliance, especially with the shifting geopolitical landscape and new emerging global priorities.
Navigating Trump’s foreign policy shift
The Trump administration’s early foreign policy moves, such as the expansionist rhetoric about the Panama Canal and Greenland, signal a focus on safeguarding the strategic interests of the US. The concern that China could leverage its growing presence in key maritime chokepoints, including the Panama Canal, underscores the broader competition between Washington and Beijing in global maritime spaces.
China has concurrently been deepening its economic footprint in South America, primarily through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which Panama is also a member. In the north, China presents itself as a ‘near-Arctic’ nation to justify its growing maritime presence in the northern sea route. What adds to Washington’s worries is a scenario where China eventually sends in its military vessels through Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom or the GIUK Gap, which connects the Atlantic Ocean with the Arctic.
While the trajectory of Trump’s policies has undergone shifts, an emphasis on military restraint in regions like Europe and the Middle East, his administration’s attention remains on China as a central challenge to the strategic interests of the US.
Notwithstanding that, the Trump administration has managed to convince Panama to exit Beijing’s BRI, it is yet to be seen whether Washington can pursue a holistic approach to curb Beijing's growing influence in its immediate neighbourhood.
However, the concern in Manila is palpable about the US potentially reverting to isolationism and letting go of its commitments in the Indo-Pacific, particularly towards its alliance with Manila. The question remains if the US will retreat from its Indo-Pacific commitments, or so it has exercised in its other alliances across the world.
Trump’s foreign policy decisions could most certainly affect the role US plays in the region, alongside staunch implications for Manila’s security, as well.
Two opposing themes have emerged in Trump’s foreign policy—one advocating for a reduced US military involvement globally and the other pushing for a more focused confrontation with China. These themes are not mutually exclusive per se but more complementary in nature, emphasising the reality that China does not only possess the capabilities but also the political will to considerably challenge the influence and global positioning of the US. Simultaneously, this contradiction also presents an equivalent set of opportunities and challenges for the Philippines. Trump’s foreign policy decisions could most certainly affect the role US plays in the region, alongside staunch implications for Manila’s security, as well.
A changing power dynamic
The Philippines, as a key regional partner, plays a crucial role in Washington’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy. However, given the high stakes, it is evident that negotiating with Beijing will require more than just US diplomatic muscle. At the same time, Manila is also concerned about how Trump pursues deals with competitors in ways that often bypass allieswhether it was the bilateral meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un or a potential deal over Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While these worries are warranted, Trump makes deals from a position of strength and dominance. In the Western Pacific, China has managed to tilt the balance of power through its considerable presence and reach in the South and East China Seas, and its vast financial clout. In fact, even prior to the US elections, China had already increased its maritime assets in key areas of the Western Pacific. In this regard, it will be more difficult for Trump to negotiate from a position of strength, given how the stakes have become too high for Beijing to back down from its posturing in the region.
The value the Philippines adds to the US is bound to only grow, and Manila's voice in regional security discussions will become increasingly important.
In this light, the importance of its Indo-Pacific allies and partners is likely to become more pronounced in Washington's regional vision. The declassified Indo-Pacific strategy of Trump’s first-term administration has also acknowledged this. However, rather than taking centre stage, such as in its immediate vicinity, Washington will likely play a more selectively collaborative role with key Indo-Pacific allies and partners seeking to constrain China's regional dominance. This will be done by bolstering the capabilities of key partners and compelling like-minded regional powers like India, Japan, and Australia to engage via a more robust role in balancing and checking China's activities in the maritime domain. As Trump’s Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth noted, "We don't want to fight wars, butto deter them." In this context, the value the Philippines adds to the US is bound to only grow, and Manila's voice in regional security discussions will become increasingly important.
Philippines’ role in a multi-polar world order
Under President Marcos Jr, the Philippines has shown its determination to secure its EEZ and strengthen its alliances. By aligning with key regional partners and maintaining a robust defence partnership with the US, Manila seeks to navigate an increasingly complex security environment. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent remarks highlighted that the future of US-China bilateral relations will depend on whether Beijing will respect Philippine sovereignty and territorial integrity. Additionally, he reiterated Washington’s ironclad commitment to the Philippines, within the ambit of which, Washington will likely continue to support Philippine efforts through capacity building and bilateral, and multilateral maritime presence operations.
Nonetheless, Washington’s transactional foreign policy approach highlights a cautionary tale for the Philippines despite these repeated assurances. It demands vigilance from the Philippines, especially in negotiating its security interests. Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy style requires Manila to maintain a multi-aligned approach, building strong relationships with other regional powers while also prioritising self-reliance in defence. This strategy will help buffer the Philippines from potential and tweaks in US policy that may arise as global challenges evolve.
The Philippines aims to rally international attention to China’s expansive claims and assert its position as a key advocate for a rules-based international order.
At the international stage, the Philippines is also positioning itself to play a more prominent role in multilateral diplomacy. The country is pursuing a non-permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the 2027-2028 term. This would provide Manila a platform to address regional disputes, particularly with China over its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Although any resolutions targeting China would likely be vetoed by Beijing, the symbolic value of such efforts cannot be underestimated. The Philippines aims to rally international attention to China’s expansive claims and assert its position as a key advocate for a rules-based international order.
The Philippines must remain proactive
As the Philippines positions itself as a key player in regional and global diplomacy, it must remain mindful of the evolving security landscape, as well. While its alliance with the US provides critical support, Manila must be prepared to act independently when the situation demands it, necessitating a diversified set of partnerships to ensure its long-term security. The Philippines must also prioritise self-reliance in defence and continue to strengthen its maritime capabilities.
In a world of shifting alliances and unpredictable global politics, the Philippines cannot afford to be complacent. The country must remain vigilant, flexible, and proactive in securing its sovereignty, ensuring that it can navigate the complexities of regional security with resilience and foresight.
Genevieve Donnellon-May is a research associate at the Asia Society Policy Institute and Asia Society Australia.
Don McLain Gill is a Philippines-based geopolitical analyst author and lecturer at the Department of International Studies De La Salle University (DLSU).
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
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