Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on Mar 24, 2023
With JP and the Nasheed group possibly stepping into the fray, the swing voters will play a deciding role in the upcoming elections
Maldives: How ‘swing voters’ matter in presidential polls Maldivian Elections Commission President Fuad Thaufeeq may have set the cat among the pigeons in the Opposition camp with his qualified statement that it is ‘highly probable’ that jailed PPM-PNC leader Abdulla Yameen may after all be allowed to contest the presidential polls (even) if the higher courts had not ruled on his appeal against an 11-year prison term in the second graft-cum-money laundering case by December end. Coming as it did after the EC’s declaration that 42 percent of the 283,000 voters have not signed into any political party, Fuad’s statement may also presage heavy-lift campaigns at the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan (22 March-21 April), especially after the Jumhooree Party (JP) partner in the ruling MDP alliance too decided to field a candidate against incumbent Ibrahim Solih. Under Article 109 (f) of the 2008 Constitution, three years should have lapsed after the completion of any jail term over 12 months for contesting the presidential poll. The same rule applies to presidential pardons, too. In Yameen’s case, the Supreme Court acquitted him in one case and his appeal against a five-year jail term is pending before the High Court. Trial in a third case is making slow progress in the criminal court, like the previous one. If the EC chief’s observation holds good, then it means that trial court verdicts could not impede Yameen’s right to contest the presidential election even during the pendency of his appeals. However, the EC president clarified that he needed to seek legal opinion before deciding on Yameen’s nomination, if filed.While there is no precedent in Maldives, under near-similar circumstances in other Commonwealth countries, for instance, in India, the Supreme Court held in the B R Kapoor vs State of Tamil Nadu, ‘Jayalalithaa case’that even a bail granted at the appeals stage applied only to the sentence part and not the conviction part, until finally disposed..
If the EC chief’s observation holds good, then it means that trial court verdicts could not impede Yameen’s right to contest the presidential election even during the pendency of his appeals.
The Yameen camp is selectively jubilant over Fuad Thaufeeq’s ‘high probability’ observation. His political aides have been launching periodic protests for his release. They are now seeking to have his imprisonment converted into ‘house arrest’ as in the previous case before the Supreme Court acquitted him. For its part, Yameen’s high-profile legal defence has since filed a modified appeal as instructed by the High Court and is hoping for an early hearing. Incidentally, the politically-loaded Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) has since advised the prosecutor-general to proceed against the Yameen era defence minister, Major-Gen Moosa Ali Jaleel (retd), in a money-laundering case. He promptly denied the charge. Despite denials to the contrary, the Solih camp were discouraged  when the JP’s council endorsed the party congress’ decision to contest the presidential poll after behind-the-scene efforts to influence the council reportedly failed. While party-sponsored Vice-President Faisal Naseem stayed away from the JP congress, indicating solidarity with Solih, a junior minister in the President’s Office, Ahmed Sameer, has since quit the party, following failed efforts to convince the leadership otherwise. Indications are that the JP leader Gasim Ibrahim will be contesting the presidential election for a third time, after committing ‘transferrable’ first-round votes to swing the decision as desired in 2008 and 2013. The Solih camp’s claim is rational given that the government cannot function with two presidential candidates in the coalition. Pending a possible solution to the Solih team’s demand for JP ministers to quit and Gasim’s parliamentary retort that the President should quit instead as the coalition that elected him in 2018 did not exist anymore, the latter’s wife and Transport Minister Aishath Nahula praised the incumbent at an official function for his ‘development efforts’ across islands, sending out mixed signals to party cadres.
After losing the MDP’s presidential primaries to Solih, Nasheed recently told Parliament that he was ready to take to the streets, to protest against the government.
The JP’s confusion may have been confounded after the EC chief’s announcement on Yameen’s candidacy, implying a division in the anti-Solih votes, which MDP president and Parliament Speaker Mohammed Nasheed was reportedly working to consolidate. After losing the MDP’s presidential primaries to Solih, Nasheed recently told Parliament that he was ready to take to the streets, to protest against the government. For his part, Solih met with his supporters in Parliament to discuss the JP’s decision, in which about 50 of 87 MPs were reportedly present. The MDP has a total of 65 MPs, and those present at Solih’s meeting may include alliance partners. Solih’s aides, starting with MDP parliamentary group leader Mohamed Aslam, are on record that the incumbent would win a second term even without the JP’s support.

Violent swings

EC president Fuad’s announcement that a high percentage of voters are non-affiliated adds to the inevitable campaign tensions. Past presidential polls had recorded an average 90-percent turnout, however these expectations are dampened by the low turnout in the nation-wide local government elections in 2021. For instance, in capital Malé accounting for a third of the nation’s population, the turnout was as low as 20 percent, and there is anxiety that the voter indifference of the time had more to do with overall disenchantment than the slow pace of COVID recovery. The presidential polls conducted since the nation embraced a multi-party democratic system have shown violent swings in poll percentages from one side of the political ideology to another. The first two, in 2008 and 2013, witnessed two rounds of polling. In 2018, Solih as the MDP-led coalition candidate recorded the first-ever first-round electoral victory in the country, with the highest ever 58-percent vote-share against incumbent Yameen. Unlike otherwise interpreted, Yameen’s single-handed 42 percent vote-share too was no mean effort, especially if he has been able to retain a substantial share of it, still.
EC president Fuad’s announcement that a high percentage of voters are non-affiliated adds to the inevitable campaign tensions.
Independent of the poll chief’s qualified positivity to Yameen’s candidacy just now the EC’s final decision in the matter alone would dictate the PPM-PNC combine’s decision in the matter. If Yameen’s candidacy is still declined, he could, citing Fuad’s current statement, move the Supreme Court. As may be recalled, the EC, once earlier headed by Fuad Thaufeeq, nearly clashed with the Supreme Court, which prevailed. Yameen became the President at the end of a controversial election in 2013, defeating MDP’s Nasheed by the lowest of margins in the second round.

Striking out on his own

Having worked for a common candidate against incumbent Yameen the last time around, that too from political asylum in the UK, this time, Speaker Nasheed is working to bring the Yameen and Gasim camps together after committing his supporters’ backing for a common candidate, this time against Solih, his estranged childhood friend and political protégé, but not after the incumbent began striking outon his own, on the party and governmental policies and programmes. Or, that is the general perception. Without naming Nasheed, Solih has begun pointing to contradictions in the former’s political conduct, by first opposing the MDP’s continuance in any coalition, and now working towards one (and against the party). For its part, the Yameen camp has confined itself to offering to work with the JP and the Nasheed faction in the MDP on issues of common concern. No one is talking as yet about a common Opposition candidate. Early on, Faaris Maumoon, MRM president and son of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, met with Gasim after the JP Congress decided on contesting the September polls. Belatedly, however, Gayoom has since met the President. According to the Solih camp, the MRM was setting up a negotiations committee to thrash details. The MRM is now a poor self of Gayoom’s 46-percent support-base when he lost the presidency to MDP’s Nasheed in the 2008 presidential polls. Gayoom’s estranged half-brother Yameen is believed to be the main beneficiary.
The MRM is now a poor self of Gayoom’s 46-percent support-base when he lost the presidency to MDP’s Nasheed in the 2008 presidential polls.
As of now, President Solih and retired army colonel, Mohamed Nazim, whose infant Maldives National Party (MNP) has named him as candidate, are in the presidential fray even as Yameen’s candidacy hangs in the legal balance, one way or the other. The JP is expected to announce its candidate at the end of the presidential primaries. Nazim has dismissed suggestions that he was fronting for Solih and no intention of cutting a deal with the other. Former attorney-general and MDP’s maiden president, Dr Mohamed Munavvar, too, has declared his intention to contest as an independent. He has denied social media suggestions that he was fronting for Nasheed, who had caused his departure from the party post just after a year, in the run-up to the 2008 presidential polls. Munavvar had campaigned for Nasheed in the last leg of the MDP primaries in January. In between, political parties will also be taking stock of the outcome of the Guraidhoo parliamentary by-election, scheduled for 15 April, in the middle of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan (22 March-21 April). The MDP (Solih faction), PPM and MNP are in the fray, and the by-election will also be watched for the roles played by the JP and the Nasheed group in the MDP.
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N. Sathiya Moorthy

N. Sathiya Moorthy

N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.

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